高层官员地震应急演练中应急决策行为的质性分析
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摘要
为了研究高层官员在非常规突发事件应对中的决策行为,通过地震应急演练,从决策建议的影响、决策对象的选择与优先级排序等方面对决策样本进行质性分析。应用NVivo12软件对某次高层官员参与的特大地震应急决策演练中采集的45份决策样本,在结构化处理的基础上确定编码标准,遍历样本并对应急决策编码,得到观测数据并进行分析。研究结果表明,演练中的高层官员决策行为有以下3方面特征:受决策建议影响明显;在灾情、舆情以及基础设施等方面有自主决策;不同层级间对决策权重排序存在显著差异。
In order to study the decision-making behavior of senior officials in the response of unconventional emergencies,the qualitative analysis of decision-making samples was carried out through the earthquake emergency drill from the aspects of the impact of decision-making recommendations,the selection of decision-making objects and the priority ranking. By using the NVivo12 software,45 decision-making samples collected from an emergency decision-making drill of great earthquake with the participation of senior officials were analyzed. The coding standard was determined on the basis of structured processing,then the code of emergency decision-making was traversed through the samples,and the observed data were obtained and analyzed. It was preliminarily found that the decision-making behavior of senior officials in the drill had the following characteristics,namely the obvious influence by the decision-making recommendations,the autonomous decision-making in the aspects of disaster situation,public opinion and infrastructure,and the significant differences in the ranking of decisionmaking weights among different levels.
In order to study the decision-making behavior of senior officials in the response of unconventional emergencies,the qualitative analysis of decision-making samples was carried out through the earthquake emergency drill from the aspects of the impact of decision-making recommendations,the selection of decision-making objects and the priority ranking. By using the NVivo12 software,45 decision-making samples collected from an emergency decision-making drill of great earthquake with the participation of senior officials were analyzed. The coding standard was determined on the basis of structured processing,then the code of emergency decision-making was traversed through the samples,and the observed data were obtained and analyzed. It was preliminarily found that the decision-making behavior of senior officials in the drill had the following characteristics,namely the obvious influence by the decision-making recommendations,the autonomous decision-making in the aspects of disaster situation,public opinion and infrastructure,and the significant differences in the ranking of decisionmaking weights among different levels.
引文
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[2]WILLIAMS T A,SHEPHERD D A.Building resilience or providing sustenance:different paths of emergent ventures in the aftermath of the Haiti Earthquake[J].Academy of Management Journal,2016,59(6):2069-2102.
[3]陈俊霖,李沁雪,张春萍,等.应急环境下时间压力和决策者风险态度对决策行为的影响实验研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(11):349-358.CHEN Junlin,LI Qinxue,ZHANG Chunping,et al.An experimental study on the effect of risk preferences and time constraint on emergency decision makings[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2015,23(11):349-358.
[4]张云翌,杨乃定.决策者情绪对应急决策的影响研究:一个理论框架[J].情报杂志,2015,34(10):65-70.ZHANG Yunyi,YANG Naiding.Mechanism study on how decisionmaker’s emotion affects the emergency decision-making:a theoretical framework[J].Journal of Intelligence,2015,34(10):65-70.
[5]邬群勇,方祺伟,孙振海.基于多词共现模型的灾害应急任务提取方法[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):1-8.WU Qunyong,FANG Qiwei,SUN Zhenhai.Disasters emergency task extraction method based on multiword cooccurrence model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(5):1-8.
[6]黄超,佘廉.文本案例推理技术在应急决策中的应用研究[J].情报理论与实践,2015,38(12):111-114.HUANG Chao,SHE Lian.Application of text case-based reasoning in emergency decision making[J].Information Studies:Theory&Application,2015,38(12):111-114.
[7]张炎亮,徐元元,李俊雅.不完备信息下基于案例推理的城市火灾应急决策方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(3):13-18.ZHANG Yanliang,XU Yuanyuan,LI Junya.Study on emergency decision-making method of urban fire based on case-based reasoning under incomplete information[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2018,14(3):13-18.
[8]张小兵,张然,解玉宾.我国应急演练管理研究新进展[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(10):68-72.ZHANG Xiaobing,ZHANG Ran,XIE Yubin.New research progress of emergency exercise management in China[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2016,12(10):68-72.
[9]郝阳,邓云峰,程五一.基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员应急决策行为分析框架[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(3):5-10.HAO Yang,DENG Yunfeng,CHENG Wuyi.An analysis framework for emergency decision-making behavior of senior officials based on scenario-response data[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(3):5-10.
[10]范维澄.国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议[J].中国科学基金,2007,21(2):71-76.FAN Weicheng.Advisement and suggestion to scientific problems of emergency management for public incidents[J].Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China,2007,21(2):71-76.
[11]钟开斌.应急决策---理论与案例[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014.