1960—2015年青藏高寒区与西北干旱区升温特征及差异
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摘要
利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检测、滑动t检验和Sen斜率法等对中国青藏高寒区和西北干旱区1960-2015年气温时空变化特征进行了对比研究。结果表明,整体来看,1960-2015年西北干旱区的气温升高幅度[0. 32℃·(10a)~(-1)]高于青藏高寒区[0. 29℃·(10a)~(-1)]。1960-1997年西北干旱区的气温升高幅度[0. 22℃·(10a)~(-1)]高于青藏高寒区[0. 14℃·(10a)~(-1)],1998-2015年青藏高寒区的气温变化呈现升温趋势[0. 22℃·(10a)~(-1)],西北干旱区的气温变化呈现微弱的降温趋势[-0. 02℃·(10a)~(-1)]。青藏高寒区气温显著升高的区域是柴达木盆地和高原西南部地区,西北干旱区气温显著升高的区域是新疆北部以及内蒙古西部地区。青藏高寒区与西北干旱区的气温年代际变化规律均表现为20世纪60-80年代为相对低温时期,20世纪90年代至今为相对高温时期。突变分析表明青藏高寒区与西北干旱区气温开始出现增长的时间基本相同,西北干旱区气温突变的时间为1993年,青藏高寒区气温突变的时间为1994年。
The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region has long been regarded as the starting area and amplifier for our country and the global climate change,but many studies have shown that the magnitude of climate change in the northwest arid region of China cannot be ignored. Based on this,using the linear trend analysis,the sliding t test,the Mann-Kendall mutation detection and the Sen slope method,the characteristics of temperature on spatial distribution pattern and the multiple-time scale variability are analyzed by the monthly temperature data of 130 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region and northwest arid region of China during the 1960-2015. The results showthat: On the whole,the annual mean temperature change rate of northwest arid region of China[0. 32 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1]was higher than Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region[0. 29 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1]during 1960-2015. However,the temperature variations of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau region and the northwest arid region of China were distinct in different time periods. The annual mean temperature change rate of northwest arid region of China[0. 22 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1]was far higher than Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region[0. 14 ℃·( 10 a)-1]during the time period of 1960-1997. At the same time,the temperature variation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region had a significant rising trend,at a rate of 0. 22 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1 during 1998-2015,and the temperature variation of northwest arid region of China had a slight cooling trend,at a rate of-0. 02 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1 during 1998-2015. The regions with temperature rise significantly in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region included the Qaidam basin and the southwestern region of the plateau. The regions with temperature rise significantly in northwest arid region of China included the northern region of Xinjiang and the western region of Inner Mongolia. The interdecadal variation of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region and northwest arid region of China were characterized by the relatively cold phase during 1960 s-1980 s,and the relatively warm phase after 1990 s. In addition,mutation analysis indicated that the temperature of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region and northwest arid region of China began to growin the same time,but the temperature mutation time of northwest arid region of China was in 1993,and the temperature mutation time of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region was in 1994.
The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region has long been regarded as the starting area and amplifier for our country and the global climate change,but many studies have shown that the magnitude of climate change in the northwest arid region of China cannot be ignored. Based on this,using the linear trend analysis,the sliding t test,the Mann-Kendall mutation detection and the Sen slope method,the characteristics of temperature on spatial distribution pattern and the multiple-time scale variability are analyzed by the monthly temperature data of 130 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region and northwest arid region of China during the 1960-2015. The results showthat: On the whole,the annual mean temperature change rate of northwest arid region of China[0. 32 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1]was higher than Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region[0. 29 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1]during 1960-2015. However,the temperature variations of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau region and the northwest arid region of China were distinct in different time periods. The annual mean temperature change rate of northwest arid region of China[0. 22 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1]was far higher than Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region[0. 14 ℃·( 10 a)-1]during the time period of 1960-1997. At the same time,the temperature variation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region had a significant rising trend,at a rate of 0. 22 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1 during 1998-2015,and the temperature variation of northwest arid region of China had a slight cooling trend,at a rate of-0. 02 ℃ ·( 10 a)-1 during 1998-2015. The regions with temperature rise significantly in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region included the Qaidam basin and the southwestern region of the plateau. The regions with temperature rise significantly in northwest arid region of China included the northern region of Xinjiang and the western region of Inner Mongolia. The interdecadal variation of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region and northwest arid region of China were characterized by the relatively cold phase during 1960 s-1980 s,and the relatively warm phase after 1990 s. In addition,mutation analysis indicated that the temperature of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region and northwest arid region of China began to growin the same time,but the temperature mutation time of northwest arid region of China was in 1993,and the temperature mutation time of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau region was in 1994.
引文
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Li J,Wang J X L,2003.A modified zonal index and its physical sense[J].Geophysical Research Letters,30(12):1632.DOI:10.1029/2003GL017441.
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Wang G,Bai W,Li N,et al,2011.Climate changes and its impact on tundra ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China[J].Climatic Change,106(3):463-482.
Yao T,Pu J,Lu A,et al,2007.Recent glacial retreat and its impact on hydrological processes on the Tibetan Plateau China and surrounding regions[J].Arctic,Antarctic,and Alpine Research,39(4):642-650.
Yao T,Thompson L,Yang W,et al,2012.Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings[J].Nature Climate Change,2(9):663-667.
You Q,Min J,Jiao Y,et al,2016.Observed trend of diurnal temperature range in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades[J].International Journal of Climatology,36(6):2633-2643.doi:10.1002/joc.4517.
You Q,Min J,Kang S,2016.Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades[J].International Journal of Climatology,36(6):2660-2670.
蔡英,李栋梁,汤懋苍,等,2003.青藏高原近50年来气温的年代际变化[J].高原气象,22(3):464-470.
陈少勇,郭江勇,郭忠祥,等,2009.中国西北干旱半干旱区年平均气温的时空变化规律分析[J].干旱区地理,32(3):364-372.
陈少勇,郭江勇,韩通,等,2009.中国西北干旱半干旱区近46a秋季气候变暖分析[J].中国沙漠,29(3):544-550.
德吉,姚檀栋,姚平,等,2013.冰芯和气象记录揭示的青藏高原百年来典型冷暖时段气候变化特征[J].冰川冻土,35(6):1382-1390.
丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等,2007.气候变化国家评估报告:中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,3:1-5.
丁一汇,张莉,2008.青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较[J].大气科学,32(4):794-805.
杜军,2001.西藏高原近40年的气温变化[J].地理学报,56(6):682-690.
冯松,汤懋苍,王冬梅,1998.青藏高原是我国气候变化启动区的新证据[J].科学通报,43(6):633-636.
符淙斌,王强,1998.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,16(4):488-498.
龚道溢,王绍武,1999.西伯利亚高压的长期变化及全球变暖可能影响的研究[J].地理学报,54(2):125-133.
龚道溢,王绍武,2002.冬季西风环流指数的变率及其与北半球温度变化的关系研究[J].热带气象学报,18(2):104-110.
郭志梅,缪启龙,李雄,等,2005.中国北方地区近50年来气温变化特征的研究[J].地理科学,25(4):448-454.
韩熠哲,马伟强,王炳赟,等,2017.青藏高原近30年降水变化特征分析[J].高原气象,36(6):1477-1486.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00125.
黄蕊,徐俊刚,刘俊民,2013.中国西北干旱区气温时空变化特征[J].生态学报,33(13):4978-4089.
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