西影井水位的相空间重构及其与地震活动关系
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摘要
地下水位的动态演变过程对地震活动性分析具有重要意义,西影井水位时间序列受多种因素影响,呈现出高度非线性非平稳的特征.根据混沌理论,采用相空间重构GP算法,分析了西影井水位日均值差分时间序列的混沌动力学特征,结果表明其最小嵌入维数为8,并在此基础上研究了西影井水位日均值差分时间序列饱和关联维的时间变化特征.结果表明,西影井水位日均值差分时间序列饱和关联维随时间的变化与西安及邻区地震活动和中强地震孕育过程密切相关,在1998年1月5日泾阳5. 2级地震前后,西影井水位日均值差分时间序列饱和关联维经历了明显的上升—下降—加速下降—回升的过程.这种分维变化特征可能与地震孕育过程有关,可能反映了地震孕育过程中区域应力场的变化,有助于捕捉未来该地区中强地震发生的前兆信息.
The dynamic evolution of groundwater level is of great significance for the analysis of seismicity. The time series of water level of Xiying well is affected by many factors and present a highly non-linear and non-stationary feature. In this paper,the chaos characteristic of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well is analyzed by using G-P algorithm,the results show that the minimum embedding dimension is 8. Based on the results,the temporal curve of the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well is determined. The results show that the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well is obviously related to the regional seismic activity. Before and after the Jingyang earthquake with ML= 5.2,the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well experienced a process of rise-fall-rapidly fall-recovery. The temporal variation of the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well may reflect the changes of the regional stress field during the seismogenic process. And the study of such temporal variation in the fractal dimension may help to capture the precursor information of moderate and strong earthquakes around the area in the future.
The dynamic evolution of groundwater level is of great significance for the analysis of seismicity. The time series of water level of Xiying well is affected by many factors and present a highly non-linear and non-stationary feature. In this paper,the chaos characteristic of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well is analyzed by using G-P algorithm,the results show that the minimum embedding dimension is 8. Based on the results,the temporal curve of the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well is determined. The results show that the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well is obviously related to the regional seismic activity. Before and after the Jingyang earthquake with ML= 5.2,the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well experienced a process of rise-fall-rapidly fall-recovery. The temporal variation of the saturated correlation dimension of the difference time series of water level of Xiying well may reflect the changes of the regional stress field during the seismogenic process. And the study of such temporal variation in the fractal dimension may help to capture the precursor information of moderate and strong earthquakes around the area in the future.
引文
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[3]黄发明,殷坤龙,何涛,等.库岸滑坡地下水位时间序列混沌特征识别与PSO-LSSVM模型预测[J].地质科技情报,2015,35(6):186-192.
[4]RAMANA D V,J P KUMAR,A CHELANI,et al.Complexity in hydroseismicity of the Koyna-Warna region,India[J].Natural Hazards,2015a,71(2):109-116.
[5]YAN R,WOITH H,WANG R J.Groundwater level changes induced by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in China mainland[J].Geophys J Int,2014,199,533-548.
[6]ZHANG Y,FU L Y,HUANG F Q,et al.Coseismic water-level changes in a well induced by teleseismic waves from three large earthquakes[J].Tectonophysics,2015,651-652,232-241.
[7]岳顺,翟长治,李小奇.基于GP算法奇异谱分析嵌入维数的确定及应用[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2015,13(5):98-101.
[8]周双,冯勇,吴文渊.太阳高纬和低纬活动现象的混沌与分形特征[J].物理学报,2015,64(24):249601.
[9]周长让,陈元芳,顾圣华,等.日径流序列混沌识别中合理长度的确定[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):55-59,101.
[10]刘快胜,米秋霞,张家明.西安地裂缝近期活动与热水井水位关系研究[J].华北地震科学,1996,14(2):67-73.
[11]吴富春,宋立胜,朱兴国,等.西安地区的地热水开采与诱发地震关系的研究[J].地震学报,2001,23(4):407-412.
[12]王卫东,林晨,张永志,等.区域地震活动与西安市地下热水活动相关性的研究[J].地震,2009,29(2):118-121.
[13]王卫东,张钰诚,张永志,等.西安地区地下热水活动与区域地震活动的R/S分析[J].内陆地震,2018,32(2):97-102.
[14]朱令人,王海涛,白超英,等.澜沧-耿马7.6级地震前中小地震活动信息嫡和分维的研究[J].内陆地震,1990,4(4):310-318.
[15]阎春恒,吴小平.云南西北部强震前地震活动空间关联维的降维过程[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,29(3):266-271.
[16]陈时军,杜历英,魏绪云.中国大陆地震活动时空分布多重分形特征[J].华北地震科学,2010,28(4):1-8.