中国碳排放交易市场的覆盖范围与行业选择——基于多目标优化的方法
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摘要
如何确定覆盖范围与行业选择是建设碳交易市场的关键问题,覆盖范围与行业选择同时影响交易市场的活跃性、减排成本及减排效果。在非参数的方向性距离函数方法测算出我国40个工业行业的二氧化碳减排成本基础上,通过多目标优化的方法仿真出我国碳交易市场的覆盖范围应占我国二氧化碳总排放量的45%～50%,即约50亿吨可达到市场活跃性、减排成本与减排效果三目标的最佳平衡点。主要的覆盖行业分别为电力、热力生产和供应业,石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学原料和化学制品制造业,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业,造纸和纸制品业,农副食品加工业以及食品制造业。该方法可为国家或地方政府优化碳交易市场纳入行业与企业提供方法学的参考。
How to determine the coverage and industry selection is a key issue in building a carbon trading market.The coverage and industry selection will affect the activity of the trading on the cost of emission reduction and the effect of emission reduction.In this paper,the non-parametric directional distance function is used to calculate the CO2 reduction cost of 40 industrial sectors in China.Then we used a multi-objective optimization method to estimate the coverage and sector selection of China's carbon market.When the coverage accounts for 45%～50%of China's total CO2 emissions,or about 5billion tons,the result is the best.The sectors selected include electricity,heat production and supply,oil processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,non-metallic mineral products,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,paper and paper products,agro-food processing and food manufacturing.At the same time,the method could be used as a reference for the national or local governments to optimize the carbon trading market.
How to determine the coverage and industry selection is a key issue in building a carbon trading market.The coverage and industry selection will affect the activity of the trading on the cost of emission reduction and the effect of emission reduction.In this paper,the non-parametric directional distance function is used to calculate the CO2 reduction cost of 40 industrial sectors in China.Then we used a multi-objective optimization method to estimate the coverage and sector selection of China's carbon market.When the coverage accounts for 45%～50%of China's total CO2 emissions,or about 5billion tons,the result is the best.The sectors selected include electricity,heat production and supply,oil processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,non-metallic mineral products,chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry,non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing,paper and paper products,agro-food processing and food manufacturing.At the same time,the method could be used as a reference for the national or local governments to optimize the carbon trading market.
引文
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[33]李锴,齐绍洲.贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放[J].经济研究,2011(11).
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[36]秦少俊,张文奎,尹海涛.上海市火电企业二氧化碳减排成本估算——基于产出距离函数方法[J].工程管理学报,2011(6).
(1)MRV是Monitoring(监测)、Reporting(报告)与Verification(核查)的缩写。可监测、可报告、可核查是国际社会对温室气体排放和减排监测的基本要求,也是碳交易市场建设的基础。
[2]Kallbekken,S.The cost of sectoral differentiation in the EU emissions trading scheme[J].Climate Policy,2005(1).
[3]Hood,C.Reviewing Existing and Proposed Emissions Trading Systems[Z].IEA Energy Papers,2010.
[4]Kerr,S.,C.Leining,J.Sefton,et al.Roadmap for implementing agreenhouse gas emissions trading system in Chile:Core design options and policy decision-making considerations[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013.
[5]Betz,R.,T.Sanderson,T.Ancev.In or out:Efficient inclusion of installations in an emissions trading scheme[J].Journal of Regulatory Economics,2010(2).
[6]Dijkstra,B.R.,E.Manderson,T.Y.Lee.Extending the sectoral coverage of an international emission trading scheme[J].Environmental&Resource Economics,2011(2).
[7]B9hringer,C.,K.E.Rosendahl.Strategic partitioning of emission allowances under the EU Emission Trading Scheme[J].Resource&Energy Economics,2009(3).
[8]B9hringer,C.,B.Dijkstra,K.E.Rosendahl.Sectoral and regional expansion of emissions trading[J].Resource&Energy Economics,2014,37.
[9]Hahn,R.W.Market power and transferable property rights[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1984(4).
[10]Helm,C.International emissions trading with endogenous allowance choices[J].Journal of Public Economics,2003(12).
[11]Kruger,J.Decentralization in the EU emissions trading scheme and lessons for global policy[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007(1).
[12]Viguier,L.,M.Vielle,A.Haurie,et al.A two-level computable equilibrium model to assess the strategic allocation of emission allowances within the European Union[J].Computers&Operations Research,2006(2).
[13]彭斯震,常影,张九天.中国碳市场发展若干重大问题的思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(9).
[14]范英,莫建雷.中国碳市场顶层设计重大问题及建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2015(4).
[15]谢晓闻,方意,李胜兰.中国碳市场一体化程度研究——基于中国试点省市样本数据的分析[J].财经研究,2017(2).
[16]邵鑫潇,张潇,蒋惠琴.中国碳排放交易体系行业覆盖范围研究[J].资源开发与市场,2017(10).
[17]曹静,周亚林.行业覆盖、市场规模与碳排放权交易市场总体设计[J].改革,2017(11).
[18]Fankhauser,S.,C.Hepburn.Designing carbon markets.Part I:Carbon markets in time[J].Energy Policy,2010(8).
[19]Fankhauser,S.,C.Hepburn.Designing carbon markets.Part II:Carbon markets in space[J].Energy Policy,2010(8).
[20]Alex,Y.L.Challenges to the development of carbon markets in China[J].Climate Policy,2016(1).
[21]崔连标,范英,朱磊,等.碳排放交易对实现我国“十二五”减排目标的成本节约效应研究[J].中国管理科学,2013(1).
[22]Fan,Y.Which sectors should be included in the ETS in the context of a unified carbon market in China?[J].Energy&Environment,2014(3).
[23]涂正革,谌仁俊.排污权交易机制在中国能否实现波特效应?[J].经济研究,2015(7).
[24]Fang,G.,L.Tian,M.Liu,et al.How to optimize the development of carbon trading in China—Enlightenment from evolution rules of the EU carbon price[J].Applied Energy,2018,211.
[25]Zhao,X.G.,G.W.Jiang,D.Nie,et al.How to improve the market efficiency of carbon trading:A perspective of China[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,59.
[26]陈诗一.工业二氧化碳的影子价格:参数化和非参数化方法[J].世界经济,2010(8).
[27]Fre,R.,S.Grosskopf,D.W.Noh,et al.Characteristics of a polluting technology:Theory and practice[J].Journal of Econometrics,2005(2).
[28]Lee,J.D.,J.B.Park,T.Y.Kim.Estimation of the shadow prices of pollutants with production/environment inefficiency taken into account:A nonparametric directional distance function approach[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2002(4).
[29]Khoshnevis,S.,T.Gross,C.Rotte,et al.Financial allocation strategy for the regional pollution abatement cost of reducing sulfur dioxide emissions in the thermal power sector in China[J].Energy Policy,2010(5).
[30]岳超,胡雪洋,贺灿飞,等.1995—2007年我国省区碳排放及碳强度的分析——碳排放与社会发展Ⅲ[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010(4).
[31]Marland,G.Global,Regional,and National Fossil fuel CO2Emissions[Z].Trends A Compendium of Data on Global Change,2000.
[32]Liu,Z.,D.Guan,W.Wei,et al.Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China[J].Nature,2015(7565).
[33]李锴,齐绍洲.贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放[J].经济研究,2011(11).
[34]Lanza,R.,T.Martinsen,A.K.W.Mohammad,et al.IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[M].Tokyo:Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2006.
[35]陈昌兵.可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算[J].经济研究,2014(12).
[36]秦少俊,张文奎,尹海涛.上海市火电企业二氧化碳减排成本估算——基于产出距离函数方法[J].工程管理学报,2011(6).
(1)MRV是Monitoring(监测)、Reporting(报告)与Verification(核查)的缩写。可监测、可报告、可核查是国际社会对温室气体排放和减排监测的基本要求,也是碳交易市场建设的基础。