基于云模型与协同决策的FMEA耦合评估方法
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摘要
针对产品失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)的风险评估过程中,专家给出的信息具有模糊性、随机性、不一致性等多重不确定性问题,同时考虑到失效模式之间的耦合传播效应,提出基于云模型、广义证据理论和解析结构模型相集成的FMEA风险评估新方法。首先,利用云模型对每个专家关于风险因子的不确定性评价信息建模,通过构建相关的云算子计算风险优先数;其次,引入广义证据理论融合所有专家的评价意见得到团队协同性风险评价数值;最后,通过解析结构模型分析失效模式间的关联耦合关系,并通过定义耦合传播指数对团队协同性决策结果进行修正,进而获得失效模式风险程度全面完善的排序。以大型数控机床为例,验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。
Aiming at problems that there were several types of uncertainty namely fuzziness,randomness,discrepancy in the course of product's Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA),and that there were coupling propagation relations between failure modes,a novel integrated FMEA method based on cloud model,generalized evidence theory and interpretive structure modeling was proposed.Cloud model was adopted to model experts' uncertain evaluation information on risk factors,and then relevant cloud operators were constructed to compute risk priority number.Generalized evidence theory was introduced to fuse all experts' evaluation opinions,so that the whole team comprised of experts could reach collaborative decision result of risk priority number.The correlative coupling relation between failure modes was analyzed through interpretive structure modeling,and coupling propagation index of failures modes which was built on the basis of correlative coupling relation was constructed.Coupling propagation index was utilized to amend collaborative decision result of risk priority number,so that perfect comprehensive risk level ordering of failures modes was resorted.A case study of large scale numerical control machine was offered to illustrate the practicability and validation of the proposed method.
Aiming at problems that there were several types of uncertainty namely fuzziness,randomness,discrepancy in the course of product's Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA),and that there were coupling propagation relations between failure modes,a novel integrated FMEA method based on cloud model,generalized evidence theory and interpretive structure modeling was proposed.Cloud model was adopted to model experts' uncertain evaluation information on risk factors,and then relevant cloud operators were constructed to compute risk priority number.Generalized evidence theory was introduced to fuse all experts' evaluation opinions,so that the whole team comprised of experts could reach collaborative decision result of risk priority number.The correlative coupling relation between failure modes was analyzed through interpretive structure modeling,and coupling propagation index of failures modes which was built on the basis of correlative coupling relation was constructed.Coupling propagation index was utilized to amend collaborative decision result of risk priority number,so that perfect comprehensive risk level ordering of failures modes was resorted.A case study of large scale numerical control machine was offered to illustrate the practicability and validation of the proposed method.
引文
[1]LIU Huchen,LIU Long,LIU Nan.Risk evaluation approaches in failure mode and effects analysis:a literature review[J].Expert Systems with Application,2013,40(2):828-838.
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[6]WANG Haolun,XU Xiangbin,GAN Weihua.Using triangular fuzzy soft sets risk evaluation method in FMEA[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2015,21(11):3054-3062(in Chinese).[王浩伦,徐翔斌,甘卫华.基于三角模糊软集的FMEA风险评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(11):3054-3062.]
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[16]WANG Hongli,FENG Yuqiang.On multiple attribute group decision making with linguistic assessment information based on cloud model[J].Control and Decision,2005,20(6):679-685(in Chinese).[王洪利,冯玉强.基于云模型具有语言评价信息的多属性群决策研究[J].控制与决策,2005,20(6):679-685.]
[17]QIU Dishan,HE Chuan,ZHU Xiaomin.Ranking method research of interval numbers based on probability reliability distribution[J].Control and Decision,2012,27(12):1894-1898(in Chinese).[邱涤珊,贺川,朱晓敏.基于概率可信度的区间数排序方法[J].控制与决策,2012,27(12):1894-1898.]
[18]PALASH D.Uncertainty modeling in risk assessment based on Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence with generalized fuzzy focal elements[J].Fuzzy Information and Engineering,2015,7(1):15-30.
[19]WANG Ruihong.Multi-mode intelligent reasoning and fusion based on generalized evidence theory[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2015(in Chinese).[王睿虹.基于广义证据理论的多模式智能推理与融合研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2015.]
[20]DING Liping,TAN Jianrong,FENG Yixiong,et al.Construction of product module based on interpretive structure modeling and its optimization[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2008,14(6):1070-1077(in Chinese).[丁力平,谭建荣,冯毅雄,等.基于解析结构模型的产品模块构建及其优化[J].计算机集成制造系统,2008,14(6):1070-1077.]
[21]AN Xianghua,FENG Yixiong,TAN Jianrong,et al.Granularity decision method of product based on intelligent clustering algorithm[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2010,16(4):689-745(in Chinese).[安相华,冯毅雄,谭建荣,等.基于智能聚类算法的产品粒度确定方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2010,16(4):689-745.]
[2]KOK C C,CHIAN H J,KAI M T,et al.A perceptual computing-based method to prioritize failure modes in faiture mode and effect analysis and its application to edible bird nest farming[J].Applied soft computing,2016,49(C):4000-4015.
[3]NIE Wenbin,LIU Weidong,HU Kun,et al.Process failure risk assessment based on group decision-making and the generalized hausdorff distance[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2015,21(9):2484-2493(in Chinese).[聂文滨,刘卫东,胡坤,等.基于群决策和广义豪斯多夫距离的工艺失效风险评估[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(9):2484-2493.]
[4]AHMET C K,MEHMET E L.Fuzzy failure modes and effects analysis by using fuzzy TOPSIS-based fuzzy AHP[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2012,39(1):61-67.
[5]WANG Lien,LIU Huchen,QUAN Meiyun.Evaluating the risk of failure modes with a hybrid MCDM model under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2016,102(11):175-185.
[6]WANG Haolun,XU Xiangbin,GAN Weihua.Using triangular fuzzy soft sets risk evaluation method in FMEA[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2015,21(11):3054-3062(in Chinese).[王浩伦,徐翔斌,甘卫华.基于三角模糊软集的FMEA风险评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(11):3054-3062.]
[7]LIU Huchen,LIU Long,BIAN Qihao,et al.Failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy evidential reasoning approach and grey theory[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2011,38(4):4403-4415.
[8]AN Xianghua,YU Jingbo,CAI Weiguo.Fuzzy rough FMEA evaluation method based on hybrid multi-attribute decision and correlative analysis[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2016,22(11):2613-2621(in Chinese).[安相华,于靖博,蔡卫国.基于混合多属性决策和关联分析的模糊粗糙FMEA评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(11):2613-2621.]
[9]CHANG K H,CHANG Y C,TSAI I T.Enhancing FMEA assessment by integrating grey relational analysis and the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory approach[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2015,31(6):211-224.
[10]WU Xiaorong,QIU Lemiao,ZHANG Shuyou,et al.Correlated FMEA method of complex system with linguistic vagueness[J].Journal of Zhejiang University:Engineering Science,2013,47(5):782-789(in Chinese).[伍晓榕,裘乐淼,张树有,等.模糊语境下的复杂系统关联FEMA方法[J].浙江大学学报:工学版,2013,47(5):782-789.]
[11]GENG Xiuli,ZHANG Yongzheng.Improved FMEA approach for risk evaluation based on hesitant fuzzy set[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2017,23(2):340-348(in Chinese).[耿秀丽,张永政.基于犹豫模糊集的改进FMEA风险评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017,23(2):340-348.]
[12]LI Deyi,DU Yi.Artificial intelligence with uncertainty[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2005(in Chinese).[李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.]
[13]ZHANG Longchang,YANG Yanhong,ZHAO Xuhui.SaaS decision-making method based on cloud model[J].Acta Electronica Sinica,2015,43(5):987-992(in Chinese).[张龙昌,杨艳红,赵绪辉.基于云模型的SaaS决策方法[J].电子学报,2015,43(5):987-992.]
[14]ZHAO Kun,GAO Jianwei,QI Zhiqiang,et al.Multi-criteria risky-decision-making approach based on prospect theory and cloud model[J].Control and Decision,2015,30(3):17-23(in Chinese).[赵坤,高建伟,祁之强,等.基于前景理论及云模型多准则决策方法[J].控制与决策,2015,30(3):17-23.]
[15]REN Jian.Linguistic-stochastic multi-criterion decision-making method based on cloud model[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2012,18(12):2792-2797(in Chinese).[任剑.基于云模型的语言随机多准则决策方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2012,18(12):2792-2797.]
[16]WANG Hongli,FENG Yuqiang.On multiple attribute group decision making with linguistic assessment information based on cloud model[J].Control and Decision,2005,20(6):679-685(in Chinese).[王洪利,冯玉强.基于云模型具有语言评价信息的多属性群决策研究[J].控制与决策,2005,20(6):679-685.]
[17]QIU Dishan,HE Chuan,ZHU Xiaomin.Ranking method research of interval numbers based on probability reliability distribution[J].Control and Decision,2012,27(12):1894-1898(in Chinese).[邱涤珊,贺川,朱晓敏.基于概率可信度的区间数排序方法[J].控制与决策,2012,27(12):1894-1898.]
[18]PALASH D.Uncertainty modeling in risk assessment based on Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence with generalized fuzzy focal elements[J].Fuzzy Information and Engineering,2015,7(1):15-30.
[19]WANG Ruihong.Multi-mode intelligent reasoning and fusion based on generalized evidence theory[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2015(in Chinese).[王睿虹.基于广义证据理论的多模式智能推理与融合研究[D].上海:上海交通大学,2015.]
[20]DING Liping,TAN Jianrong,FENG Yixiong,et al.Construction of product module based on interpretive structure modeling and its optimization[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2008,14(6):1070-1077(in Chinese).[丁力平,谭建荣,冯毅雄,等.基于解析结构模型的产品模块构建及其优化[J].计算机集成制造系统,2008,14(6):1070-1077.]
[21]AN Xianghua,FENG Yixiong,TAN Jianrong,et al.Granularity decision method of product based on intelligent clustering algorithm[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2010,16(4):689-745(in Chinese).[安相华,冯毅雄,谭建荣,等.基于智能聚类算法的产品粒度确定方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2010,16(4):689-745.]