中国经济新常态下的经济周期更迭与驱动因素转换研究——兼论新周期的形成与识别
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摘要
本文从经济周期驱动因素转换的视角出发,综合分析本轮经济周期拖平尾部平面的形成机理,并对未来新经济周期的类型进行初步地识别和判断。研究结果显示:首先,投资周期由繁荣转向衰退是现阶段经济收缩的主导诱因,表明朱格拉周期依旧是本次经济周期转换的主导因素;其次,技术长周期的顺利转换将为长期经济增长提供重要推力,但受制于技术更迭时间较长,未来增长动能的释放仍需必要时间;最后,得益于"三去一降一补"战略的有序实施,现阶段产能过剩问题已基本得到化解,短期库存因素对经济的影响已极为有限。总体而言,现阶段经济周期的转换在很大程度上取决于中长期要素的作用强度,因此,经济增长将有很大概率在中高速阶段形成局部稳态。
From the perspective of the transition of economic cycle drivers, this paper comprehensively analyzes the formation mechanism of the current economic cycle to smooth the tail plane, and makes a preliminary identification and judgment of the types of future new economic cycles. The results show that: First, the transition from prosperity to recession is the leading cause of economic contraction at this stage, indicating that the Jugla cycle is still the dominant factor in the economic cycle transition. Second, the smooth transition of the technology long cycle will provide important thrust for long-term economic growth,but subject to the long period of technological change, the release of future growth kinetic energy will still take time; Finally,thanks to the orderly implementation of the "cutting overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing corporate costs and shoring up weak spots" strategy, the overcapacity problem has been basically resolved at this stage. The impact of short-term inventory factors on the economy has been extremely limited. In general, the current economic cycle conversion depends to a large extent on the intensity of the medium to long-term factors. Therefore, economic growth will have a high probability of forming a local steady state in the medium and high-speed phase.
From the perspective of the transition of economic cycle drivers, this paper comprehensively analyzes the formation mechanism of the current economic cycle to smooth the tail plane, and makes a preliminary identification and judgment of the types of future new economic cycles. The results show that: First, the transition from prosperity to recession is the leading cause of economic contraction at this stage, indicating that the Jugla cycle is still the dominant factor in the economic cycle transition. Second, the smooth transition of the technology long cycle will provide important thrust for long-term economic growth,but subject to the long period of technological change, the release of future growth kinetic energy will still take time; Finally,thanks to the orderly implementation of the "cutting overcapacity, destocking, deleveraging, reducing corporate costs and shoring up weak spots" strategy, the overcapacity problem has been basically resolved at this stage. The impact of short-term inventory factors on the economy has been extremely limited. In general, the current economic cycle conversion depends to a large extent on the intensity of the medium to long-term factors. Therefore, economic growth will have a high probability of forming a local steady state in the medium and high-speed phase.
引文
[1]SCHUMPETER,J.A.Business Cycles:A Theoretical,Historical,and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process[M].New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company,1939.
[2]刘树成.论中国经济增长与波动的新态势[J].中国社会科学,2000,(1):114-122+207.
[3]刘树成.论又好又快发展[J].经济研究,2007,(6):4-13.
[4]KEYNES,J.M.The General Theory of Money,Interest and Employment[M].New York:Harcourt,1936.
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[6]FRIEDMAN,M.and SCHWARTZ,A.J.A Monetary History of The United States,1867-1960[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2008.
[7]COLE,H.L.and OHANIAN,L.Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review[J].American Economic Review Papers&Proceedings,1999,23(1):2.
[8]JORGENSON,D.W.Information Technology and The US Economy[J].American Economic Review,2001,91(1),1-32.
[9]JUSTINIANO,A.PRIMICERI,G.E.and TAMBALOTTI,A.Investment Shocks and Business Cycles[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2010,57(2):132-145.
[10]MCCONNELL,M.M.and PEREZ-QUIROS,G.Output Fluctuations in the United States:What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(5),1464-1476.
[11]SUMMERS L H.US Economic Prospects:Secular Stagnation,Hysteresis,and the Zero Lower Bound[J].Business Economics,2014,49(2):65-73.
[12]刘达禹,刘金全,赵婷婷.中国经济“新常态”下的宏观调控--基于世界经济景气变动的经验分析[J].经济学家,2016,(10):13-21.
[13]王婧.供给侧结构性改革助推产业结构转型升级--基于政府投资引导民间投资的实证分析[J].经济学家,2017,(6):42-49.
[14]CALVO,G.A.Staggered Prices in A Utility-Maximizing Framework[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,(3),383-398.
[15]郑挺国,刘金全.区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策中的应用[J].经济研究,2010,(3):40-52.
[16]仝冰.混频数据、投资冲击与中国宏观经济波动[J].经济研究,2017,(6):60-76.
[17]SCHUMPETER,J.A.The Theory of Economic Development:An Inquiry into Profits,Capital,Credit,Interest,and the Business Cycle[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1961.
[18]GORE,C.The Global Recession of 2009 in A Long-Term Development Perspective[J].Journal of International Development,2010,22(6),714-738.
(1)峰位指经济增速的局部最大值,谷位指经济增速的局部最小值。
(1)计算季度数据方法为:iQt=∑s=13(f)siMs∑s=13fs,其中iQt为季度同业拆借利率,iMt为月度利率,ft为交易量。
(1)三种周期未必始于1996年,但是由于可得性与可靠性问题,本文数据始于1996年,因此将1996年定为起点,划分方法依旧是“谷-谷”分割。
[2]刘树成.论中国经济增长与波动的新态势[J].中国社会科学,2000,(1):114-122+207.
[3]刘树成.论又好又快发展[J].经济研究,2007,(6):4-13.
[4]KEYNES,J.M.The General Theory of Money,Interest and Employment[M].New York:Harcourt,1936.
[5]HANSEN,A.H.Fiscal Policy&Business Cycles[M].London:Routledge,1941.
[6]FRIEDMAN,M.and SCHWARTZ,A.J.A Monetary History of The United States,1867-1960[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2008.
[7]COLE,H.L.and OHANIAN,L.Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review[J].American Economic Review Papers&Proceedings,1999,23(1):2.
[8]JORGENSON,D.W.Information Technology and The US Economy[J].American Economic Review,2001,91(1),1-32.
[9]JUSTINIANO,A.PRIMICERI,G.E.and TAMBALOTTI,A.Investment Shocks and Business Cycles[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2010,57(2):132-145.
[10]MCCONNELL,M.M.and PEREZ-QUIROS,G.Output Fluctuations in the United States:What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?[J].American Economic Review,2000,90(5),1464-1476.
[11]SUMMERS L H.US Economic Prospects:Secular Stagnation,Hysteresis,and the Zero Lower Bound[J].Business Economics,2014,49(2):65-73.
[12]刘达禹,刘金全,赵婷婷.中国经济“新常态”下的宏观调控--基于世界经济景气变动的经验分析[J].经济学家,2016,(10):13-21.
[13]王婧.供给侧结构性改革助推产业结构转型升级--基于政府投资引导民间投资的实证分析[J].经济学家,2017,(6):42-49.
[14]CALVO,G.A.Staggered Prices in A Utility-Maximizing Framework[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,(3),383-398.
[15]郑挺国,刘金全.区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策中的应用[J].经济研究,2010,(3):40-52.
[16]仝冰.混频数据、投资冲击与中国宏观经济波动[J].经济研究,2017,(6):60-76.
[17]SCHUMPETER,J.A.The Theory of Economic Development:An Inquiry into Profits,Capital,Credit,Interest,and the Business Cycle[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1961.
[18]GORE,C.The Global Recession of 2009 in A Long-Term Development Perspective[J].Journal of International Development,2010,22(6),714-738.
(1)峰位指经济增速的局部最大值,谷位指经济增速的局部最小值。
(1)计算季度数据方法为:iQt=∑s=13(f)siMs∑s=13fs,其中iQt为季度同业拆借利率,iMt为月度利率,ft为交易量。
(1)三种周期未必始于1996年,但是由于可得性与可靠性问题,本文数据始于1996年,因此将1996年定为起点,划分方法依旧是“谷-谷”分割。