城市火灾风险认知述评及其逻辑局限和对策
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摘要
城市火灾风险认知旨在理解城市火灾风险的本质,是城市火灾研究的一项重要内容,是城市火灾风险分析和评估的基础.本文对国内外学术论文和消防标准中有关城市火灾风险的各种概念构建或思想学说进行了整理,归纳出还原论、整体论和复杂论等三个不同阶段的若干视角及其主要观点,展现了其系统化、多维化演进态势和中国学者的一系列突出贡献;发现了其三个方面的逻辑性认知局限问题:科学逻辑缺乏明确性、数学逻辑缺乏普适性、理论逻辑和实践逻辑之间具有冲突性;最后,以引入哲理科学、哲理数学及和谐管理理论等原创性理论为契机和前提,提出了解决上述逻辑问题的研究对策暨未来研究的初步规划.
Urban fire risk cognition aims to understand the nature of the urban fire risk. It is not only one of the important contents of urban fire research, but also the base of urban fire risk analysis and assessment.In this paper, various concepts or theories about urban fire risk in academic papers and fire safety standards at home and abroad are summarized and classified. Not only the several perspectives of the three different stages including reductionism and holism and syncretism, but also their main ideas of the three ones, are induced. The trend of systematic multi-dimensional evolution and a series of outstanding contributions by Chinese scholars are unfolded. The three logical cognitive limitations are discovered, such as: the scientific logic lacks clarity, the mathematical logic lacks universality, and there is a conflict between the theoretical logic and the practical logic. In the end, it takes the opportunities of introducing the original theories on philosophical mathematics and philosophical science and HeXie management theory to point out the three research solutions to these logical problems and the orientations and focal points for the future works of this research.
Urban fire risk cognition aims to understand the nature of the urban fire risk. It is not only one of the important contents of urban fire research, but also the base of urban fire risk analysis and assessment.In this paper, various concepts or theories about urban fire risk in academic papers and fire safety standards at home and abroad are summarized and classified. Not only the several perspectives of the three different stages including reductionism and holism and syncretism, but also their main ideas of the three ones, are induced. The trend of systematic multi-dimensional evolution and a series of outstanding contributions by Chinese scholars are unfolded. The three logical cognitive limitations are discovered, such as: the scientific logic lacks clarity, the mathematical logic lacks universality, and there is a conflict between the theoretical logic and the practical logic. In the end, it takes the opportunities of introducing the original theories on philosophical mathematics and philosophical science and HeXie management theory to point out the three research solutions to these logical problems and the orientations and focal points for the future works of this research.
引文
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[26] Moreno M V, Malamud B D, Chuvieco E. Wildfire frequency-area statistics in Spain[J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2011, 7(12):182-187.
[27] Fletcher I N, Aragao LEO, Lima A, et al. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modeling pan-tropical burnt area[J]. Biogeosciences, 2014, 11(3):1449-1459.
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[38]谷新波,司瑶冰,刘秀荣.基于灰色关联分析法的城市火灾与气象条件关系分析[J].内蒙古气象,2012, 19(2):38-40.Gu X B, Si Y B, Liu X R. Analysis on relationship of city fire and meteorological conditions by the gray relevance analysis method[J]. Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia, 2012, 19(2):38 40.
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[41]闫金花.模糊系统分析在山地城市商业建筑火灾中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013, 9(3):74-79.Yan J H. Application of fuzzy system analysis for business buildings fire in mountain cities[J], Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2013, 9(3):74-79.
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[47] Mei P, Li G H, Lu S. Influence of government on the power-law distribution of city fires in Jiangxi, China[J].Procedia Engineering, 2013, 62:1057-1062.
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[49]王健,赵亚云,李双革.兰州市火灾系统的时间分形特征研究[J].消防科学与技术,2015, 34(2):256-259.Wang J, Zhao Y Y, Li S G. Research of temporal fractal characteristics of fire system in Lanzhou[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2015, 34(2):256-259.
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[2]公安部消防局.中国消防年鉴[M].昆明:云南人事出版社,2015.
[3]杜兰萍.火灾风险评估方法与应用案例[M].北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2012.
[4]张文辉.转型期城市区域重大火灾风险认知、评估和防范[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2009.Zhang W H. Risk cognition, assessment and prevention countermeasures for urban major fire during the socioecoinomic transition period in China[M]. Beijing:China Building Industry Press, 2009.
[5] Webb F H. Rules and regulations for the prevention of fire risks arising from electric lighting[J]. Journal of the Society of Telegraph-Engineers and Electricians, 1883, 12(48):267-270.
[6] Preece W H. Fire risks and fire office rules[J]. Journal of the Society of Telegraph-Engineers ancd Electricians,1888, 17(3):478-496.
[7] Kolmogorov A N. Grundbegriffe der wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung[M]. Berlin, Germany:Springer, 1933.
[8] Deeming,Lancaster J, Forsberg M, et al. National fire-danger rating system[R]. Research Paper RM-84, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO, 1972.
[9] IS08421-1:1987, Fire protection-vocabulary-parti:General terms and phenomena of fire[S]. Englewood:Information Handling Services, Inc., 1987.
[10] Jones D A. Nomenclature of hazard and risk assessment in the process industries[M]. Rugby, Warwickshire, UK:Institution of Chemical Engineers, 1985.
[11] Kumamoto H, Henley E J. Probabilistic risk assessment and management for engineers and scientists[M]. Piscataway, NewYork:IEEE Press, 1996.
[12] Merz H A, Schneider T, Bohnenblust H. Bewertung von technischen risiken[M]. VDF Hochsehulverlag, ETH Zurich, 1995.
[13] ISO/TR 13387-1:1999, Fire safety engineering-part1:Application of fire performance concepts to design objectives[S]. Englewood:Information Handling Services, Inc., 1999.
[14] United States Fire Administration. U.S fire administration offers new risk, hazard and value evaluation program for local officials[EB/OL].[2001-11-19] http://www.usfa.fema.gov.
[15] Simard A J. Fire severity, changing scales, and how things hang together[J]. International Journal Wildland Fire,1991, 1(1):23-34.
[16] Bachmann A, Allgower B. A consistent wildland fire risk terminology is needed[J]. Fire Management Today,2001:61(4):28-33.
[17] Emilio C, Jurdao S. Integrating geospatial information into fire risk assessment[J]. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 2014, 23(5):606-619.
[18] Cumhur G. Determination of forest fire risk with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and its mapping with the application of GIS:The case of Turkey/Qakirlar[J]. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2017, 23(2):388-406.
[19] Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K. Self-organized criticality:An explanation of 1//noise[J], Physical Review Letters,1987, 59(4):381-384.
[20] Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K. Self-organized criticality[J]. Physical Review A, 1988, 38(1):364-374.
[21] Bak P, Chen K, Tang C. A forest-fire model and some thoughts on turbulence[J]. Physics Letters A, 1990,147(5-6):297-300.
[22] Drossel B, Schwabl F. Self-organized criticality forest-fire model[J]. Physical Review Letters, 1992, 69(11):1629-1632.
[23] Drossel B, Schwabl F. Self-organized criticality in a forest-fire model[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 1992, 191(1-4):47-50.
[24] Malamud B D, Morein G, Turcotte D L. Forest fires:An example of self-organized critical behavior[J]. Science,1998, 281(5384):1840-1842.
[25] Pueyo S. Self-organized criticality and the response of wildland fires to climate change[J]. Climatic Change, 2007,82(1):131-161.
[26] Moreno M V, Malamud B D, Chuvieco E. Wildfire frequency-area statistics in Spain[J]. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2011, 7(12):182-187.
[27] Fletcher I N, Aragao LEO, Lima A, et al. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modeling pan-tropical burnt area[J]. Biogeosciences, 2014, 11(3):1449-1459.
[28] Ghermandi L, Lasaponara R, Telesca L. Intrarannual time dynamical patterns of fire sequences observed in Patagonia(Argentina)[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2010, 221(1):94-97.
[29] Telesca L, Song W G. Tirme-scaling properties of city fires[J]. Chaos Solitions&Fractals, 2011, 44(7):558-568.
[30]GB5907-1986.消防基本术语第一部分[S].北京:中国标准出版社,1986.
[31]范维澄,孙金华,陆守香,等.火灾风险评估方法学[M]·北京:科学出版社,2004.
[32]霍然,程晓舫,解焕民.火灾危险评估模型的基本结构[J].消防技术与产品信息,1994, 7(6):28-32.Huo R, Cheng X F, Xie H M. The basic structure of the fire risk assessment model[J]. Fire Technique and Products Information, 1994, 7(6):28-32.
[33]易立新.城市火灾风险评价的指标体系设计[J].灾害学,2000, 15(4):90-94.Yi L X. Index system design for urban fire risk assessment[J]. Catastrophology, 2000, 15(4):90-94.
[34]郑双忠,苏卫东,张素梅.城市火灾预测分析的灰色系统方法[J].工业安全与环保,2003, 29(1):33-35.Zheng S Z, Su W D, Zhang S M. Prediction of city fire with gray system method[J]. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2003, 29(1):33-35.
[35]刘艳军.基于GM模型的城市火灾危险性分析[J]·中国安全生产科学技术,2006, 2(6):31-34.Liu Y J. Analysis of urban fire hazard based on GM model[J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2006,2(6):31-34.
[36]贾水库,温晓虎,蒋仲安,等.灰色系统理论在城市火灾事故预测中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008, 4(6):106-109.Jia S K, Wen X H, Jiang Z A, et al. Application of gray system theory in the prediction of the city fire accident[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2008, 4(6):106-109.
[37]邰锋.城市火灾危险性的灰色评估[J].消防科学与技术,2009, 28(4):220-225.Tai F. Grey evaluation of city fire ris'k[J]. Fire Science and Technology, 2009, 28(4):220-225.
[38]谷新波,司瑶冰,刘秀荣.基于灰色关联分析法的城市火灾与气象条件关系分析[J].内蒙古气象,2012, 19(2):38-40.Gu X B, Si Y B, Liu X R. Analysis on relationship of city fire and meteorological conditions by the gray relevance analysis method[J]. Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia, 2012, 19(2):38 40.
[39]李华军,梅宁,程晓舫.城市火灾危险性模糊综合评价[J].火灾科学,1995, 4(1):44-50.Li H J, Mei N, Cheng X F. Fuzzy assessment method for urban fire risks in cities[J]. Fire Safety Science, 1995,4(1):44-50.
[40]陈贞玉.模糊综合评价法在城市火灾风险评估中的应用[J]·中国科技信息,2010, 22(21):306-308.Chen Z Y. The application of comprehensive fuzzy evaluation in the urban fire risk assessment[J]. China Science and Technology Information, 2010, 22(21):306-308.
[41]闫金花.模糊系统分析在山地城市商业建筑火灾中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013, 9(3):74-79.Yan J H. Application of fuzzy system analysis for business buildings fire in mountain cities[J], Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2013, 9(3):74-79.
[42] Tang C, Bak P. Critical exponents and scaling relations for self-organized critical phenomena[J]. Physical Review Letters, 1988, 60(23):2347-2350.
[43] Tang C, Bak P. Mean field theory of self-organized critical phenomena[J]. Journal of Statistical Physics, 1988,51(5-6):797-802.
[44] Song W G, Fan W C, Wang B H, et al. Self-organized criticality of forest fire in China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2001, 46(13):1134-1137.
[45] Song W G, Zhang H P, Chen T, et al. Power-law distribution of city fires[J]. Fire Safety Journal, 2003, 38(5):453-465.
[46] Wang JH, Xie S, Sun J H. Self-organized criticality judgment and extreme statistics analysis of major urban fires[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2011, 56(6):567-572.
[47] Mei P, Li G H, Lu S. Influence of government on the power-law distribution of city fires in Jiangxi, China[J].Procedia Engineering, 2013, 62:1057-1062.
[48] Wang J, Li S G. Time-clustering behaviors of urban fires[J]. Procedia Engineering, 2014, 71:214-219.
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