基于改进云模型的化学驱油田开发项目综合评价
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摘要
与常规油田开发方案的制定不同,油田化学驱开发的开发方案是分项目进行论证的,油田公司需要分年度从中选出综合评价最好的板块来进行投资。针对化学驱项目方案论证时存在的主观和客观多方面不确定性,本文基于灰色聚类方法对云模型方法进行了改进,实现了化学驱油田开发项目的综合评价。新方法将各开发项目的论证结果转化为相应的云,再以此为基础结合改进的灰类白化函数计算相应的灰色隶属度函数。为了削弱模糊性和随机性的影响,该方法综合了灰色熵权法、层次分析法和专家打分法来确定各级指标权重。最后,通过实例验证了模型的有效性和可行性,发现利用该方法进行的综合评价结果具有更好的分类比较能力。
Different from the formulation of general oilfield development plans, the oilfield chemical flooding development is evaluated project by project with different indexes. Oilfield companies need to select the best one to invest by comprehensive evaluation. For the demonstration of chemical flooding oilfield development projects, there is subjective and objective multifaceted uncertainty. In this paper the cloud model based on the grey clustering method is improved, and the comprehensive evaluation of chemical flooding oilfield development plans is implemented based on this improved model. The new method transforms the argumentation results of the development projects into the corresponding clouds, and then calculates the corresponding grey membership degree based on the improved grey whitening functions. In order to weaken the influence of fuzziness and randomness, this method combines the grey entropy weight method, the analytic hierarchy process and the expert assessment method to determine the index weights at all levels. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the model are verified by a practical example, and it is found that the comprehensive evaluation results using this method have better classification and comparison ability.
Different from the formulation of general oilfield development plans, the oilfield chemical flooding development is evaluated project by project with different indexes. Oilfield companies need to select the best one to invest by comprehensive evaluation. For the demonstration of chemical flooding oilfield development projects, there is subjective and objective multifaceted uncertainty. In this paper the cloud model based on the grey clustering method is improved, and the comprehensive evaluation of chemical flooding oilfield development plans is implemented based on this improved model. The new method transforms the argumentation results of the development projects into the corresponding clouds, and then calculates the corresponding grey membership degree based on the improved grey whitening functions. In order to weaken the influence of fuzziness and randomness, this method combines the grey entropy weight method, the analytic hierarchy process and the expert assessment method to determine the index weights at all levels. Finally, the validity and feasibility of the model are verified by a practical example, and it is found that the comprehensive evaluation results using this method have better classification and comparison ability.
引文
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[17] 肖新平.灰色聚类分析法的改进及其应用[J].系统工程,1996,(2):71～74.
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[2] 赵明宸,陈月明,袁士宝.应用理想解排序法优选油田开发方案[J].新疆石油地质,2006,(4):484～486.
[3] 林巍,施郁文,张先龙.灰色关联分析法在优选油田开发方案中的应用[J].石油天然气学报(江汉石油学院学报),2006,(3):419～421.
[4] 李顺,王红旗,陈家军.环境影响二级模糊综合评价法的研究——以宋芳屯油田为例[J].水文地质工程地质,2002,(2):38～41.
[5] 陈志刚,郎兆新.模糊综合评判法在油气田开发方案评价及优选中的应用[J].华东石油学院学报(自然科学版),1988,(1):59～64.
[6] 孙福街,程林松,李秀生.层次分析法在油田开发综合评价与方案优选中的应用探讨[J].中国海上油气·地质,2002,(5):35～39.
[7] 李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].国防工业出版社,2005.
[8] 吕辉军等.逆向云在定性评价中的应用[J].计算机学报,2003,(8):1009～1014.
[9] 王健等.一种改进的基于云模型的效能评估方法[J].火力与指挥控制,2010,(5):97～99.
[10] 樊敏等.基于云模型的土地整理生态影响评价研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2008,(9):986～989.
[11] 陈德岭,徐凤银,朱兴珊,颜其彬.储层定量评价中指标权重的计算途径[J].石油学报,1996,(2):30～35.
[12] 胡石元等.基于云模型和关联度分析法的土地评价因素权重挖掘[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2006,(5):423～427.
[13] 王坚强,刘淘.基于综合云的不确定语言多准则群决策方法[J].控制与决策,2012,(8):1185～1190.
[14] Lv P,Yuan L,Zhang J.Cloud theory-based simulated annealing algorithm and application[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2009,22(4):742～749.
[15] 沈进昌等.基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法及应用[J].模糊系统与数学,2012,26(6):115～123.
[16] Liu Z B,et al.Synthetic evaluation of oilfield development plans based on a cloud model[J].Energy Technology & Policy,2014:1～6.
[17] 肖新平.灰色聚类分析法的改进及其应用[J].系统工程,1996,(2):71～74.
[18] 罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77～81.