西洋参市场风险空间联动与溢出效应
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摘要
西洋参在我国药用植物对外贸易中扮演着重要角色,是我国传统进口大宗药材。从地理空间联动的视角出发,基于2013年4月15日至2018年2月5日进口统规格西洋参价格指数和国产统规格西洋参价格指数数据,建立VAR-BEKK-GARCH模型对进口西洋参价格与国产西洋参价格的均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应进行了分析。进口西洋参价格与国产西洋参价格之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;进口西洋参价格与国产西洋参价格之间具有双向的均值溢出效应;进口西洋参价格与国产西洋参价格之间具有双向波动溢出效应。为促进中国西洋参产业的良性发展,保持西洋参市场的平稳运行,需要合理构建西洋参市场价格监测、预测、预警与调控机制,进一步完善信息披露制度,从资金、技术、政策等多方面改善我国西洋参产业的发展环境。
American ginseng plays an important role in China's foreign trade of medicinal plants,a large traditional imported medicinal material.From the perspective of geographic spatial linkage,VAR-BEKK-GARCH model was established to analyze the mean and volatility spillover effect of imported and domestic American ginseng price based on the data of their price index from April 15,2013 to February 5,2018.There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the two,as well as a bidirectional mean spillover effect.In order to promote the sound development of American ginseng industry in China and maintain the smooth operation of American ginseng market,it is necessary to reasonably construct the price monitoring,prediction,early warning and control mechanism of American ginseng market,further improve the information disclosure system,and improve the development environment of American ginseng industry in China from the aspects of capital,technology,policy and some other aspects.
American ginseng plays an important role in China's foreign trade of medicinal plants,a large traditional imported medicinal material.From the perspective of geographic spatial linkage,VAR-BEKK-GARCH model was established to analyze the mean and volatility spillover effect of imported and domestic American ginseng price based on the data of their price index from April 15,2013 to February 5,2018.There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the two,as well as a bidirectional mean spillover effect.In order to promote the sound development of American ginseng industry in China and maintain the smooth operation of American ginseng market,it is necessary to reasonably construct the price monitoring,prediction,early warning and control mechanism of American ginseng market,further improve the information disclosure system,and improve the development environment of American ginseng industry in China from the aspects of capital,technology,policy and some other aspects.
引文
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[2]易莉莉.加拿大西洋参在中国市场的竞争战略[D].广州:暨南大学,2007.
[3]孙景超.西洋参在中国的传播与影响[J].寻根,2017(3):24-27.
[4]郭生祯,马延康.国产西洋参[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社,2014.
[5]肖小勇,李崇光,李剑.国际粮食价格对中国粮食价格的溢出效应分析[J].中国农村经济,2014(2):42-55.
[6]高群,宋长鸣.国内畜禽价格溢出效应的对比分析——全产业链视角[J].中国农村经济,2016(4):31-43.
[7]易丹辉.数据分析与EViews应用.[M].2版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2014.
[8]李光泗,曹宝明,马学琳.中国粮食市场开放与国际粮食价格波动——基于粮食价格波动溢出效应的分析[J].中国农村经济,2015(8):44-52.
[9]李秋萍,李长健,肖小勇.产业链视角下农产品价格溢出效应研究——基于三元VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型[J].财贸经济,2014,35(10):125-136.
[10]康美·中国中药材价格总指数网站.[2018-10-12].http://cnkmprice.kmzyw.com.cn/.
[11]胡丽,张文生.美国威斯康星州西洋参产业状况分析[J].中国中药杂志,2008,33(14):1649-1653.