平原河网地区人类活动对降雨-水位关系的影响——以太湖流域杭嘉湖地区为例
|
摘要
太湖流域快速城镇化、水利工程等一系列人类活动对流域水文过程产生了深刻影响.本文以快速城镇化的杭嘉湖地区为例,基于1961—2014年逐日降雨、水位观测资料,构建了水位涨幅(ΔZ)、水位增长速率(k1)和退水速率(k2)等指标,旨在揭示变化环境下该地区降雨过程中水位的变化特征及可能的驱动因素.结果表明:1)变化环境下杭嘉湖地区近54年降雨量呈微弱的增加趋势,但降雨过程中的水位涨幅呈下降趋势,尤其是平均水位涨幅呈显著下降趋势,且于2000年左右发生明显变化;突变后水位涨幅下降主要集中在10～50 mm/d的降雨过程中,而大于50 mm/d的降雨过程中突变后水位涨幅较突变前有所升高. 2)从空间分布上来看,各站降雨量与水位涨幅存在明显的空间差异,降雨量总体呈增加趋势,增加趋势东强西弱;大部分站点的水位涨幅却呈下降趋势,其中位于区域南部站点的平均水位涨幅下降趋势较东北部更为明显,水位涨幅呈显著下降站点的空间分布与杭嘉湖南排工程等水利工程的分布较为一致. 3)通过对杭嘉湖地区降雨过程中水位增长速率和退水速率的变化分析发现,突变后较突变前退水速率有所提高,说明近年来水利工程等设施的完善和有序调度使得杭嘉湖地区的排洪能力有所提高,该变化可能是导致杭嘉湖地区地区突变后一定强度的降雨过程中水位涨幅下降的主要原因.而杭嘉湖地区强降雨过程中水位涨幅依然较高,可能是该地区洪峰水位居高不下的主要原因.此外,由于该地区近年来起涨水位抬升明显,对洪峰水位的抬升也有一定影响.
Rapid urbanization and human activities have a profound impact on the hydrological process in Taihu Basin. This paper constructed three indices include the water level rising( ΔZ),the rate of water level rising( k1) and the rate of water level recession( k2). Based on the observation data of daily rainfall and water level during 1961-2014,we try to reveal the variation characteristics of the water level and possible driving factors in the rainfall process in the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region. The results indicate that:( 1) The rainfall shows an increasing trend,but the ΔZ shows a decreasing trend during the rainfall process. Especially,the average water level rising shows a significant decreasing trend and the abrupt change occurs in the year 2000 AD. The decreased ΔZ mainly occurs in the rainfall intensity ranged from 10 mm/d to 50 mm/d after 2000 AD. The ΔZ shows an increased trend in heavy rainfall process above 50 mm/d.( 2) The rainfall in the east shows a significantly increasing trend than in the west.However,ΔZ in many stations is declining,which is more significant in the south. These changes is inseparable from the flood discharge project in the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region.( 3) Through the analysis of the k1 and k2 in the rainfall process,k2 is increased,which indicates that the development of water conservancy facilities and orderly scheduling has improved the flood discharge capacity in recent years. This change may be the main cause for the declined k2 in a certain intensity of rainfall after 2000 AD. The ΔZ remained high in the heavy rainfall process,which can be related to that the current flood discharge capacity that cannot resist the increase of ΔZ. In addition,the incipient rising water level has increased significantly in recent years,which also makes a certain impact on the flood in the study area.
Rapid urbanization and human activities have a profound impact on the hydrological process in Taihu Basin. This paper constructed three indices include the water level rising( ΔZ),the rate of water level rising( k1) and the rate of water level recession( k2). Based on the observation data of daily rainfall and water level during 1961-2014,we try to reveal the variation characteristics of the water level and possible driving factors in the rainfall process in the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region. The results indicate that:( 1) The rainfall shows an increasing trend,but the ΔZ shows a decreasing trend during the rainfall process. Especially,the average water level rising shows a significant decreasing trend and the abrupt change occurs in the year 2000 AD. The decreased ΔZ mainly occurs in the rainfall intensity ranged from 10 mm/d to 50 mm/d after 2000 AD. The ΔZ shows an increased trend in heavy rainfall process above 50 mm/d.( 2) The rainfall in the east shows a significantly increasing trend than in the west.However,ΔZ in many stations is declining,which is more significant in the south. These changes is inseparable from the flood discharge project in the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region.( 3) Through the analysis of the k1 and k2 in the rainfall process,k2 is increased,which indicates that the development of water conservancy facilities and orderly scheduling has improved the flood discharge capacity in recent years. This change may be the main cause for the declined k2 in a certain intensity of rainfall after 2000 AD. The ΔZ remained high in the heavy rainfall process,which can be related to that the current flood discharge capacity that cannot resist the increase of ΔZ. In addition,the incipient rising water level has increased significantly in recent years,which also makes a certain impact on the flood in the study area.
引文
[1] Li W,Maren DSV,Wang ZB et al. Peak discharge increase in hyperconcentrated floods. Advances in Water Resources,2014,67(4):65-77.
[2] He B,Huang X,Ma M et al. Analysis of flash flood disaster characteristics in China from 2011 to 2015. Natural Hazards,2019,90(1):407-420.
[3] Hu ZJ,Wang LL,Tang HW et al. Prediction of the future flood severity in plain river network region based on numerical model:A case study. Journal of Hydrodynamics,2017,29(4):586-595.
[4] Yuan W,Yang K,Tang M et al. Stream structure characteristics and their impact on storage and flood control capacity in the urbanized plain river network. Geographical Research,2005,24(5):717-724.[袁雯,杨凯,唐敏等.平原河网地区河流结构特征及其对调蓄能力的影响.地理研究,2005,24(5):717-724.]
[5] Zhang XQ,Pan L,Xu CY et al. Conditional value-at-risk for nonstationary streamflow and its application for derivation of the adaptive reservoir flood limited water level. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2018,144(3):04018005.
[6] Liu P,Li L,Guo S et al. Optimal design of seasonal flood limited water levels and its application for the Three Gorges Reservoir. Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:1045-1053.
[7] Zhu Z,Dong Z,Yang W et al. Optimal operation research of flood retarding in plain river network region. Water,2017,9(4):280.
[8] Song S,Xu YP,Zhang JX et al. The long-term water level dynamics during urbanization in plain catchment in Yangtze River Delta. Agricultural Water Management,2016,174:93-102.
[9] Xu GL,Xu YP,Luo X et al. Changes of water level induced by human activities at Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain in recent 50 years. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(10):1262-1268.[徐光来,许有鹏,罗贤等.近50年人类活动引起的杭嘉湖平原区水位变化.地理科学,2012,32(10):1262-1268.]
[10] Xu XY,Zhang C,Shen XJ. Discussion of Taihu Basin flood control standards. J Lake Sci,2006,18(4):414-418. DOI:10.18307/2006.0414.[徐向阳,张超,沈晓娟.关于太湖流域防洪标准的讨论.湖泊科学,2006,18(4):414-418.]
[11] Lu CL,Fan BS,Zhu LF. Relation between precipitation around Taihu in the flood season and Taihu water level. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,20(1):51-56.[陆琛莉,范柏松,朱莲芳.环太湖地区汛期降水量与太湖水位的关系.气象科学,2000,20(1):51-56.]
[12] Liu L,Hu CW,Xu ZX et al. Application of scenario analysis technique on future water level foresight of the Taihu Lake.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(4):404-413.[刘浏,胡昌伟,徐宗学等.情景分析技术在未来太湖水位预见中的应用.水利学报,2012,43(4):404-413.]
[13] Yin YX,Xu YP,Chen Y. Temporal and spatial changes of extreme water levels in the typical regions of Taihu Lake basin since the 1950s. Geographical Research,2011,30(6):1077-1088.[尹义星,许有鹏,陈莹.太湖流域典型区50年代以来极值水位时空变化.地理研究,2011,30(6):1077-1088.]
[14] Han LF,Xu YP,Yang L et al. Temporal and spatial change of stream structure in Yangtze River Delta and its driving forces during 1960s-2010s. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(5):819-827.[韩龙飞,许有鹏,杨柳等.近50年长三角地区水系时空变化及其驱动机制.地理学报,2015,70(5):819-827.]
[15] Che Y,Yang K. Function the storage capacity of river network and mitigation of urban storm water disasters based on the consideration of traditional ecological wisdom. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(16):4946-4948.[车越,杨凯.发挥河网调蓄功能消减城市雨洪灾害———基于传统生态智慧的思考.生态学报,2016,36(16):4946-4948.]
[16] Mao HP,Chen XC,Xu KW. Joint operation benefit analysis of the water diversion works of the Hangjiehu and Taipu Gate.Zhejiang Hydrotechnics,2015,(3):94-96.[毛鸿鹏,陈锡超,许科文.杭嘉湖南排工程与太浦闸工程联合调度效益分析.浙江水利科技,2015,(3):94-96.]
[17] Xiang C,Wang YT,Shi GP. Evaluation on flood control and disaster reduction in Hangjiahu polder area. Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power,2014,26(1):29-32.[项春,王益土,施高萍.杭嘉湖圩区防洪减灾能力评价与提升对策研究.浙江水利水电学院学报,2014,26(1):29-32.]
[18] Zhong HY. The brief analysis on multipurpose dam project in flood control and water resource regulation. Water Resources Development Research,2013,4:39-41.[钟惠钰.浅析太湖流域控制性水利枢纽工程在防洪和水资源调度中的作用.水利发展研究,2013,4:39-41.]
[19] Lin ZX. Construction of flood control engineering and countermeasures for flood disaster mitigation in Taihu basin. J Lake Sci,2002,14(1):12-18. DOI:10.18307/2002.0102.[林泽新.太湖流域防洪工程建设及减灾对策.湖泊科学,2002,14(1):12-18.]
[20] Hu YW. Analysis of the effects of water diversion works for water environment improvement in the Hangjiehu District[Dissertation]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2010.[胡尧文.杭嘉湖地区引排水工程改善水环境效果分析[学位论文].杭州:浙江大学,2010.]
[21] Hu CH,Zhang ZH. Research on variation of floodwater stage during the atrophy process of the Lower Yellow River channel.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(8):883-890.[胡春宏,张治昊.黄河下游河道萎缩过程中洪水水位变化研究.水利学报,2012,43(8):883-890.]
[22] Gao Y,Mao XW,Xu WD. Analysis of the influence on the Taihu lake and the area around diversion from the Yangtze river to the Taihu lake. Journal of China Hydrology,2006,26(1):92-94.[高怡,毛新伟,徐卫东.“引江济太”工程对太湖及周边地区的影响分析.水文,2006,26(1):92-94.]
[23] Wu YK,Tao YG,Wang HY. Influence of“Diverting Changjiang river water into Taihu lake”engineering to Zhejiang.Zhejiang Hydrotechnics,2007,(6):13-15.[伍远康,陶永格,王红英.“引江济太”工程对浙江的影响分析.浙江水利科技,2007,(6):13-15.]
[2] He B,Huang X,Ma M et al. Analysis of flash flood disaster characteristics in China from 2011 to 2015. Natural Hazards,2019,90(1):407-420.
[3] Hu ZJ,Wang LL,Tang HW et al. Prediction of the future flood severity in plain river network region based on numerical model:A case study. Journal of Hydrodynamics,2017,29(4):586-595.
[4] Yuan W,Yang K,Tang M et al. Stream structure characteristics and their impact on storage and flood control capacity in the urbanized plain river network. Geographical Research,2005,24(5):717-724.[袁雯,杨凯,唐敏等.平原河网地区河流结构特征及其对调蓄能力的影响.地理研究,2005,24(5):717-724.]
[5] Zhang XQ,Pan L,Xu CY et al. Conditional value-at-risk for nonstationary streamflow and its application for derivation of the adaptive reservoir flood limited water level. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2018,144(3):04018005.
[6] Liu P,Li L,Guo S et al. Optimal design of seasonal flood limited water levels and its application for the Three Gorges Reservoir. Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:1045-1053.
[7] Zhu Z,Dong Z,Yang W et al. Optimal operation research of flood retarding in plain river network region. Water,2017,9(4):280.
[8] Song S,Xu YP,Zhang JX et al. The long-term water level dynamics during urbanization in plain catchment in Yangtze River Delta. Agricultural Water Management,2016,174:93-102.
[9] Xu GL,Xu YP,Luo X et al. Changes of water level induced by human activities at Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain in recent 50 years. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(10):1262-1268.[徐光来,许有鹏,罗贤等.近50年人类活动引起的杭嘉湖平原区水位变化.地理科学,2012,32(10):1262-1268.]
[10] Xu XY,Zhang C,Shen XJ. Discussion of Taihu Basin flood control standards. J Lake Sci,2006,18(4):414-418. DOI:10.18307/2006.0414.[徐向阳,张超,沈晓娟.关于太湖流域防洪标准的讨论.湖泊科学,2006,18(4):414-418.]
[11] Lu CL,Fan BS,Zhu LF. Relation between precipitation around Taihu in the flood season and Taihu water level. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,20(1):51-56.[陆琛莉,范柏松,朱莲芳.环太湖地区汛期降水量与太湖水位的关系.气象科学,2000,20(1):51-56.]
[12] Liu L,Hu CW,Xu ZX et al. Application of scenario analysis technique on future water level foresight of the Taihu Lake.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(4):404-413.[刘浏,胡昌伟,徐宗学等.情景分析技术在未来太湖水位预见中的应用.水利学报,2012,43(4):404-413.]
[13] Yin YX,Xu YP,Chen Y. Temporal and spatial changes of extreme water levels in the typical regions of Taihu Lake basin since the 1950s. Geographical Research,2011,30(6):1077-1088.[尹义星,许有鹏,陈莹.太湖流域典型区50年代以来极值水位时空变化.地理研究,2011,30(6):1077-1088.]
[14] Han LF,Xu YP,Yang L et al. Temporal and spatial change of stream structure in Yangtze River Delta and its driving forces during 1960s-2010s. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(5):819-827.[韩龙飞,许有鹏,杨柳等.近50年长三角地区水系时空变化及其驱动机制.地理学报,2015,70(5):819-827.]
[15] Che Y,Yang K. Function the storage capacity of river network and mitigation of urban storm water disasters based on the consideration of traditional ecological wisdom. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(16):4946-4948.[车越,杨凯.发挥河网调蓄功能消减城市雨洪灾害———基于传统生态智慧的思考.生态学报,2016,36(16):4946-4948.]
[16] Mao HP,Chen XC,Xu KW. Joint operation benefit analysis of the water diversion works of the Hangjiehu and Taipu Gate.Zhejiang Hydrotechnics,2015,(3):94-96.[毛鸿鹏,陈锡超,许科文.杭嘉湖南排工程与太浦闸工程联合调度效益分析.浙江水利科技,2015,(3):94-96.]
[17] Xiang C,Wang YT,Shi GP. Evaluation on flood control and disaster reduction in Hangjiahu polder area. Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power,2014,26(1):29-32.[项春,王益土,施高萍.杭嘉湖圩区防洪减灾能力评价与提升对策研究.浙江水利水电学院学报,2014,26(1):29-32.]
[18] Zhong HY. The brief analysis on multipurpose dam project in flood control and water resource regulation. Water Resources Development Research,2013,4:39-41.[钟惠钰.浅析太湖流域控制性水利枢纽工程在防洪和水资源调度中的作用.水利发展研究,2013,4:39-41.]
[19] Lin ZX. Construction of flood control engineering and countermeasures for flood disaster mitigation in Taihu basin. J Lake Sci,2002,14(1):12-18. DOI:10.18307/2002.0102.[林泽新.太湖流域防洪工程建设及减灾对策.湖泊科学,2002,14(1):12-18.]
[20] Hu YW. Analysis of the effects of water diversion works for water environment improvement in the Hangjiehu District[Dissertation]. Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2010.[胡尧文.杭嘉湖地区引排水工程改善水环境效果分析[学位论文].杭州:浙江大学,2010.]
[21] Hu CH,Zhang ZH. Research on variation of floodwater stage during the atrophy process of the Lower Yellow River channel.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(8):883-890.[胡春宏,张治昊.黄河下游河道萎缩过程中洪水水位变化研究.水利学报,2012,43(8):883-890.]
[22] Gao Y,Mao XW,Xu WD. Analysis of the influence on the Taihu lake and the area around diversion from the Yangtze river to the Taihu lake. Journal of China Hydrology,2006,26(1):92-94.[高怡,毛新伟,徐卫东.“引江济太”工程对太湖及周边地区的影响分析.水文,2006,26(1):92-94.]
[23] Wu YK,Tao YG,Wang HY. Influence of“Diverting Changjiang river water into Taihu lake”engineering to Zhejiang.Zhejiang Hydrotechnics,2007,(6):13-15.[伍远康,陶永格,王红英.“引江济太”工程对浙江的影响分析.浙江水利科技,2007,(6):13-15.]