影响上海PM_(2.5)污染不同源地和路径的数值模拟
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摘要
对2014～2017年上海出现的PM_(2.5)中度及以上污染过程的地面形势进行分析,发现上海出现PM_(2.5)中度及以上污染的地面形势场主要可分为输送型、静稳型和叠加型3种类型,其中输送型是影响上海市PM_(2.5)中度及以上污染的主要天气形势,占比45.8%.通过选取典型个例,分析了3类污染天气型气象成因和维持机制.并利用WRF驱动FLEXPART模式,结合排放源清单,探讨不同污染天气型下影响上海的主要污染物来源:输送型污染有3条影响上海的主要污染传输通道,分别为东路(东海海面)、中路(江苏沿海)和西路(安徽-苏南),主要时段在污染前1d;静稳型污染影响上海的潜在污染源区集中在上海及周边地区;叠加型污染既存在明显污染输送通道,也有明显的上海及周边潜在污染贡献区域.
Synoptic weather patterns during the moderate and severe PM_(2.5) pollution processes in Shanghai from 2014 to 2017 were analyzed in the paper. The pollution processes were classified into 3types, i.e., the transport type, the stagnant type and the combined type. The severe PM_(2.5) pollution events in Shanghai were mostly dominated by the transport type, accounting for 45.8% of total severe pollution events. The FLEXPART model driven by the WRF model with MEIC emissions was used to investigate the meteorological attribution and maintenance mechanisms of air pollution under each weather pattern in this paper. Specifically, the transport type showed 3main pollution transport pathways affected Shanghai, i.e., the eastern pathway(the East China Sea), the middle pathway(Jiangsu coastal area) and the western pathway(Anhui-southern Jiangsu), which mainly occurred 1d before pollution. The stagnant type showed pollution potential source area in Shanghai and its surrounding regions. The combined type showed both apparent transport pathways and potential source area in and nearby Shanghai.
Synoptic weather patterns during the moderate and severe PM_(2.5) pollution processes in Shanghai from 2014 to 2017 were analyzed in the paper. The pollution processes were classified into 3types, i.e., the transport type, the stagnant type and the combined type. The severe PM_(2.5) pollution events in Shanghai were mostly dominated by the transport type, accounting for 45.8% of total severe pollution events. The FLEXPART model driven by the WRF model with MEIC emissions was used to investigate the meteorological attribution and maintenance mechanisms of air pollution under each weather pattern in this paper. Specifically, the transport type showed 3main pollution transport pathways affected Shanghai, i.e., the eastern pathway(the East China Sea), the middle pathway(Jiangsu coastal area) and the western pathway(Anhui-southern Jiangsu), which mainly occurred 1d before pollution. The stagnant type showed pollution potential source area in Shanghai and its surrounding regions. The combined type showed both apparent transport pathways and potential source area in and nearby Shanghai.
引文
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[23]Halse A K,Eckhardt S,Schlabach M,et al.Forecasting long-range atmospheric transport episodes of polychlorinated biphenyls using FLEXPART[J].Atmospheric Environment,2013,71(2):335-339.
[24]Foy B,Zavala M,Bei N,et al.Evaluation of WRF mesoscale simulations and particle trajectory analysis for the MILAGRO field campaign[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2009,9(13):4419-4438.
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[26]安兴琴,姚波,李岩,等.利用FLEXPART模式反演中国区域SF6排放量[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(5):1133-1140.An X Q,Yao B,Li Y,et al.Estimating emission of SF6in China by atmospheric observation data and inverse modeling[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(5):1133-1140.
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[28]陈赛华,周广强,朱彬,等.一种快速定量估计大气污染物来源的方法[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(7):2474-2481.Chen S H,Zhou G Q,Zhu B,et al.A method for fast quantification of air pollutant sources[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(7):2474-2481.
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[32]周广强,谢英,吴剑斌,等.基于WRF-Chem模式的华东区域PM_(2.5)预报及偏差原因[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(8):2251-2259.Zhou G Q,Xie Y,Wu J B,et al.WRF-Chem based PM_(2.5) forecast and bias analysis over the East China Region[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(8):2251-2259.
[33]蔡旭晖.湍流微气象观测的印痕分析方法及其应用拓展[J].大气科学,2008,32(1):123-132.Cai X H.Footprint analysis in Micrometeorology and its extended applications[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(1):123-132.
[34]何斌,梅士龙,陆琛莉,等.MEIC排放清单在空气质量模式中的应用研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(10):3658-3668.He B,Mei S L,Lu C L,et al.The application of MEIC emission inventory in air quality model[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(10):3658-3668.
[35]常炉予,许建明,周广强,等.上海典型持续性PM_(2.5)重度污染的数值模拟[J].环境科学,2016,37(3):825-833.Chang L Y,Xu J M,Zhou G Q,et al.A Numerical Study of Typical Heavy Air Pollution Episode of PM_(2.5) in Shanghai[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(3):825-833.
[36]GB3095-2012环境空气质量标准[S].GB3095-2012 Ambient air quality standard[S].
[37]Ye B M,Ji X L,Yang H Z,et al.Concentration and Chemical Composition of PM_(2.5)in Shanghai for a 1-year Period[J].Atmospheric Environment,2003,37(4):499-510.
[38]Zhou G Q,Yang F,Geng F H,et al.Measuring and Modeling Aerosol:Relationship with Haze Events in Shanghai,China[J].Aerosol and Air Quality Research,2014,14(3):783-792.
[2]郭新彪,魏红英.大气PM_(2.5)对健康影响的研究进展[J].科学通报,2013,58(13):1171-1177.Guo X B,Wei H Y.Progress on the health effects of ambient PM_(2.5)pollution[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(13):1171-1177.
[3]浦静姣,徐宏辉,马千里.长江三角洲背景地区大气污染对能见度的影响[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(12):4435-4441.Pu J J,Xu H H,Ma Q L.Impacts of atmospheric pollution on visibility in the background area of Yangtze River Delta,China[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(12):4435-4441.
[4]Zhang L W,Chen X,Xue X D,et al.Long-term exposure to high particulate matter pollution and cardiovascular mortality:a 12-year cohort study in four cities in northern China[J].Environment International,2014,62:41-47.
[5]Mohammad H F,Alexander L,Anderson H R,et al.Global,regional,and national comparative risk assessment of 79behavioral,environmental and occupational,and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188countries,1990~2013:a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2013[J].Lancet,2015,385:117-171.
[6]Pope C.Epidemiology of fine particulate air pollution and human health:biologic mechanisms and who's at risk[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2000,108:713-723.
[7]王郭臣,王珏,信玉洁,等.天津PM10和NO2输送路径及潜在源区研究[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(12):3009-3016.Wang G C,W J,Xin Y J,et al.Transportation pathways and potential source areas of PM10 and NO2 in Tianjin[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(12):3009-3016.
[8]李莉,蔡鋆琳,周敏.2013年12月中国中东部地区严重灰霾期间上海市颗粒物的输送途径及潜在源区贡献分析[J].环境科学,2015,36(7):2327-2336.Li L,Cai J L,Zhou M.Potential source contribution analysis of the particulate matters in Shanghai during the heavy haze episode in Eastern and Middle China in December,2013[J].Environmental Science,2015,36(7):2327-2336.
[9]杨欣,陈义珍,赵妤希,等.2014~2017年北京城区霾污染态势及潜在来源[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(9):3232-3239.Yang X,Chen Y Z,Zhao Y X,et al.Analysis of haze pollution situation and potential sources in Beijing urban area from 2014 to2017[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(9):3232-3239.
[10]许建明,常炉予,马井会,等.上海秋冬季PM_(2.5)污染天气形势的客观分型研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(12):4303-4314.Xu J M,Chang L Y,Ma J H,et al.Objective synoptic weather classification on PM_(2.5) pollution during autumn and winter seasons in Shanghai[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(12):4303-4314.
[11]王茜.利用轨迹模式研究上海大气污染的输送来源[J].环境科学研究,2013,26(4):357-363.Wang Q.Study of air pollution transportation source in Shanghai using trajectory model[J].Research of Environmental Science,2013,26(4):357-363.
[12]张国琏,甄新蓉,谈建国,等.影响上海市空气质量的地面天气类型及气象要素分析[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(1):124-128.Zhang G L,Zhen X R,Tan J G,et al.The analysis of the relationship between the air quality in Shanghai and surface pressure patterns and meteorological factors[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2010,26(1):124-128.
[13]戴竹君,刘端阳,王宏斌,等.江苏秋冬季重度霾的分型研究[J].气象学报,2016,74(1):133-148.Dai Z J,Liu D Y,Wang H B,et al.The classification study of the heavy haze during autumn and winter of Jiangsu[J].Journal of Meteorological Research,2016,74(1):133-148.
[14]杨旭,张小玲,康延臻,等.京津冀地区冬半年空气污染天气分型研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(9):3201-3209.Yang X,Zhang X L,Kang Y Z,et al.Circulation weather type classification for air pollution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during winter[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(9):3201-3209.
[15]Zhang J P,Zhu T,Zhang Q H,et al.The impact of circulation patterns on regional transport pathways and air quality over Beijing and its surroundings[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2012,11(12):33465-33509.
[16]梁卓然,顾婷婷,杨续超,等.基于环流分型法的地面臭氧预测模型[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(12):4469-4479.Liang Z R,Gu T T,Yang X C,et al.Study on circulation classification based surface ozone concentration prediction model[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(12):4469-4479.
[17]Stohl A,Forster C,Frank A,et al.Technical Note:The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version6.2[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2005,5(9):2461-2474.
[18]Seibert P,Frank A.Source-receptor matrix calculation with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model in backward mode[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2004,4:51-63.
[19]Stohl A,Trickl T.A textbook example of long-range transport:Simultaneous observation of ozone maxima of stratospheric and North American origin in the free troposphere over Europe[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1999,104(30):445-462.
[20]Stohl A,Forster C,Eckhardt S,et al.A backward modeling study of intercontinental pollution transport using aircraft measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2003,108(D12):4370-4377.
[21]Stohl A,Seibert P,Arduin J.An analytical inversion method for determining regional and global emissions of greenhouse gases:Sensitivity studies and application to halocarbons[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2009,9:1597-1620.
[22]Hirdman D,Sodemann H,Eckhardt S,et al.Source identification of short-lived air pollutants in the Arctic using statistical analysis of measurement data and particle dispersion model output[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2010,9(5):669-693.
[23]Halse A K,Eckhardt S,Schlabach M,et al.Forecasting long-range atmospheric transport episodes of polychlorinated biphenyls using FLEXPART[J].Atmospheric Environment,2013,71(2):335-339.
[24]Foy B,Zavala M,Bei N,et al.Evaluation of WRF mesoscale simulations and particle trajectory analysis for the MILAGRO field campaign[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2009,9(13):4419-4438.
[25]李岩,安兴琴,姚波,等.北京地区FLEXPART模式适用性初步研究[J].环境科学学报,2010,30(8):1674-1681.Li Y,An X Q,Yao B,et al.A preliminary study on the applicability of the FLEXPART model to Beijing[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2010,30(8):1674-1681.
[26]安兴琴,姚波,李岩,等.利用FLEXPART模式反演中国区域SF6排放量[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(5):1133-1140.An X Q,Yao B,Li Y,et al.Estimating emission of SF6in China by atmospheric observation data and inverse modeling[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(5):1133-1140.
[27]吴保见,王昆,贾立,等.源项对FLEXPART模式模拟福岛核事故放射性物质长距离传输的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(1):10-22.Wu B J,Wang K,Jia L,et al.Influences of source term on long-range transport of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident with FLEXPART model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(1):10-22.
[28]陈赛华,周广强,朱彬,等.一种快速定量估计大气污染物来源的方法[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(7):2474-2481.Chen S H,Zhou G Q,Zhu B,et al.A method for fast quantification of air pollutant sources[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(7):2474-2481.
[29]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
[30]Skamarock W C,Klemp J B,Dudhia J,et al.A description of the advanced research WRF Version 3[Z].Ncar Technical Note,2008,NCAR/TN-475+STR.
[31]王晓君,马浩.新一代中尺度预报模式(WRF)国内应用进展[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(11):1191-1199.Wang X J,Ma H.Progress of application of the Weather Research and forecast(WRF)model in China[J].Advances in Earth Science,2011,26(11):1191-1199.
[32]周广强,谢英,吴剑斌,等.基于WRF-Chem模式的华东区域PM_(2.5)预报及偏差原因[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(8):2251-2259.Zhou G Q,Xie Y,Wu J B,et al.WRF-Chem based PM_(2.5) forecast and bias analysis over the East China Region[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(8):2251-2259.
[33]蔡旭晖.湍流微气象观测的印痕分析方法及其应用拓展[J].大气科学,2008,32(1):123-132.Cai X H.Footprint analysis in Micrometeorology and its extended applications[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2008,32(1):123-132.
[34]何斌,梅士龙,陆琛莉,等.MEIC排放清单在空气质量模式中的应用研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(10):3658-3668.He B,Mei S L,Lu C L,et al.The application of MEIC emission inventory in air quality model[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(10):3658-3668.
[35]常炉予,许建明,周广强,等.上海典型持续性PM_(2.5)重度污染的数值模拟[J].环境科学,2016,37(3):825-833.Chang L Y,Xu J M,Zhou G Q,et al.A Numerical Study of Typical Heavy Air Pollution Episode of PM_(2.5) in Shanghai[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(3):825-833.
[36]GB3095-2012环境空气质量标准[S].GB3095-2012 Ambient air quality standard[S].
[37]Ye B M,Ji X L,Yang H Z,et al.Concentration and Chemical Composition of PM_(2.5)in Shanghai for a 1-year Period[J].Atmospheric Environment,2003,37(4):499-510.
[38]Zhou G Q,Yang F,Geng F H,et al.Measuring and Modeling Aerosol:Relationship with Haze Events in Shanghai,China[J].Aerosol and Air Quality Research,2014,14(3):783-792.