2016年1月云南低温雨雪灾害的原因分析
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摘要
应用高空探测资料、地面实况观测资料、以及美国NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,分析2016年1月22日至26日云南出现的大范围低温雨雪灾害性天气产生的原因。结果表明:这次过程造成滇中及以东以北大部地区最高气温降幅达10℃~18℃,全省出现大范围持续雨雪天气,滇中及以东以北地区和南部高海拔地区降雪明显有9个县最低气温突破历史同期极值。这次灾害天气过程是强冷空气南压影响云南形成降温,并受南支槽东移影响,孟加拉湾的西南暖湿气流与北方冷空气交汇造成云南大部分地区出现雨雪天气。另外,水汽条件、动力条件的较好配合也是这次强寒潮天气产生的原因。
This process was analyzed based on atmospheric sounding data,ground observation data and NCEP/NCAR1° × 1°interval reanalysis data. This paper analyzed the causes of the large-scale low-temperature rain and snow disaster in Yunnan from January 22 to 26,2016. Results showed that this process resulted in a decrease in temperatures of 10 ° C to 18 ° C in most parts of the north and east and the central of Yunnan province. The province has a large range of sustained rain and snow weather,the snowfall in central and north and the east regions and southern high altitude areas was obviously,9 counties have a minimum temperature breakthrough over the same period the extreme value. The course of this disaster weather process was that the strong cold air moving southward caused Yunnan cooling,and because of the south trough moving eastward,the southwest warm and humid air flow of the Bay of Bengal intersected with the north cold air. In addition,the good cooperation of water vapor condition and dynamic condition was also the reason of this cold wave weather process.
This process was analyzed based on atmospheric sounding data,ground observation data and NCEP/NCAR1° × 1°interval reanalysis data. This paper analyzed the causes of the large-scale low-temperature rain and snow disaster in Yunnan from January 22 to 26,2016. Results showed that this process resulted in a decrease in temperatures of 10 ° C to 18 ° C in most parts of the north and east and the central of Yunnan province. The province has a large range of sustained rain and snow weather,the snowfall in central and north and the east regions and southern high altitude areas was obviously,9 counties have a minimum temperature breakthrough over the same period the extreme value. The course of this disaster weather process was that the strong cold air moving southward caused Yunnan cooling,and because of the south trough moving eastward,the southwest warm and humid air flow of the Bay of Bengal intersected with the north cold air. In addition,the good cooperation of water vapor condition and dynamic condition was also the reason of this cold wave weather process.
引文
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[2]张万诚,郑建萌,万云霞,等.气候变化背景下低纬高原地区水资源的分布及其变化[M].北京:气象出版社,2014.
[3]田永丽,张万诚,陈新梅,等.近48年云南6种灾害性天气事件频数的时空变化[J].云南大学学报,2010,32(5):561-567.
[4]杨晓静,徐宗学,左德鹏,等.云南省1958-2013年极端降水时空变化特征分析[J].灾害学,2015,30(4):178-186.
[5]张万诚,郑建萌,任菊章.云南极端气候干旱的特征分析[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):59-64.
[6]王遵娅,丁一汇.近53年中国寒潮的变化特征及其可能原因[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1068-1076.
[7]索渺清,丁一汇.南支槽与孟加拉湾风暴结合对一次高原暴雪过程的影响[J].气象,2014,40(9):1033-1047.
[8]张腾飞,鲁亚斌,张杰,等.2000年以来云南4次强降雪过程的对比分析[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(1):64-72.
[9]张腾飞,鲁亚斌,张杰,等.一次低纬高原地区大到暴雪天气过程的诊断分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(4):696-703.
[10]任菊章,郑建萌,许彦艳,等.2007年冬季西伯利亚高压季节内变化对云南气温的影响[J].云南大学学报,2015,37(3):386-398.
[11]许美玲,段旭,杞明辉.云南省天气预报员手册[M].北京:气象出版社,2011.
[12]云南省气象局.云南省气候公报2016[R].昆明:云南省气象局,2016.