2007年冬季西伯利亚高压季节内变化对云南气温的影响
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摘要
应用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料中风场、温度场、气压场和位势高度场资料,以及云南96个站点的气温资料,分析2007年冬季西伯利亚高压的季节内变化特征,及对云南2007年冬季气温的影响.结果表明:2007年冬季云南平均气温和西伯利亚高压均具有显著的10~20 d和30~60 d振荡特征.冬季的4次强降温过程主要受云南平均气温10~20 d振荡的控制,而其30~60 d振荡则是提供大的背景场.2007年冬季,云南平均气温与西伯利亚高压存在超过95%显著性检验的滞后负相关关系,其中滞后18 d左右时负相关值最大.分析4次强降温过程前期的大气环流背景可知,当西伯利亚高压30~60 d振荡处于负位相时,大气10~20 d振荡环流表现出西伯利亚高压发展、盛期、南压和减弱4个时期,后期云南的降温受高压盛期和南压的影响大;而当西伯利亚高压处于30~60 d振荡的正位相时,大气10~20 d振荡环流特征表现为阻塞高压持续维持、冷空气持续向南传播的特征,导致后期云南降温持续时间久,降温幅度大.可见,影响云南地区冷空气的强弱不仅与西伯利亚高压30~60 d振荡有关,与10~20 d振荡也有直接的关系.
Using daily observations of surface air temperature in Yunnan and NCEP / NCAR daily data during winter from 1961 to 2008,the characteristics of the low frequency oscillation on the temperature in Yunnan are studied by the methods of power spectrum analysis and Lanczos filter. The results show that the characteristic of biweekly oscillation on the temperature in Yunnan is distinctness,especially that in 2007 / 2008 winter. Analysis the circulation system in 2007 / 2008 winter,when the 30—60 d oscillation on Siberian High exists the negative phase,superposition of the 10—20 d oscillation on Siberian High make the characteristics of the 10—20 d oscillation on circulation system shows that cold wave developed,broken out and died out.When the 30—60 d oscillation on Siberian High exists the positive phase,superposition of the 10—20 d oscillation on Siberian High make the blocking high hold out and strong cold air southerly propagate.It is obviously that the degree of cold air affected Yunnan is not only related with 30—60 d oscillation on Siberian High,but also with 10—20 d oscillation on Siberian High.
Using daily observations of surface air temperature in Yunnan and NCEP / NCAR daily data during winter from 1961 to 2008,the characteristics of the low frequency oscillation on the temperature in Yunnan are studied by the methods of power spectrum analysis and Lanczos filter. The results show that the characteristic of biweekly oscillation on the temperature in Yunnan is distinctness,especially that in 2007 / 2008 winter. Analysis the circulation system in 2007 / 2008 winter,when the 30—60 d oscillation on Siberian High exists the negative phase,superposition of the 10—20 d oscillation on Siberian High make the characteristics of the 10—20 d oscillation on circulation system shows that cold wave developed,broken out and died out.When the 30—60 d oscillation on Siberian High exists the positive phase,superposition of the 10—20 d oscillation on Siberian High make the blocking high hold out and strong cold air southerly propagate.It is obviously that the degree of cold air affected Yunnan is not only related with 30—60 d oscillation on Siberian High,but also with 10—20 d oscillation on Siberian High.
引文
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[24]马宁,李跃凤,琚建华.2008年初中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气的季节内振荡特征[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):318-327.MA N,LI Y F,JU J H.Intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of extreme cold,snowy and freezing rainy weather in southern China in early 2008[J].Plateau Meteor,2011,30(2):318-327.
[25]丁一汇.东亚寒潮冷空气的传播和行星尺度作用[J].应用气象学报,1991,2(2):124-132.DING Y H.The propagation of the winter monsoon during cold air outbreaks in east Asia and the associated planetary-scale effect[J].Quarterly J Appl Meteor,1991,2(2):124-132.
[26]马晓青,丁一汇,徐海明,等.2004/2005年冬季强寒潮事件与大气低频波动关系的研究[J].大气科学,2008(32):380-394.MA X Q,DING Y H,XU H M,et al.The relation between strong cold waves and Low-Frequency waves during the winter of 2004/2005[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,2008(32):380-394.
[27]KALNAY E,KANAMITUS M,KISTLER R,等.美国国家环境预报中心和大气科学研究中心40年再分析资料计划[J].美国气象学会通报,1996,77(3):437-471.KALNAY E,KANAMITUS M,KISTLER R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[28]云南省气象科学研究所.云南天气灾害史料[Z].1980,12.The weather disasters in yunnan province historical data.Yunnan Research Institute of Meteorology[Z],1980.12
[29]晏红明,王灵,朱勇,等.2008年初云南低温雨雪冰冻天气的气候成因分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):870-879.YAN H M,WANG L,ZHU Y.Cause analyses of severe cold and snowy weather formation in Yunnan in early2008[J].Plateau Meteor,2009,28(4):870-879.
[30]黄华丽,刘火胜.2008年初低温雨雪天气特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(30):17 122-17 125.HUANG H L,LIU H S.Weather characteristics analysis on the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather in the beginning of 2008[J].J Anhui Agri Sci,2010,38(30):17 122-17 125.
[31]武斌义,王佳.冬季北极涛动、西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风[J].地球物理研究通报,2002,29(19):1 897-1 901.WU B Y,WANG J.Winter arctic oscillation,siberian high and east asian winter monsoon[J].Geo Res Lett,2002,29(19):1 897-1 901.
[2]MADDEN R A,JULIAN P R.Description of global scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40—50 day period[J].J Atmos Sci,1972,29(6):1 109-1 123.
[3]李崇银,武培立,张勤.北半球大气环流30~60 d振荡的一些特征[J].中国科学(B辑),1990,7:764-774.LI C Y,WU P L,QING Z.Characters of a 30—60 day atmospheric oscillation in the northern hemisphere[J].Scientia Sinica Chimica,1990,7:764-774.
[4]李崇银.大气低频振荡[M].北京:气象出版社,1993:3-5.LI C Y.The atmospheric low frequency oscillation[M].Pe Kin:China Meteorological Press,1993:3-5.
[5]李崇银,龙振夏,穆明权.大气季节内振荡及其重要作用[J].大气科学,2003,27(4):519-535.LI C Y,LONG Z X,MU M Q.Atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation and its important effect[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,2003,27(4):519-535.
[6]KINGTSE C M.Adaptive filtering and prediction of intraseasonal oscillations[J].Mon Wea Rev,2001,129:802-817.
[7]WALISER D E,LAU K M,STERN W,等.季节内振荡的的可预报性[J].美国气象科学,2003,84:33-50.WALISER D E,LAU K M,STERN W,et al.Potential predictability of the Madden Julian oscillation[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2003,84:33-50.
[8]WHEELER M C,HENDON H H.全天实时多元性季节内振荡指数:用于监测和预报的指数研究[J].天气月评,2004,132:1 917-1 932.WHEELER M C,HENDON H H.An all-season realtime multivariate MJO index:Development of an index for monitoring and prediction[J].Mon Wea Rev,2004,132:1 917-1 932.
[9]仇永炎.中期天气预报[M].北京:科学出版社,1985:333-337.QIU Y Y.Medium-range forecast[M].Beijing:Science Press,1985:333-337.
[10]李崇银.北半球大气运动的30~50 d振荡[C].长期天气预报论文集.北京:气象出版社,1990:63-73.LI C Y.Detection of a 30—50 day oscillation in the northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation[C].Long-range weather forecast proceedings.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1990:63-73.
[11]杨松,朱乾根.东亚地区冬季大气低频振荡与冷空气活动关系的初步研究[J].南京气象学院学报,1990,13(3):339-347.YANG S,ZHU Q G.Oscillation and its relation to cold air activities in Asian winter[J].J Nanjing Ins Meteo,1990,13(3):339-347.
[12]金祖辉,孙淑清.东亚大陆冬季风的低频振荡特征[J].大气科学,1996,20(1):101-111.Jin Zuhui,Sun Shuqing.The Characteristics of low frequency oscillations in winter monsoon over the eastern Asia[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci(in Chinese),1996,20(1):101-111.
[13]纪忠萍,谷德军,梁健,等.近55年影响广州的强冷空气及其准双周变化[J],大气科学,2007,31(5):999-1 010.JI Z P,GU D J,LIANG J,et al.The strong cold air occurrences affecting Guangzhou and their biweekly Oscillation during the last 55 years[J].Chinese J Atmo Sci,2007,31(5):999-1 010.
[14]郑建萌,段旭.云南春季强低温的诊断分析[J].气象,2001,27(5):35-37.ZHENG J M,DUAN X.Severe spring chilling diagnostic analysis in Yunnan[J].Meteor Mon,2001,27(5):35-37.
[15]尤红,曹中和,郭文华,等.昆明静止锋下的云南强倒春寒天气分析[J].气象,2006,32(3):56-62.YOU H,CAO Z H,GUO W H,et al.Analysis of Yunnan severe coldness in the late spring under Kunming Quasi-stationary front[J].Meteor Mon,2006,32(3):56-62.
[16]周国莲,普贵明,李磊,等.2005年3月云南倒春寒天气的成因分析[J].气象,2006,32(12):82-87.ZHOU G L,PU G M,LI L,et al.Causality analysis of cold late spring of Yunnan in March 2005[J].Meteor Mon,2006,32(12):82-87.
[17]张云瑾,戴卫帮,程建刚.云南省“倒春寒”灾害性天气的研究[J].云南地理环境研究,2007,19(3):16-25.ZHANG Y J,DAI W B,CHENG J G,The analysis of the processesof strong cold air in spring in Yunnan[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2007,19(3):16-25.
[18]陶诗言,卫捷.2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):337-350.TAO S Y,WEI J.Severe snow and freezing-rain in January 2008 in the southern China[J].Climatic Environ Res,2008,13(4):337-350.
[19]李崇银,杨辉,顾薇.中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(2):113-122.LI C Y,YANG H,GU W.Cause of severe weather with cold air freezing rain and snow over south China in January 2008[J].Climatic Environ Res,2008,13(2):113-122.
[20]赵思雄,孙建华.2008年初南方雨雪冰冻天气的环流场和多尺度特征[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):351-367.ZHAO S X,SUN J H.Multi-Scale systems and conceptual model on freezing rain and snow storm over southern China during January-February 2008[J].Climatic Environ Res,2008,13(4):351-367.
[21]高辉,陈丽娟,贾小龙,等.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析Ⅱ——成因分析[J].气象,2008,34(4):101-106.GAO H,CHEN L J,JIA X L,et al.Analysis of the severe cold surge,Ice-snow and frozen disasters in south China during January 2008:Ⅱ.Possible climatic causes[J].Meteor Mon,2008,34(4):101-106.
[22]王东海,柳崇健,刘英,等.2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气特征及其天气动力学成因的初步分析[J].气象学报,2008,66(3):405-422.WANG D H,LIU C J,LIU Y,et al.A preliminary analysis of features and causes of the snow storm event over the southern China in January 2008[J].Acta Meteor Sinica,2008,66(3):405-422.
[23]吴俊杰,袁卓建,钱钰坤,等.热带季节内振荡对2008年初南方持续性冰冻雨雪天气的影响[J].热带气象学报,2009,25(S1):103-111.WU J J,YUAN Z J,QIAN Y K,et al.The role of intraseasonal oscillation in the southern-China snowstroms during January 2008[J].J Tro Meteor,2009,25(S1):103-111.
[24]马宁,李跃凤,琚建华.2008年初中国南方低温雨雪冰冻天气的季节内振荡特征[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):318-327.MA N,LI Y F,JU J H.Intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of extreme cold,snowy and freezing rainy weather in southern China in early 2008[J].Plateau Meteor,2011,30(2):318-327.
[25]丁一汇.东亚寒潮冷空气的传播和行星尺度作用[J].应用气象学报,1991,2(2):124-132.DING Y H.The propagation of the winter monsoon during cold air outbreaks in east Asia and the associated planetary-scale effect[J].Quarterly J Appl Meteor,1991,2(2):124-132.
[26]马晓青,丁一汇,徐海明,等.2004/2005年冬季强寒潮事件与大气低频波动关系的研究[J].大气科学,2008(32):380-394.MA X Q,DING Y H,XU H M,et al.The relation between strong cold waves and Low-Frequency waves during the winter of 2004/2005[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci,2008(32):380-394.
[27]KALNAY E,KANAMITUS M,KISTLER R,等.美国国家环境预报中心和大气科学研究中心40年再分析资料计划[J].美国气象学会通报,1996,77(3):437-471.KALNAY E,KANAMITUS M,KISTLER R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[28]云南省气象科学研究所.云南天气灾害史料[Z].1980,12.The weather disasters in yunnan province historical data.Yunnan Research Institute of Meteorology[Z],1980.12
[29]晏红明,王灵,朱勇,等.2008年初云南低温雨雪冰冻天气的气候成因分析[J].高原气象,2009,28(4):870-879.YAN H M,WANG L,ZHU Y.Cause analyses of severe cold and snowy weather formation in Yunnan in early2008[J].Plateau Meteor,2009,28(4):870-879.
[30]黄华丽,刘火胜.2008年初低温雨雪天气特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(30):17 122-17 125.HUANG H L,LIU H S.Weather characteristics analysis on the cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather in the beginning of 2008[J].J Anhui Agri Sci,2010,38(30):17 122-17 125.
[31]武斌义,王佳.冬季北极涛动、西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风[J].地球物理研究通报,2002,29(19):1 897-1 901.WU B Y,WANG J.Winter arctic oscillation,siberian high and east asian winter monsoon[J].Geo Res Lett,2002,29(19):1 897-1 901.