近59年许昌市降水演变特征分析
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摘要
利用许昌市13个降水量观测点1956-2014年的月降水量数据,结合线性回归、Mann-Kendall秩相关检验、累积距平和Morlet连续复小波分析等方法,研究了许昌市不同时间尺度降水量的演变特征。结果表明:许昌市年、雨季、旱季降水量分别以8. 7、1. 6、7. 3 mm/10a的速率不显著减少;年、雨季、旱季降水量在空间上均呈现出自东北向西南方向递增的分布格局;年降水量在1964年发生了由多到少的突变;雨季、旱季降水量在1999年分别发生了由少到多和由多到少的突变;年降水量存在着14、22、5a的第一、第二、第三主周期变化;雨季、旱季降水量同样存在着多个时间尺度的周期变化特征;根据不同时间尺度主周期判断,许昌市即将进入降水偏丰时期。研究结果可为许昌市防洪抗旱和水生态文明建设提供依据。
Using the monthly precipitation data of 13 precipitation observation points from 1956 to 2014 in Xuchang City,combined with the linear regression,Mann-Kendall rank correlation test,cumulative anomaly and Morlet continuous complex wavelet analysis,the evolution characteristics of the precipitation at different time scales in Xuchang City were studied. The results show that the annual precipitation and the precipitation in rainy season and dry season in Xuchang decrease non-significantly at the rates of 8. 7 mm/10a,1. 6 mm/10a,7. 3 mm/10a respectively. The annual precipitation,the rainy season and dry season,precipitation show a spatial pattern that increases from northeast to southwest. The annual precipitation reduced abruptly in 1964,and the precipitation of the rainy season increased and dry season reduced respectively in 1999. The first,second and third major cycle changes of annual precipitation respectively were 14a,22a,and 5a. The precipitation of the rainy season and dry season also have several time scale periodic variation. According to the features of the major cycle changes,Xuchang city will enter a period of relatively abundant precipitation. The research results can provide basis for flood control and drought relief,and water ecological civilization construction in Xuchang City.
Using the monthly precipitation data of 13 precipitation observation points from 1956 to 2014 in Xuchang City,combined with the linear regression,Mann-Kendall rank correlation test,cumulative anomaly and Morlet continuous complex wavelet analysis,the evolution characteristics of the precipitation at different time scales in Xuchang City were studied. The results show that the annual precipitation and the precipitation in rainy season and dry season in Xuchang decrease non-significantly at the rates of 8. 7 mm/10a,1. 6 mm/10a,7. 3 mm/10a respectively. The annual precipitation,the rainy season and dry season,precipitation show a spatial pattern that increases from northeast to southwest. The annual precipitation reduced abruptly in 1964,and the precipitation of the rainy season increased and dry season reduced respectively in 1999. The first,second and third major cycle changes of annual precipitation respectively were 14a,22a,and 5a. The precipitation of the rainy season and dry season also have several time scale periodic variation. According to the features of the major cycle changes,Xuchang city will enter a period of relatively abundant precipitation. The research results can provide basis for flood control and drought relief,and water ecological civilization construction in Xuchang City.
引文
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[21]徐建新,陈学凯,黄鑫,等.贵州省近50年降水量时空分布及变化特征[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(2):10-14.
[22]王晓莹,杨丹,邵银龙.南京市近60年气候变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(4):119-124.
[23]汤国安,杨昕.Arc GIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[2]董磊华,熊立华,于坤霞,等.气候变化与人类活动对水文影响的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):278-285.
[3]王国庆,张建云,章四龙.全球气候变化对中国淡水资源及其脆弱性影响研究综述[J].水资源与水工程学报,2005,16(2):7-10+15.
[4]STOCKER T F,DAHE Q,PLATTNER G K.Climate change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[J].Contribution of Working,2013,43(22):866-871.
[5]曾小凡,叶磊,翟建青,等.1961-2010年金沙江流域降水时空演变特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(3):402-407.
[6]WANG Shuai,LEI Xiaohui,ZHANG Feng.Analysis on variation characteristics of precipitation time series in Weihe River Basin during the Past 55 Years[J].Advanced Materials Research,2013,684:246-252.
[7]陈阿娇,贺新光,秦建新,等.长江流域近51a来日降水时空变异的多尺度特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(5):794-803.
[8]曹永强,张亮亮,王学凤,等.近50年辽宁省气温及降水量变化趋势与突变特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(1):6-9+39.
[9]苏丰敏,李文峰,王军,等.许昌市降水资源及变化分析研究[J].中国农村小康科技,2011(2):20-23.
[10]李谢辉,王磊.河南省历史水旱灾害危险性分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(8):1526-1532.
[11]周念清,夏学敏,朱勍,等.许昌市水资源多模式联合调度与合理配置[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):7-13.
[12]顾万龙,王记芳,竹磊磊.1956-2007年河南省降水和水资源变化及评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,06(4):277-283.
[13]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术:第2版[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[14]丁楠,俞芳琴,刘俊,等.1961-2011年深圳市降水变化趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(5):61-64.
[15]章诞武,丛振涛,倪广恒.基于中国气象资料的趋势检验方法对比分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):490-496.
[16]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.近50年陕南地区降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):14-19+25.
[17]何庆龙,周维博,夏伟,等.延安市近60年降水时空特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):31-37.
[18]张应华,宋献方.水文气象序列趋势分析与变异诊断的方法及其对比[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(4):652-665.
[19]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[20]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011.
[21]徐建新,陈学凯,黄鑫,等.贵州省近50年降水量时空分布及变化特征[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(2):10-14.
[22]王晓莹,杨丹,邵银龙.南京市近60年气候变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(4):119-124.
[23]汤国安,杨昕.Arc GIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.