中国飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)灾害地理分布模拟及其生物气候因子分析
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摘要
飞蝗Locusta migratoria(Linnaeus)系斑翅蝗科Oedipodidae飞蝗属Locusta Linnaeus洲际性农业重大害虫,在我国主要包括东亚飞蝗L.migratoria manilensis(Meyen)、亚洲飞蝗L.migratoria(Linnaeus)和西藏飞蝗L.migratoria tibetensis Chen。掌控飞蝗灾害的地理空间分布并预测起潜在的适宜分布区,对于我国飞蝗灾害的综合防控具有重要意义。结合三种中国飞蝗灾害记录地理信息和生物环境环境因子参数,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息技术(GIS),在3 km×3 km尺度上对三种飞蝗灾害在中国的地理分布空间格局梯度、灾害风险概率和风险等级进行了模拟预测与分析,并对影响分布的关键生物气候环境因子进行了分析。结果显示,蝗灾害风险区的地理分布模拟结果与历史记录完全符合,ROC检验表明MaxEnt模型预测可靠性极高。三种飞蝗东亚飞蝗、亚洲飞蝗和西藏飞蝗在中国的灾害风险区总面积依次分别为315.87×10~4km~2、395.80×10~4km~2和125.00×10~4km~2,分别占国土面积的33.43%、41.96%和13.25%。东亚飞蝗和亚洲飞蝗的灾害风险区存在75.8×10~4km~2的空间重叠,主要分布于我国农牧交错区及以南区域。三种飞蝗灾害风险区的地理梯度与分布格局与中国三大自然地理区高度吻合,其地理分布格局表现出显著的经度和纬度空间梯度异质性。刀切法检测(Jackknife test)表明,三种飞蝗灾害的主导生物—气候影响因子的不同导致了其地理分布格局的显著差异,表明蝗灾爆发概率同时受到各自不同飞蝗物种对气候环境的适应性与地理空间隔离作用的共同制约。研究结果可为我国飞蝗灾害的跨界联合全程防控、区域联网监测联控和综合治理提供参考依据。
One of the most persistent and damaging natural hazards is the migratory locust plague in China,which is the most widespread locust species,and poses a threat to agricultural production and,subsequently,livelihoods and food security.In this study,based on the data on the history reported occurrence data of locust disasters,we applied MaxEnt niche models to predict and analyze the distribution area of the locust outbreak risk for three main species of migratory locust in China.It consists of a geographical information system,the spatial distribution of the locust outbreak risk for the Asian migratory locust(Locusta migratoria migratoria(Linnaeus)),the Oriental Migratory Locust(Locusta migratoria manilensis(Meyen)) and the Tibetan migratory locust(Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen) were mapped at 3 km×3 km resolution,and the degree of outbreak risk is evaluated.The results of the migratory locust plague probability modelling displays a heterogeneous distribution of locust disasters risk probability in China.The area of low to high risk for three species of locust infestation is 3 158 667 km~2,3 958 002 km~2 and 1 250 037 km~2 respectively,accounted for 33.43%,41.96% and 13.25% of China's total land area respectively.The disaster risk areas of L.migratoria migratoria and L.migratoria manilensis have a spatial overlap of 757 890 km~2,mainly distributed in the farming-pastoral ecotone and the south region of China.The geographic patterns of the spatial distribution of the locust outbreak for three species along latitudinal and longitudinal gradients are highly consistent with the three major natural geographical areas in China.The predicted results were then tested by ROC curves using suitability indexes(AUC),the mean AUC across eight different spatial scales is ranged from 0.924 to 0.987.The Jackknife test analysis reveals the linkages between locust infestation risk and main environmental factors and the results show that the difference of the dominant influence factors of the three species of migratory locust disasters leads to the significant differences and heterogeneity of geographical distribution pattern in China.The results show that the probability of locust disaster outbreak is simultaneously restricted by the adaptability of different migratory locust species to the climate environment and their geographical space isolation.The study will provide vital information to help manage and control the outbreak risk of the migratory locust disaster.
One of the most persistent and damaging natural hazards is the migratory locust plague in China,which is the most widespread locust species,and poses a threat to agricultural production and,subsequently,livelihoods and food security.In this study,based on the data on the history reported occurrence data of locust disasters,we applied MaxEnt niche models to predict and analyze the distribution area of the locust outbreak risk for three main species of migratory locust in China.It consists of a geographical information system,the spatial distribution of the locust outbreak risk for the Asian migratory locust(Locusta migratoria migratoria(Linnaeus)),the Oriental Migratory Locust(Locusta migratoria manilensis(Meyen)) and the Tibetan migratory locust(Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen) were mapped at 3 km×3 km resolution,and the degree of outbreak risk is evaluated.The results of the migratory locust plague probability modelling displays a heterogeneous distribution of locust disasters risk probability in China.The area of low to high risk for three species of locust infestation is 3 158 667 km~2,3 958 002 km~2 and 1 250 037 km~2 respectively,accounted for 33.43%,41.96% and 13.25% of China's total land area respectively.The disaster risk areas of L.migratoria migratoria and L.migratoria manilensis have a spatial overlap of 757 890 km~2,mainly distributed in the farming-pastoral ecotone and the south region of China.The geographic patterns of the spatial distribution of the locust outbreak for three species along latitudinal and longitudinal gradients are highly consistent with the three major natural geographical areas in China.The predicted results were then tested by ROC curves using suitability indexes(AUC),the mean AUC across eight different spatial scales is ranged from 0.924 to 0.987.The Jackknife test analysis reveals the linkages between locust infestation risk and main environmental factors and the results show that the difference of the dominant influence factors of the three species of migratory locust disasters leads to the significant differences and heterogeneity of geographical distribution pattern in China.The results show that the probability of locust disaster outbreak is simultaneously restricted by the adaptability of different migratory locust species to the climate environment and their geographical space isolation.The study will provide vital information to help manage and control the outbreak risk of the migratory locust disaster.
引文
[1] 陈永林.中国主要蝗虫及蝗灾的生态学治理[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:1-35.[CHEN Yonglin.Main locusts and ecological management in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007:1-35.]
[2] 陈家祥.中国历代蝗灾之记录[M].杭州:浙江昆虫局年刊,1935.[CHEN Jiaxiang.Locust records of Chinese dynasties[M].Hangzhou:Annals of Zhejiang Bureau of Insects,1935.]
[3] 吴福祯.中国的飞蝗[M].上海:永祥印书馆,1951.[WU Fuzhen.Migratory locusts in China[M].Shanghai:Yongxiang Printing House,1951.]
[4] 陈永林.中国的飞蝗研究及其治理的主要成就[J].昆虫知识,2000,37(1):50-59.[CHEN Yonglin.Main achievements about the research and management of locust plague in China[J].Entomological Knowledge,2000,37(1):50-59.]
[5] 李钢,王乃昂,李卓仑.中国历史蝗灾动态的社会影响及生态环境意义[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(11):1357-1366.[LI Gang,WANG Nai’ang,LI Zhuolun.Study on social influence,environmental significance and ecological explanation of the dynamics of locust plagues in China during the historical period[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(11):1375-1384.]
[6] 马世骏.东亚飞蝗蝗区的结构与转化[J].昆虫学报,1962,11(1):17-30.[MA Shijun.The structure and transformation of the oriental locust breeding areas[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica,1962,11(1):17-30.]
[7] 马世骏.中国东亚飞蝗蝗区的研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1965.[MA Shijun.Research on the oriental locust breeding areas in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1965.]
[8] 张民照,康乐.飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)地理种群在中国的遗传分化[J].中国科学(生命科学),2005,35(3):220-230.[ZHANG Minzhao,KANG Le.Genetic divergence among geographical populations of the migratory locust in China[J].Scientia Sinica(Vitae),2005,35(3):220-230.]
[9] 李春选,马恩波,郑先云,等.中国东亚飞蝗四个地理种群遗传结构的比较研究[J].昆虫学报.2004,47(1):73-79.[LI Chunxuan,MA Enbo,ZHEN Xianyun,et al.Genetic structure of four geographic populations of Locusta migratoria manilensis in China[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica.2004,47(1):73-79.]
[10] 张德兴,闫路娜,康乐,等.对中国飞蝗种下阶元划分和历史演化过程的几点看法[J].动物学报,2003,49(5):125-131.[ZHANG Dexing,YAN Luna,KANG Le,et al.Some unorthodox views on the classification and evolution of the migratory locusts in China prompted by molecular population genetic study[J].Acta Zoologica Sinica,2003,49(5):125-131.]
[11] 朱耿平,刘晨,李敏,等.基于Maxent和GARP模型的日本双棘长蠹在中国的潜在地理分布分析[J].昆虫学报,2014,57(5):581-586.[ZHU Gengping,LIU Chen,LI Min,et al.Potential geographical distribution of Sinoxylon japonicum (Coleoptera:Bostrichidae) in China based on Maxent and GARP models[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica,2014,57(5):581-586.]
[12] MA J W,HAN X Z,Hasibagan,et al.Monitoring East Asian migratory locust plagues using remote sensing data and field investigations[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2005,26:629-634.
[13] 康乐,李鸿昌,陈永林.中国散居型飞蝗地理种群数量性状变异的分析[J].昆虫学报,1989,32(4):418-426.[KANG Le,LI Hongchang,CHEN Yonglin.Analysis of numerical character variations of geographical populations of Locusta migratoria phase solitaria in China[J].Acta Entomol Sinica,1989,32(4):418-426.]
[14] KANG L,CHEN Y L.The analysis of numerical taxonomy to the interrelationship among different geographic populations of Locusta migratoria (L.) phase solitaria (Orthoptera:Acrididae)[J].Sinozoologia,1991,8:71-82.
[15] SIVANPILLAI R,LATCHININSKY A V.Mapping locust habitats in the Amudarya River delta,Uzbekistan,using multi-temporal MODIS imagery[J].Environmental Management,2007,39(6):876-886.
[16] MEYNARD C N,GAY P E,LECOQ M,et al.Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods:Subspecies’ niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change[J].Global Change Biology,2017,23(11):4739-4749.
[17] LAZAR M,ALIOU D,YANG J T,et al.Location and characterization of breeding sites of solitary desert locust using satellite images Landsat 7 ETM+ and Terra MODIS[J].Advances in Entomology,2015,3(1):6-15.
[18] LECOQ M.Recent progress in desert and migratory locust management in Africa:Are preventative actions possible?[J].Journal of Orthoptera Research,2001,10(2):277-291.
[19] MAGOR J I,LECOQ M,HUNTER D M.Preventive control and desert locust plagues[J].Crop Protection,2008,27(12):1527-1533.
[20] PIOU C,LEBOURGEOIS V,BENAHI A S,et al.Coupling historical prospection data and a remotely-sensed vegetation index for the preventative control of desert locusts[J].Basic and Applied Ecology,2013,14(7):593-604.
[21] LECOQ M.Desert locust threat to agricultural development and food security and FAO/International role in its control[J].Arab Journal of Plant Protection,2003,21(2):188-193.
[22] STEVEN J P,ROBERT P A,ROBERT E S.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modeling,190(3-4):231-259,2006.
[23] STEVEN J P,MIROSLAV D.Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[24] 张杰,敖子强,吴永明,等.中华猕猴桃(Actinidia chinensis)在中国的适生性及其潜在地理分布模拟预测[J].热带地理,2017,37(2):218-225.[ZHANG Jie,AO Ziqiang,WU Yongming,et al.Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China based on Maximum Entropy Niche Model and ArcGIS[J].Tropical Geography,2017,37(2):218-225.]
[25] HIJMANS R J,CAMERON S E,PARRA J L,et al.Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(15):1965-1978.
[26] SWORD G A,LECOQ M,SIMPSON S J.Phase polyphenism and preventative locust management[J].Journal of Insect Physiology,2010,56(8):949-957.
[2] 陈家祥.中国历代蝗灾之记录[M].杭州:浙江昆虫局年刊,1935.[CHEN Jiaxiang.Locust records of Chinese dynasties[M].Hangzhou:Annals of Zhejiang Bureau of Insects,1935.]
[3] 吴福祯.中国的飞蝗[M].上海:永祥印书馆,1951.[WU Fuzhen.Migratory locusts in China[M].Shanghai:Yongxiang Printing House,1951.]
[4] 陈永林.中国的飞蝗研究及其治理的主要成就[J].昆虫知识,2000,37(1):50-59.[CHEN Yonglin.Main achievements about the research and management of locust plague in China[J].Entomological Knowledge,2000,37(1):50-59.]
[5] 李钢,王乃昂,李卓仑.中国历史蝗灾动态的社会影响及生态环境意义[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(11):1357-1366.[LI Gang,WANG Nai’ang,LI Zhuolun.Study on social influence,environmental significance and ecological explanation of the dynamics of locust plagues in China during the historical period[J].Progress in Geography,2010,29(11):1375-1384.]
[6] 马世骏.东亚飞蝗蝗区的结构与转化[J].昆虫学报,1962,11(1):17-30.[MA Shijun.The structure and transformation of the oriental locust breeding areas[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica,1962,11(1):17-30.]
[7] 马世骏.中国东亚飞蝗蝗区的研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1965.[MA Shijun.Research on the oriental locust breeding areas in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1965.]
[8] 张民照,康乐.飞蝗(Locusta migratoria)地理种群在中国的遗传分化[J].中国科学(生命科学),2005,35(3):220-230.[ZHANG Minzhao,KANG Le.Genetic divergence among geographical populations of the migratory locust in China[J].Scientia Sinica(Vitae),2005,35(3):220-230.]
[9] 李春选,马恩波,郑先云,等.中国东亚飞蝗四个地理种群遗传结构的比较研究[J].昆虫学报.2004,47(1):73-79.[LI Chunxuan,MA Enbo,ZHEN Xianyun,et al.Genetic structure of four geographic populations of Locusta migratoria manilensis in China[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica.2004,47(1):73-79.]
[10] 张德兴,闫路娜,康乐,等.对中国飞蝗种下阶元划分和历史演化过程的几点看法[J].动物学报,2003,49(5):125-131.[ZHANG Dexing,YAN Luna,KANG Le,et al.Some unorthodox views on the classification and evolution of the migratory locusts in China prompted by molecular population genetic study[J].Acta Zoologica Sinica,2003,49(5):125-131.]
[11] 朱耿平,刘晨,李敏,等.基于Maxent和GARP模型的日本双棘长蠹在中国的潜在地理分布分析[J].昆虫学报,2014,57(5):581-586.[ZHU Gengping,LIU Chen,LI Min,et al.Potential geographical distribution of Sinoxylon japonicum (Coleoptera:Bostrichidae) in China based on Maxent and GARP models[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica,2014,57(5):581-586.]
[12] MA J W,HAN X Z,Hasibagan,et al.Monitoring East Asian migratory locust plagues using remote sensing data and field investigations[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2005,26:629-634.
[13] 康乐,李鸿昌,陈永林.中国散居型飞蝗地理种群数量性状变异的分析[J].昆虫学报,1989,32(4):418-426.[KANG Le,LI Hongchang,CHEN Yonglin.Analysis of numerical character variations of geographical populations of Locusta migratoria phase solitaria in China[J].Acta Entomol Sinica,1989,32(4):418-426.]
[14] KANG L,CHEN Y L.The analysis of numerical taxonomy to the interrelationship among different geographic populations of Locusta migratoria (L.) phase solitaria (Orthoptera:Acrididae)[J].Sinozoologia,1991,8:71-82.
[15] SIVANPILLAI R,LATCHININSKY A V.Mapping locust habitats in the Amudarya River delta,Uzbekistan,using multi-temporal MODIS imagery[J].Environmental Management,2007,39(6):876-886.
[16] MEYNARD C N,GAY P E,LECOQ M,et al.Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods:Subspecies’ niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change[J].Global Change Biology,2017,23(11):4739-4749.
[17] LAZAR M,ALIOU D,YANG J T,et al.Location and characterization of breeding sites of solitary desert locust using satellite images Landsat 7 ETM+ and Terra MODIS[J].Advances in Entomology,2015,3(1):6-15.
[18] LECOQ M.Recent progress in desert and migratory locust management in Africa:Are preventative actions possible?[J].Journal of Orthoptera Research,2001,10(2):277-291.
[19] MAGOR J I,LECOQ M,HUNTER D M.Preventive control and desert locust plagues[J].Crop Protection,2008,27(12):1527-1533.
[20] PIOU C,LEBOURGEOIS V,BENAHI A S,et al.Coupling historical prospection data and a remotely-sensed vegetation index for the preventative control of desert locusts[J].Basic and Applied Ecology,2013,14(7):593-604.
[21] LECOQ M.Desert locust threat to agricultural development and food security and FAO/International role in its control[J].Arab Journal of Plant Protection,2003,21(2):188-193.
[22] STEVEN J P,ROBERT P A,ROBERT E S.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J].Ecological Modeling,190(3-4):231-259,2006.
[23] STEVEN J P,MIROSLAV D.Modeling of species distributions with MaxEnt:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[24] 张杰,敖子强,吴永明,等.中华猕猴桃(Actinidia chinensis)在中国的适生性及其潜在地理分布模拟预测[J].热带地理,2017,37(2):218-225.[ZHANG Jie,AO Ziqiang,WU Yongming,et al.Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China based on Maximum Entropy Niche Model and ArcGIS[J].Tropical Geography,2017,37(2):218-225.]
[25] HIJMANS R J,CAMERON S E,PARRA J L,et al.Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(15):1965-1978.
[26] SWORD G A,LECOQ M,SIMPSON S J.Phase polyphenism and preventative locust management[J].Journal of Insect Physiology,2010,56(8):949-957.