教育公平推动经济增长?——来自美国1978—2015年数据的经验分析
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摘要
基于美国1978—2015年的数据,通过生产函数模型和多变量VAR模型,对美国教育公平与经济增长之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明:美国受高等教育人口比例迅速提高,教育普及化程度高,教育基尼系数呈现下降趋势;教育基尼系数与经济增长之间呈现"倒U型"结构,短期看教育公平对经济增长具有反向作用,但长期来看,教育公平对经济增长具有显著的积极作用;教育公平与经济增长之间并不存在双向因果关系,教育公平对经济增长具有显著的格兰杰因果关系,但经济增长对教育公平没有显著的格兰杰因果关系。美国社会制度性障碍导致收入差距进一步拉大,阻滞了社会流动,进而抑制了经济增长。美国的经验研究结果对中国推进教育公平具有一定的借鉴意义。
Based on the U.S.census data and the World Bank data during 1978—2015and using the method of production function model and multivariate VAR model,this paper gives an evidence between education and economic growth in the U.S..The results show that:firstly,the rate of population attained higher education is increasing with a rapid speed,the degree of universalization of education is high and education gini coefficient showed a trend of decline.Secondly,the relationship between education gini coefficient and economic growth assumed a "inverted U"shape.In the short term,education equity have reverse effect on economic growth;while in the long run,education equity has significant positive effects on economic growth.Thirdly,there is a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and education equity,that is education equity has a significant Granger causality to the economic growth.The possible reason is that education equity may promote the social mobility and then promote the long-term economic growth stability.But economic growthhasnosignificantGrangercausalitytotheeducationequity.The possible reason is that the unreasonable social institutional barriers lead to further income gap and block the social mobility.The empirical research results from the U.S.may have a certain reference for China to promote education equity and carry out more reasonable policies.
Based on the U.S.census data and the World Bank data during 1978—2015and using the method of production function model and multivariate VAR model,this paper gives an evidence between education and economic growth in the U.S..The results show that:firstly,the rate of population attained higher education is increasing with a rapid speed,the degree of universalization of education is high and education gini coefficient showed a trend of decline.Secondly,the relationship between education gini coefficient and economic growth assumed a "inverted U"shape.In the short term,education equity have reverse effect on economic growth;while in the long run,education equity has significant positive effects on economic growth.Thirdly,there is a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and education equity,that is education equity has a significant Granger causality to the economic growth.The possible reason is that education equity may promote the social mobility and then promote the long-term economic growth stability.But economic growthhasnosignificantGrangercausalitytotheeducationequity.The possible reason is that the unreasonable social institutional barriers lead to further income gap and block the social mobility.The empirical research results from the U.S.may have a certain reference for China to promote education equity and carry out more reasonable policies.
引文
柏拉图,2010:《理想国》,顾寿观译,长沙:岳麓书社。
陈中原,2000:《教育平等的经济效益---读美国兰德公司报告札记》,中国教育报,2000年9月24日。
大卫·李嘉图,2014:《经济学及税赋之原理》,郭大力、王亚南译,上海:三联书店。
甘永涛,2012:《〈改革蓝图〉:促进美国教育公平的政策》,《中国民族教育》第2期。
罗尔斯,2009:《正义论》,何怀宏、何包钢、廖申白译,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
世界银行,2006:《2006年世界发展报告:公平与发展》,北京:清华大学出版社。
舒尔茨,1982:《教育的经济价值》,曹延亭译,长春:吉林人民出版社。
托尔斯顿·胡森,1989:《平等---学校和社会政策的目标》著,张人杰译,上海:华东师范大学出版社。
薛二勇,方展画,2007:《美国教育公平发展中的补偿性政策---以〈初等与中等教育法〉颁布四十余年的政策实践为例》,《教育发展研究》2007年第19期。
亚当·斯密,2008:《国民财富的性质和原因》,郭大力、王亚南译,北京:商务印书馆。姚益龙,林相立,2005:《教育对经济增长贡献的国际比较:基于多变量VAR方法的经验研究》,《管理世界》第10期。
约翰·凯恩斯,2009:《就业、利息与货币通论》,陆梦龙译,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
Barro,R.J.,2000,“Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries”,Journal of Economic Growth,5(1):5-32.
Benhabib,J.and M.Spiegel,1994,“The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development:Evidence from Aggregate Cross-country Data”,Journal of Monetary Economics,43(2):143-174.
Hall,S.G.and M.Wickens,1993,“Causality in Integrated Systems”,Discussion Paper,No.DP2793,Centre for Economic Forecasting,London Business School.
Hall,S.G.and A.Milne,1994,“The Relevance of P-star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy”,The Economic Journal,104(5):597-604.
Johansen,S.,1988,“Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors”,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,43(12):231-254.
Kuznets,S.,1955,“Economic Growth and Income Inequality”,The American Economic Review,45(1):1-28.
Lucas,R.E.,1998,“On the Mechanics of Economic Development”,Journal of Monetary Economics,22(3):3-42.
Trow,M.,1973,“Problems in the Transition from Elite to Mass Higher Education”,Conference on Future Structures of Post-Secondary Education,Paris,26th~29thJune 1973.
Osterwald-Lenum,M.,1992,“A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the ML Cointegration Rank Test Statistics”,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,54(2):461-472.
Perotti,R.,1996,“Growth,Income Distribution,and Democracy:What the Data Say”,Journal of Economic Growth,1(2):149-187.
Persson,T.and G.Tabellini,1994,“Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?”,The AmericanEconomic Review,84(1):600-621.
Pesaran,M.H.and Y.Shin,1994,“Long-run Structural Modelling”,Mimeo,University of Cambridge.
Pritchett,L.,1997,“Where has all the Education Gone?”,Policy Research Working Paper,The World Bank,Washington D.C.
Psacharopoulos,G.and A.M.Arriagada,1986,“The Educational Attainment of the Labor Force:An International Comparison”,The World Bank.
Romer,P.M.,1990,“Endogenous Technological Change”,Journal of Political Economy,98(5):71-102.
Solow,R.M.,1956,“A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,70(2):65-94.
Thomas,V.,et.al.,2003,“Measuring Education Inequality:Gini Coefficients ofEducation for 140 Countries,1960-2000”,Journal of Educational Planning andAdministration,17(1):5-33.
Toda,H.Y.and C.B.Phillips,1993,“Vector Auto Regression and Causality”,Econometrica,61(6):1367-1393.
Topel,R.,1999,“Labor Markets and Economic Growth,”In O.Ashenfelter&D.Card(eds),Handbook of Labor Economics,Amsterdam:North Holland.
Wickens,R.W.,1996,“Interpreting Cointegrating Vectors and Common StochasticTrends”,Journal of Econometrics,74(6):255-271.
(1)根据社会流动理论,教育可以被看成给予那些出身贫寒的孩子以最初的人力资本投资,从而给他们在社会流动渠道中以最初的推动并使他们能够升迁到更加有利的位置的一个手段。所以,教育对经济发展的贡献不仅仅在于它直接传播知识,而且还在于教育是对社会流动的重要保障和承诺。根据人力资本理论,人力资本提升主要通过在学校接受教育和“干中学”的积累。一般认为通过在学校接受正规教育是获得人力资本提升的主要方式,所以人力资本通过教育变量间接度量(Asteriou and Agiomirgianakis,2001)。
(1)王艾青和安立仁(2004)认为平均受教育年限是人力资本衡量的最佳指标。
(2)该方法首先提出了臧日红《经济学》中基尼系数的计算公式:G=1+∑YiPi-2∑(∑Pi)Yi,其中G代表基尼系数,Yi代表人口的收入占总收入的比例,Pi代表第i组的人口占总人口的比例,∑Pi表示表示累计到第i组的人口累计数。然后提出一种更n-1加简易的基尼系数计算公式:1G=1-2中n为组数,Wi为从第1组n(∑Wi+1),其i=1到第i组人口累计收入占全部人口总收入的百分比。参见张建华,2007:《一种简便易用的基尼系数计算方法》,《山西农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第3期。
(1)熊俊(2005)认为,索洛模型非常清晰而又直接地阐明了“经济增长直接来源于要素投入增长和全要素生产率提高”这一思想;另一方面,索洛模型赖以建立的假设条件过于严峻,这使得该模型难以容纳新增长理论的合理观点,同时对经济增长事实的解释力也因此减弱,这意味着该模型有必要修改和扩展,因而提出索罗模型的扩展模型。经济增长的直接来源总是来自两部分,一部分是物质资本、简单劳动力、知识资本和人力资本等四种要素投入的增长;另一部分是四种要素综合生产率的增长。参见熊俊,2005:《经济增长因素分析模型:对索罗模型的一个扩展》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第8期。
陈中原,2000:《教育平等的经济效益---读美国兰德公司报告札记》,中国教育报,2000年9月24日。
大卫·李嘉图,2014:《经济学及税赋之原理》,郭大力、王亚南译,上海:三联书店。
甘永涛,2012:《〈改革蓝图〉:促进美国教育公平的政策》,《中国民族教育》第2期。
罗尔斯,2009:《正义论》,何怀宏、何包钢、廖申白译,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
世界银行,2006:《2006年世界发展报告:公平与发展》,北京:清华大学出版社。
舒尔茨,1982:《教育的经济价值》,曹延亭译,长春:吉林人民出版社。
托尔斯顿·胡森,1989:《平等---学校和社会政策的目标》著,张人杰译,上海:华东师范大学出版社。
薛二勇,方展画,2007:《美国教育公平发展中的补偿性政策---以〈初等与中等教育法〉颁布四十余年的政策实践为例》,《教育发展研究》2007年第19期。
亚当·斯密,2008:《国民财富的性质和原因》,郭大力、王亚南译,北京:商务印书馆。姚益龙,林相立,2005:《教育对经济增长贡献的国际比较:基于多变量VAR方法的经验研究》,《管理世界》第10期。
约翰·凯恩斯,2009:《就业、利息与货币通论》,陆梦龙译,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
Barro,R.J.,2000,“Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries”,Journal of Economic Growth,5(1):5-32.
Benhabib,J.and M.Spiegel,1994,“The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development:Evidence from Aggregate Cross-country Data”,Journal of Monetary Economics,43(2):143-174.
Hall,S.G.and M.Wickens,1993,“Causality in Integrated Systems”,Discussion Paper,No.DP2793,Centre for Economic Forecasting,London Business School.
Hall,S.G.and A.Milne,1994,“The Relevance of P-star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy”,The Economic Journal,104(5):597-604.
Johansen,S.,1988,“Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors”,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,43(12):231-254.
Kuznets,S.,1955,“Economic Growth and Income Inequality”,The American Economic Review,45(1):1-28.
Lucas,R.E.,1998,“On the Mechanics of Economic Development”,Journal of Monetary Economics,22(3):3-42.
Trow,M.,1973,“Problems in the Transition from Elite to Mass Higher Education”,Conference on Future Structures of Post-Secondary Education,Paris,26th~29thJune 1973.
Osterwald-Lenum,M.,1992,“A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the ML Cointegration Rank Test Statistics”,Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,54(2):461-472.
Perotti,R.,1996,“Growth,Income Distribution,and Democracy:What the Data Say”,Journal of Economic Growth,1(2):149-187.
Persson,T.and G.Tabellini,1994,“Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?”,The AmericanEconomic Review,84(1):600-621.
Pesaran,M.H.and Y.Shin,1994,“Long-run Structural Modelling”,Mimeo,University of Cambridge.
Pritchett,L.,1997,“Where has all the Education Gone?”,Policy Research Working Paper,The World Bank,Washington D.C.
Psacharopoulos,G.and A.M.Arriagada,1986,“The Educational Attainment of the Labor Force:An International Comparison”,The World Bank.
Romer,P.M.,1990,“Endogenous Technological Change”,Journal of Political Economy,98(5):71-102.
Solow,R.M.,1956,“A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,70(2):65-94.
Thomas,V.,et.al.,2003,“Measuring Education Inequality:Gini Coefficients ofEducation for 140 Countries,1960-2000”,Journal of Educational Planning andAdministration,17(1):5-33.
Toda,H.Y.and C.B.Phillips,1993,“Vector Auto Regression and Causality”,Econometrica,61(6):1367-1393.
Topel,R.,1999,“Labor Markets and Economic Growth,”In O.Ashenfelter&D.Card(eds),Handbook of Labor Economics,Amsterdam:North Holland.
Wickens,R.W.,1996,“Interpreting Cointegrating Vectors and Common StochasticTrends”,Journal of Econometrics,74(6):255-271.
(1)根据社会流动理论,教育可以被看成给予那些出身贫寒的孩子以最初的人力资本投资,从而给他们在社会流动渠道中以最初的推动并使他们能够升迁到更加有利的位置的一个手段。所以,教育对经济发展的贡献不仅仅在于它直接传播知识,而且还在于教育是对社会流动的重要保障和承诺。根据人力资本理论,人力资本提升主要通过在学校接受教育和“干中学”的积累。一般认为通过在学校接受正规教育是获得人力资本提升的主要方式,所以人力资本通过教育变量间接度量(Asteriou and Agiomirgianakis,2001)。
(1)王艾青和安立仁(2004)认为平均受教育年限是人力资本衡量的最佳指标。
(2)该方法首先提出了臧日红《经济学》中基尼系数的计算公式:G=1+∑YiPi-2∑(∑Pi)Yi,其中G代表基尼系数,Yi代表人口的收入占总收入的比例,Pi代表第i组的人口占总人口的比例,∑Pi表示表示累计到第i组的人口累计数。然后提出一种更n-1加简易的基尼系数计算公式:1G=1-2中n为组数,Wi为从第1组n(∑Wi+1),其i=1到第i组人口累计收入占全部人口总收入的百分比。参见张建华,2007:《一种简便易用的基尼系数计算方法》,《山西农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第3期。
(1)熊俊(2005)认为,索洛模型非常清晰而又直接地阐明了“经济增长直接来源于要素投入增长和全要素生产率提高”这一思想;另一方面,索洛模型赖以建立的假设条件过于严峻,这使得该模型难以容纳新增长理论的合理观点,同时对经济增长事实的解释力也因此减弱,这意味着该模型有必要修改和扩展,因而提出索罗模型的扩展模型。经济增长的直接来源总是来自两部分,一部分是物质资本、简单劳动力、知识资本和人力资本等四种要素投入的增长;另一部分是四种要素综合生产率的增长。参见熊俊,2005:《经济增长因素分析模型:对索罗模型的一个扩展》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第8期。