经济新常态下区域物流产业与产业结构互动关系研究——以广东省2000-2017年面板数据为例
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摘要
为研究经济新常态下物流产业发展与产业结构之间的关系,以广东省为例,选取2000-2017年间的物流产业总产值、物流产业固定投资、货运周转量以及产业结构优化升级为研究指标,建立向量自回归VAR模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明,物流产业与区域产业结构优化升级之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且具有相互促进的关系。在经济新常态背景下大力发展物流产业,加大物流固定资产投资,有利于产业结构优化升级。
In order to study the relationship between the development of the logistics industry and the industrial structure under the new normal economy, taking Guangdong Province as an example, the total output value of the logistics industry, fixed investment in the logistics industry, freight turnover, and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure during the period 2000-2017 were selected as research indicators. The VAR model of vector autoregression was established for empirical study. The research results show that there is a long-term stable and balanced relationship between logistics industry and regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and it has a mutually reinforcing relationship. Under the background of the "new normal" economy, the logistics industry is vigorously developed, and the increase of logistics fixed assets investment is conducive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.
In order to study the relationship between the development of the logistics industry and the industrial structure under the new normal economy, taking Guangdong Province as an example, the total output value of the logistics industry, fixed investment in the logistics industry, freight turnover, and the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure during the period 2000-2017 were selected as research indicators. The VAR model of vector autoregression was established for empirical study. The research results show that there is a long-term stable and balanced relationship between logistics industry and regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and it has a mutually reinforcing relationship. Under the background of the "new normal" economy, the logistics industry is vigorously developed, and the increase of logistics fixed assets investment is conducive to the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.
引文
[1]孙玉妮,伍艳艳,张实桐.中国物流业与经济增长关系的实证分析:基于投入产出模型和VAR模型[J].中国物价2010(6):3-7.
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[6]王文铭,殷凤朝,满影.物流业发展与区域经济及产业结构调整的关联分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2012,38(12):1217-1220.
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[12]广东省统计信息网.广东省统计年鉴2011-2018年[M].http://www.gdstats.gov.cn/.
[2]贾海成,袁昕昕.江苏省物流与产业结构适应性研究:基于DEA和VAR的实证分析[J].物流技术,2012,31(11):290-293.
[3]康耀武,秦烨.基于VAR模型的物流经济对国民经济增效影响力研究[J].物流技术,2013(6):131-134.
[4]乐小兵.现代物流与产业结构升级关联机制研究[J].物流技术,2013(4):198-200.
[5]宋杨,高宏伟.物流产业与三大产业联动发展关系研究:以北京市为例[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2013,12(3):1-5.
[6]王文铭,殷凤朝,满影.物流业发展与区域经济及产业结构调整的关联分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2012,38(12):1217-1220.
[7]刘妤,顾正刚.新常态下区域物流与区域经济互动关系研究:基于西藏1995-2014年面板数据[J].西藏大学学报(社会科学版),2017(1):144-149.
[8]王鑫,郭志达.新常态下辽宁省物流业与区域经济协调发展研究[J].商场现代化,2017(18):58-59.
[9]广东省统计局,国家统计局广东调查总队.2018年广东国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].http://www.gdstats.gov.cn/tjzl/tjgb/201703/t20170308_358320.html.2018.03.06.
[10]周启良,庄宗明.FDI 与中国产业结构优化文献综述[J].云南财经大学学报(社会科学版),2011,26(3):11-15.
[11]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16.
[12]广东省统计信息网.广东省统计年鉴2011-2018年[M].http://www.gdstats.gov.cn/.