养殖户畜禽废弃物资源化处理方式及影响因素研究
|
摘要
畜禽养殖环境污染问题,始终是畜牧业持续稳定健康发展面临的首要问题。为了解养殖户畜禽废弃物的处理现状与行为特点,分析影响养殖户废弃物处理方式选择的主要原因,本文基于对山东省6市30县(区)养殖户的实地调研数据,运用UTAUT理论分析框架与无序多分类Logit模型,对养殖户畜禽废弃物的处理方式及影响因素进行了系统研究。结果表明:①经济绩效期望、主观规范、养殖劳动人口、养殖数量对养殖户选择直接还田、堆肥发酵、沼气发酵以及鲜装出售4种方式处理畜禽废弃物均有显著影响。②家庭年收入正向影响养殖户选择直接还田的方式处理畜禽废弃物。③养殖户通过堆肥发酵方式处理畜禽废弃物受其知识储备、社会因素、养殖规模的正向影响以及性别与婚姻状况的负向影响。④利用沼气发酵方式处理畜禽废弃物受到养殖户年龄的负向影响以及养殖收入比例与环境便利性的正向影响。⑤对直接还田、堆肥发酵、沼气发酵、鲜装出售方式处理畜禽废弃物影响最大的因素依次为主观规范、养殖规模、经济绩效期望与养殖劳动人口。据此,为促进养殖户畜禽废弃物的资源化处理,推动养殖产业的健康稳定发展,本研究提出以下政策建议:①强化畜禽废弃物资源化处理的宣传推广,提升养殖户相关理解与认知水平。②制定合理的畜禽废弃物资源化处理补贴政策,增加政策的针对性与有效激励性。③加强畜禽废弃物资源化处理的技术研究与积极推广,提高讲座或培训内容的实用性。④完善畜禽粪污治理的有关政策与法律法规,增强法律法规的权威性与政策的可操作性。
Environmental pollution of raising livestock and poultry has always been the primary problem that the governments have to face to study the sustainable and stable development of animal husbandry. In order to understand the current status and characteristics of livestock and poultry farmers 'treatment behaviors towards livestock and poultry waste,and analyze the main reasons for their selection method of waste treatment,based on the field research data of livestock and poultry farmers in 30 counties( districts) of 6 cities in Shandong Province,this paper systematically studies the disposal methods and influencing factors of livestock and poultry farmers' behaviors towards livestock and poultry waste by using UTAUT theoretical analysis framework and disordered multi-class Logit model. The results show that: ①The variables of economic performance expectation,subjective norm,farming population and number of poultry or livestock have significant effects on livestock and poultry farmers' waste recycling methods including farmers' choice of direct returning to fields,composting fermentation,biogas fermentation,and fresh-packed sale. ②Annual household income has positive effects on the farmers' disposal method of ‘direct return'. ③ Livestock and poultry farmers' disposal method of compost fermentation is positively affected by their knowledge reserves,social factors and farming scale,and negatively affected by their gender and marital status. ④Livestock and poultry farmers' disposal method of‘biogas fermentation'is negatively affected by their age,and positively affected by their farming income ratio and environmental convenience. ⑤The most important factors affecting livestock and poultry farmers' disposal methods of direct return,compost fermentation,biogas fermentation,fresh-packed sale,in sequence are subjective norms,farming scale,economic performance expectation and farming population. Therefore,in order to promote livestock and poultry farmers ' resource utilization behaviors of livestock and poultry waste, this study proposes following policy recommendations: ① Strengthen the promotion and extension of recycling utilization of livestock and poultry waste,and raise the understanding and awareness level of farmers. ② Formulate a reasonable subsidy policy for the recycling utilization of livestock and poultry waste,increase the targeted and effective incentives for the policy. ③Strengthen the technical research and active promotion of the resource recycling utilization of livestock and poultry waste,and improve the practicality of the lecture or training content. ④Improve relevant policies and laws on livestock and poultry manure management,and enhance the authority of laws and regulations and the operability of policies.
Environmental pollution of raising livestock and poultry has always been the primary problem that the governments have to face to study the sustainable and stable development of animal husbandry. In order to understand the current status and characteristics of livestock and poultry farmers 'treatment behaviors towards livestock and poultry waste,and analyze the main reasons for their selection method of waste treatment,based on the field research data of livestock and poultry farmers in 30 counties( districts) of 6 cities in Shandong Province,this paper systematically studies the disposal methods and influencing factors of livestock and poultry farmers' behaviors towards livestock and poultry waste by using UTAUT theoretical analysis framework and disordered multi-class Logit model. The results show that: ①The variables of economic performance expectation,subjective norm,farming population and number of poultry or livestock have significant effects on livestock and poultry farmers' waste recycling methods including farmers' choice of direct returning to fields,composting fermentation,biogas fermentation,and fresh-packed sale. ②Annual household income has positive effects on the farmers' disposal method of ‘direct return'. ③ Livestock and poultry farmers' disposal method of compost fermentation is positively affected by their knowledge reserves,social factors and farming scale,and negatively affected by their gender and marital status. ④Livestock and poultry farmers' disposal method of‘biogas fermentation'is negatively affected by their age,and positively affected by their farming income ratio and environmental convenience. ⑤The most important factors affecting livestock and poultry farmers' disposal methods of direct return,compost fermentation,biogas fermentation,fresh-packed sale,in sequence are subjective norms,farming scale,economic performance expectation and farming population. Therefore,in order to promote livestock and poultry farmers ' resource utilization behaviors of livestock and poultry waste, this study proposes following policy recommendations: ① Strengthen the promotion and extension of recycling utilization of livestock and poultry waste,and raise the understanding and awareness level of farmers. ② Formulate a reasonable subsidy policy for the recycling utilization of livestock and poultry waste,increase the targeted and effective incentives for the policy. ③Strengthen the technical research and active promotion of the resource recycling utilization of livestock and poultry waste,and improve the practicality of the lecture or training content. ④Improve relevant policies and laws on livestock and poultry manure management,and enhance the authority of laws and regulations and the operability of policies.
引文
[1]EDWARDS A C,WITHERS P J A.Soil phosphorus management and water quality:a UK perspective[J].Soil use&management,2010,14(4):124-130.
[2]IHEKE O R.Analysis of livestock waste management practices among rural farmers in Abia State[J].International journal of agricultural science research&technology,2016,6(1):21-27.
[3]KARADURMUS E,CESMECI M,YUCEER M,et al.An artificial neural network model for the effects of chicken manure on ground water[J].Applied soft computing,2012,12(1):494-497.
[4]FRAISON J B,GUILPAIN P,SCHIFFMANN A,et al.Pulmonary cryptococcosis in a patient with Crohn’s disease treated with prednisone,azathioprine and adalimumab:exposure to chicken manure as a source of contamination[J].Journal of crohns&colitis,2013,7(1):e11-e14.
[5]MARANON E,CASTRILLON L,QUIROGA G,et al.Co-digestion of cattle manure with food waste and sludge to increase biogas production[J].Waste management,2012,32(10):1821-1825.
[6]胡清秀,张瑞颖.菌业循环模式促进农业废弃物资源的高效利用[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(6):113-119.
[7]HE K,ZHANG J,FENG J,et al.The impact of social capital on farmers’willingness to reuse agricultural waste for sustainable development[J].Sustainable development,2016,24(2):101-108.
[8]ZHENG C,BLUEMLING B,LIU Y,et al.Managing manure from China’s pigs and poultry:the influence of ecological rationality[J].Ambio,2014,43(5):661-672.
[9]MATERECHERA S A.Utilization and management practices of animal manure for replenishing soil fertility among smallscale crop farmers in semi-arid farming districts of the North West Province,South Africa[J].Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems,2010,87(3):415-428.
[10]SMITH K A,BREWER A J,DAUVEN A,et al.A survey of the production and use of animal manures in England and Wales.I.Pig manure[J].Soil use&management,2010,16(2):124-132.
[11]WAITHAKA M M,THORNTON P K,SHEPHERD K D,et al.Factors affecting the use of fertilizers and manure by smallholders:the case of Vihiga,Western Kenya[J].Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems,2007,78(3):211-224.
[12]KASSIE M,JALETA M,SHIFERAW B,et al.Adoption of interrelated sustainable agricultural practices in smallholder systems:evidence from rural Tanzania[J].Technological forecasting&social change,2013,80(3):525-540.
[13]POUDEL D,JOHNSEN F H.Valuation of crop genetic resources in Kaski,Nepal:farmers’willingness to pay for rice landraces conservation[J].Journal of environmental management,2009,90(1):483-491.
[14]JOYCE O,JEFFREY G,KRISHNA P,et al.Awareness of and application to the environmental quality incentives program by cowcalf producers[J].Journal of agricultural&applied economics,2008,40(1):357-368.
[15]AFROZ R,HANAKI K,HASEGAWA-KURISU K.Willingness to pay for waste management improvement in Dhaka City,Bangladesh[J].Journal of environmental management,2009,90(1):492-503.
[16]SCHULTZ P W,ZELEZNY L.Values as predictors of environmental attitudes:evidence for consistency across 14 countries[J].Journal of environmental psychology,1999,19(3):255-265.
[17]BARR S.Strategies for sustainability:citizens and responsible environmental behaviour[J].Area,2003,35(3):227-240.
[18]宾幕容,文孔亮,周发明.农户畜禽废弃物利用技术采纳意愿及其影响因素---基于湖南462个农户的调研[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(4):37-43.
[19]CATELO M A O,DORADO M A,AGBISIT E,et al.Living with livestock:dealing with pig waste in the philippines[C].Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia(EEPSEA),2001.
[20]KIM J,GOLDSMITH P,THOMAS M H.Economic impact and public costs of confined animal feeding operations at the parcel level of Craven County,North Carolina[J].Agriculture&human values,2010,27(1):29-42.
[21]COLMAN D.Ethics and externalities:agricultural stewardship and other behavior:presidential address[J].Journal of agricultural economics,2010,45(3):299-311.
[22]MUELLER W.The effectiveness of recycling policy options:waste diversion or just diversions?[J].Waste management,2013,33(3):508-518.
[23]王晓莉,徐娜,朱秋鹰,等.破窗效应之“破”---基于小农户生猪粪污治理技术使用态度的考察[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2017(18):7-12.
[24]VENKATESH V,MORRIS M G,DAVIS G B,et al.User acceptance of information technology:toward a unified view[J].Mis quarterly,2003,27(3):425-478.
[25]OYE N D,IAHAD N A,RAHIM N A.The history of UTAUTmodel and its impact on ICT acceptance and usage by academicians[J].Education&Information technologies,2014,19(1):251-270.
[26]ESCOBAR-RODRIGUEZ,TOMAS C T,ELENA M L,et al.Factors that influence the perceived advantages and relevance of facebook as a learning tool:an extension of the UTAUT[J].Australasian journal of educational technology,2014,30(2):136-151.
[27]王瑶,米锋.农户参与林木生物质能源产业发展的意愿研究---基于TAM理论的视角[J].林业经济,2015(6):89-93.
[28]高杨,王小楠,西爱琴,等.农户有机农业采纳时机影响因素研究---以山东省325个菜农为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):56-63.
[29]SWEENEY J C,SOUTAR G N.Consumer perceived value:the development of a multiple item scale[J].Journal of retailing,2001,77(2):203-220.
[30]PARASURAMAN A,GREWAL D.The impact of technology on the quality-value-loyalty chain:a research agenda[J].Journal of the academy of marketing science,2000,28(1):168-174.
[31]LOPEZ-NICOLAS C,MOLINA-CASTILLO F J,BOUWMAN H.An assessment of advanced mobile services acceptance:contributions from TAM and diffusion theory models[J].Information&management,2008,45(6):359-364.
[32]LU W C,MA Y X,HOLGER B,et al.Technological options to ameliorate waste treatment of intensive pig production in China:an analysis based on bio-economic model[J].Journal of integrative agriculture,2014,13(2):443-454.
[33]CIMPERMAN M,MAKOVEC B M,TRKMAN P.Analyzing older users’home telehealth services acceptance behavior-applying an Extended UTAUT model[J].International journal of medical informatics,2016,90:22-31.
[34]PEDERSEN P E.Consumer adoption of RFID-enabled services:applying an extended UTAUT model[M].Kluwer Academic Publishers,2016.
[35]SOREBO O,EIKEBROKK T R.Explaining is continuance in environments where usage is mandatory[J].Computers in human behavior,2008,24(5):2357-2371.
[36]CHEN X,LUPI F,LI A,et al.Agent-based modeling of the effects of social norms on enrollment in payments for ecosystem services[J].Ecological modelling,2012,229(4):16-24.
[37]MZOUGHI N.Farmers adoption of integrated crop protection and organic farming:do moral and social concerns matter?[J].Ecological economics,2011,70(8):1536-1545.
[38]HOFFMANN S,SCHLICHT J.The impact of different types of concernment on the consumption of organic food[J].International journal of consumer studies,2013,37(6):625-633.
[39]NYSVEEN H,PEDERSEN P E.Consumer adoption of RFID-enabled services:applying an extended UTAUT model[J].Information systems frontiers,2016,18(2):1-22.
[40]蒋琳莉,张俊飚,颜廷武,等.基于Probit模型的农户农业生产性废弃物弃置行为研究---以湖北省为例[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(5):917-925.
[41]王学婷,何可,张俊飚,等.农户对环境友好型技术的采纳意愿及异质性分析---以湖北省为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2018(6):197-209.
[42]邢美华,张俊飚,黄光体.未参与循环农业农户的环保认知及其影响因素分析---基于晋、鄂两省的调查[J].中国农村经济,2009(4):72-79.
[43]潘丹,孔凡斌.养殖户环境友好型畜禽粪便处理方式选择行为分析---以生猪养殖为例[J].中国农村经济,2015(9):17-29.
[44]GATERSLEBEN B,STEG L,VLEK C.Measurement and determinants of environmentally significant consumer behavior[J].Environment&behavior,2016,34(3):335-362.
[45]BURTON R J.The influence of farmer demographic characteristics on environmental behavior:a review[J].Journal of environmental management,2014,135(4):19-26.
[46]STERN P C.Toward a coherent theory of environmentally significant behavior[J].Journal of social issues,2010,56(3):407-424.
[47]王桂霞,杨义风.生猪养殖户粪污资源化利用及其影响因素分析---基于吉林省的调查和养殖规模比较视角[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(3):13-18.
[48]王娅,窦学诚.河西绿洲灌区农户对循环农业工程的行为响应及其影响因素研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(1):25-30.
[49]陈菲菲,张崇尚,王艺诺,等.规模化生猪养殖粪便处理与成本收益分析[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(9):3455-3463.
[50]冯淑怡,罗小娟,张丽军,等.养殖企业畜禽粪尿处理方式选择、影响因素与适用政策工具分析---以太湖流域上游为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(1):12-18.
[51]LIU X,VEDLITZ A,SHI L.Examining the determinants of public environmental concern:evidence from national public surveys[J].Environmental science&policy,2014,39(5):77-94.
[52]李卫兵,陈妹.收入对居民环境意识的影响:绝对水平和相对地位[J].当代财经,2017(1):16-26.
[2]IHEKE O R.Analysis of livestock waste management practices among rural farmers in Abia State[J].International journal of agricultural science research&technology,2016,6(1):21-27.
[3]KARADURMUS E,CESMECI M,YUCEER M,et al.An artificial neural network model for the effects of chicken manure on ground water[J].Applied soft computing,2012,12(1):494-497.
[4]FRAISON J B,GUILPAIN P,SCHIFFMANN A,et al.Pulmonary cryptococcosis in a patient with Crohn’s disease treated with prednisone,azathioprine and adalimumab:exposure to chicken manure as a source of contamination[J].Journal of crohns&colitis,2013,7(1):e11-e14.
[5]MARANON E,CASTRILLON L,QUIROGA G,et al.Co-digestion of cattle manure with food waste and sludge to increase biogas production[J].Waste management,2012,32(10):1821-1825.
[6]胡清秀,张瑞颖.菌业循环模式促进农业废弃物资源的高效利用[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(6):113-119.
[7]HE K,ZHANG J,FENG J,et al.The impact of social capital on farmers’willingness to reuse agricultural waste for sustainable development[J].Sustainable development,2016,24(2):101-108.
[8]ZHENG C,BLUEMLING B,LIU Y,et al.Managing manure from China’s pigs and poultry:the influence of ecological rationality[J].Ambio,2014,43(5):661-672.
[9]MATERECHERA S A.Utilization and management practices of animal manure for replenishing soil fertility among smallscale crop farmers in semi-arid farming districts of the North West Province,South Africa[J].Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems,2010,87(3):415-428.
[10]SMITH K A,BREWER A J,DAUVEN A,et al.A survey of the production and use of animal manures in England and Wales.I.Pig manure[J].Soil use&management,2010,16(2):124-132.
[11]WAITHAKA M M,THORNTON P K,SHEPHERD K D,et al.Factors affecting the use of fertilizers and manure by smallholders:the case of Vihiga,Western Kenya[J].Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems,2007,78(3):211-224.
[12]KASSIE M,JALETA M,SHIFERAW B,et al.Adoption of interrelated sustainable agricultural practices in smallholder systems:evidence from rural Tanzania[J].Technological forecasting&social change,2013,80(3):525-540.
[13]POUDEL D,JOHNSEN F H.Valuation of crop genetic resources in Kaski,Nepal:farmers’willingness to pay for rice landraces conservation[J].Journal of environmental management,2009,90(1):483-491.
[14]JOYCE O,JEFFREY G,KRISHNA P,et al.Awareness of and application to the environmental quality incentives program by cowcalf producers[J].Journal of agricultural&applied economics,2008,40(1):357-368.
[15]AFROZ R,HANAKI K,HASEGAWA-KURISU K.Willingness to pay for waste management improvement in Dhaka City,Bangladesh[J].Journal of environmental management,2009,90(1):492-503.
[16]SCHULTZ P W,ZELEZNY L.Values as predictors of environmental attitudes:evidence for consistency across 14 countries[J].Journal of environmental psychology,1999,19(3):255-265.
[17]BARR S.Strategies for sustainability:citizens and responsible environmental behaviour[J].Area,2003,35(3):227-240.
[18]宾幕容,文孔亮,周发明.农户畜禽废弃物利用技术采纳意愿及其影响因素---基于湖南462个农户的调研[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(4):37-43.
[19]CATELO M A O,DORADO M A,AGBISIT E,et al.Living with livestock:dealing with pig waste in the philippines[C].Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia(EEPSEA),2001.
[20]KIM J,GOLDSMITH P,THOMAS M H.Economic impact and public costs of confined animal feeding operations at the parcel level of Craven County,North Carolina[J].Agriculture&human values,2010,27(1):29-42.
[21]COLMAN D.Ethics and externalities:agricultural stewardship and other behavior:presidential address[J].Journal of agricultural economics,2010,45(3):299-311.
[22]MUELLER W.The effectiveness of recycling policy options:waste diversion or just diversions?[J].Waste management,2013,33(3):508-518.
[23]王晓莉,徐娜,朱秋鹰,等.破窗效应之“破”---基于小农户生猪粪污治理技术使用态度的考察[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2017(18):7-12.
[24]VENKATESH V,MORRIS M G,DAVIS G B,et al.User acceptance of information technology:toward a unified view[J].Mis quarterly,2003,27(3):425-478.
[25]OYE N D,IAHAD N A,RAHIM N A.The history of UTAUTmodel and its impact on ICT acceptance and usage by academicians[J].Education&Information technologies,2014,19(1):251-270.
[26]ESCOBAR-RODRIGUEZ,TOMAS C T,ELENA M L,et al.Factors that influence the perceived advantages and relevance of facebook as a learning tool:an extension of the UTAUT[J].Australasian journal of educational technology,2014,30(2):136-151.
[27]王瑶,米锋.农户参与林木生物质能源产业发展的意愿研究---基于TAM理论的视角[J].林业经济,2015(6):89-93.
[28]高杨,王小楠,西爱琴,等.农户有机农业采纳时机影响因素研究---以山东省325个菜农为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2016(1):56-63.
[29]SWEENEY J C,SOUTAR G N.Consumer perceived value:the development of a multiple item scale[J].Journal of retailing,2001,77(2):203-220.
[30]PARASURAMAN A,GREWAL D.The impact of technology on the quality-value-loyalty chain:a research agenda[J].Journal of the academy of marketing science,2000,28(1):168-174.
[31]LOPEZ-NICOLAS C,MOLINA-CASTILLO F J,BOUWMAN H.An assessment of advanced mobile services acceptance:contributions from TAM and diffusion theory models[J].Information&management,2008,45(6):359-364.
[32]LU W C,MA Y X,HOLGER B,et al.Technological options to ameliorate waste treatment of intensive pig production in China:an analysis based on bio-economic model[J].Journal of integrative agriculture,2014,13(2):443-454.
[33]CIMPERMAN M,MAKOVEC B M,TRKMAN P.Analyzing older users’home telehealth services acceptance behavior-applying an Extended UTAUT model[J].International journal of medical informatics,2016,90:22-31.
[34]PEDERSEN P E.Consumer adoption of RFID-enabled services:applying an extended UTAUT model[M].Kluwer Academic Publishers,2016.
[35]SOREBO O,EIKEBROKK T R.Explaining is continuance in environments where usage is mandatory[J].Computers in human behavior,2008,24(5):2357-2371.
[36]CHEN X,LUPI F,LI A,et al.Agent-based modeling of the effects of social norms on enrollment in payments for ecosystem services[J].Ecological modelling,2012,229(4):16-24.
[37]MZOUGHI N.Farmers adoption of integrated crop protection and organic farming:do moral and social concerns matter?[J].Ecological economics,2011,70(8):1536-1545.
[38]HOFFMANN S,SCHLICHT J.The impact of different types of concernment on the consumption of organic food[J].International journal of consumer studies,2013,37(6):625-633.
[39]NYSVEEN H,PEDERSEN P E.Consumer adoption of RFID-enabled services:applying an extended UTAUT model[J].Information systems frontiers,2016,18(2):1-22.
[40]蒋琳莉,张俊飚,颜廷武,等.基于Probit模型的农户农业生产性废弃物弃置行为研究---以湖北省为例[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(5):917-925.
[41]王学婷,何可,张俊飚,等.农户对环境友好型技术的采纳意愿及异质性分析---以湖北省为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2018(6):197-209.
[42]邢美华,张俊飚,黄光体.未参与循环农业农户的环保认知及其影响因素分析---基于晋、鄂两省的调查[J].中国农村经济,2009(4):72-79.
[43]潘丹,孔凡斌.养殖户环境友好型畜禽粪便处理方式选择行为分析---以生猪养殖为例[J].中国农村经济,2015(9):17-29.
[44]GATERSLEBEN B,STEG L,VLEK C.Measurement and determinants of environmentally significant consumer behavior[J].Environment&behavior,2016,34(3):335-362.
[45]BURTON R J.The influence of farmer demographic characteristics on environmental behavior:a review[J].Journal of environmental management,2014,135(4):19-26.
[46]STERN P C.Toward a coherent theory of environmentally significant behavior[J].Journal of social issues,2010,56(3):407-424.
[47]王桂霞,杨义风.生猪养殖户粪污资源化利用及其影响因素分析---基于吉林省的调查和养殖规模比较视角[J].湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(3):13-18.
[48]王娅,窦学诚.河西绿洲灌区农户对循环农业工程的行为响应及其影响因素研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(1):25-30.
[49]陈菲菲,张崇尚,王艺诺,等.规模化生猪养殖粪便处理与成本收益分析[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(9):3455-3463.
[50]冯淑怡,罗小娟,张丽军,等.养殖企业畜禽粪尿处理方式选择、影响因素与适用政策工具分析---以太湖流域上游为例[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(1):12-18.
[51]LIU X,VEDLITZ A,SHI L.Examining the determinants of public environmental concern:evidence from national public surveys[J].Environmental science&policy,2014,39(5):77-94.
[52]李卫兵,陈妹.收入对居民环境意识的影响:绝对水平和相对地位[J].当代财经,2017(1):16-26.