基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的含微网配电系统可靠性评估
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摘要
依据贝叶斯网络的逻辑关系进行推理,针对微网内分布式电源输出功率的不确定性以及负荷的时变特性,采用分时段方法求解含微网配电系统的可靠性指标。在微网孤岛运行模式下,考虑分布式电源与储能元件的不同逻辑组合状态,设置等值功率(电源)结点,根据潮流计算,建立了微网内电源–负荷结点的"动态–供给"逻辑关系模型。运用贝叶斯网络时序模拟推理算法,对改进的RBTS Bus6-F4系统进行可靠性评估。借助贝叶斯网络因果推理可分析任意元件可靠性参数对系统可靠性指标的影响大小,利用贝叶斯网络诊断推理可分别求解出假设整体配电系统故障、微网系统故障、微网中重要负荷及不重要负荷故障时各元件故障的条件概率,进而找出影响系统或重要负荷点供电可靠性的关键因素,并识别系统可靠性的薄弱环节。
Based on the logical relationship of Bayesian network, specific to the uncertainty output power of distributed generation and time-varying characteristics of load in microgrid, the reliability indices of distribution system were solved by using time-sharing method. In the operation mode of island, the equivalent power(source) node was set with various logical combinations of distributed generation and energy storage elements, and with that, the "dynamic-supply" logical relation model was constructed for the supply-load node of the microgrid based on power flow calculation. The reliability of the modified RBTS Bus6-F4 was evaluated by the time-sequence simulation algorithm based on Bayesian network. With the help of Bayesian networks causal reasoning,the influence degree of each component reliability parameters on the system reliability index was analyzed, with the diagnosis reasoning, the fault condition probability of each element in the system was solved respectively in case of the system fault, the microgrid node fault and important or non-important load fault in microgrid. In turn, the key factors that influence the power supply reliability of important load were found out, and thus,the weak links of the system reliability were identified.
Based on the logical relationship of Bayesian network, specific to the uncertainty output power of distributed generation and time-varying characteristics of load in microgrid, the reliability indices of distribution system were solved by using time-sharing method. In the operation mode of island, the equivalent power(source) node was set with various logical combinations of distributed generation and energy storage elements, and with that, the "dynamic-supply" logical relation model was constructed for the supply-load node of the microgrid based on power flow calculation. The reliability of the modified RBTS Bus6-F4 was evaluated by the time-sequence simulation algorithm based on Bayesian network. With the help of Bayesian networks causal reasoning,the influence degree of each component reliability parameters on the system reliability index was analyzed, with the diagnosis reasoning, the fault condition probability of each element in the system was solved respectively in case of the system fault, the microgrid node fault and important or non-important load fault in microgrid. In turn, the key factors that influence the power supply reliability of important load were found out, and thus,the weak links of the system reliability were identified.
引文
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[19]谷冉,黄丽华,澹台潇涵,等.基于模糊聚类的农村微网负荷控制策略研究[J].浙江农业学报,2014,26(2):473-477.Gu Ran,Huang Lihua,TanTai Xiaohan,et al.Study on rural micro grid load control strategy based on fuzzy clustering[J].Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2014,26(2):473-477(in Chinese).
[20]周凌安,申建建,李继红,等.日启停燃气机组调峰运行方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(20):5913-5921.Zhou Lingan,Shen Jianjian,Li Jihong,et al.Peak regulation method for daily start-stop gas-fired units[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(20):5913-5921(in Chinese).
[2]杨新法,苏剑,吕志鹏,等.微电网技术综述[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(1):57-70.Yang Xinfa,Su Jian,LüZhipeng,et al.Overview on micro-grid technology[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(1):57-70(in Chinese).
[3]别朝红,李更丰,王锡凡.含微网的新型配电系统可靠性评估综述[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(1):1-6.Bie Zhaohong,Li Gengfeng,Wang Xifan.Review on reliability evaluation of new distribution system with micro-grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(1):1-6(in Chinese).
[4]Yokoyama R,Niimura T,Saito N.Modeling and evaluation of supply reliability of microgrids including PVand wind power[C]//Power and Energy Society General Meeting-Conversion and Delivery of Electrical Energy in the 21st Century.Pittsburgh,USA:IEEE,2008:1-5.
[5]梁惠施,程林,刘思革.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的含微网配电网可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):76-81.Liang Huishi,Cheng Lin,Liu Sige.Monte Carlo simulation based reliability evaluation of distribution system containing microgrids[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(10):76-81(in Chinese).
[6]王杨,万凌云,胡博,等.基于孤岛运行特性的微电网可靠性分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(9):2379-2385.Wang Yang,Wan Lingyun,Hu Bo,et al.Isolated island operating characteristics based analysis on reliability of microgrid[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(9):2379-2385(in Chinese).
[7]王杨,谢开贵,胡博,等.基于时序模拟的离网型微网可靠性分析[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(6):206-211.Wang Yang,Xie Kaigui,Hu Bo,et al.Reliability analysis of islanded microgrid based on seauential simulation[J],Transactions of China Electric Technology Society,2016,31(6):206-211(in Chinese).
[8]王秀丽,武泽辰,曲翀.光伏发电系统可靠性分析及其置信容量计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(1):15-21.Wang Xiuli,Wu Zechen,Qu Chong.Reliability and capacity value evaluation of photovoltaic generation systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(1):15-21(in Chinese).
[9]黄小庆,杨宵,陈长青,等.计及保护装置动作不确定性的微电网可靠性评估,中国电机工程学报,2016,36(13):3498-3508.Huang Xiaoqing,Yang Xiao,Chen Changqing,et al.Reliability assessment of microgrid considering protective devices action probability[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(13):3498-3508(in Chinese).
[10]Blocklev D.Analvsing uncertainties:towards comparing bayesian and lntemal probabilities[J].Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing,2013,37(1):30-42
[11]郭屹全.基于贝叶斯网络法的电力系统可靠性评估[D].成都:西华大学,2015.Guo Yiquan.Reliability assessment of power system based on bayesian network method[D].Chengdu:Xihua University,2015(in Chinese).
[12]霍利民,朱永利,张在林,等.贝叶斯网络在配电系统可靠性评估中的应用[J].电工技术学报,2004,19(8):113-118.Huo Limin,Zhu Yongli,Zhang Zailing,et al.Bayesian networks application to reliability evaluation of electric distribution systems[J].Transactions of China Electric Technology Society,2004,19(8):113-118(in Chinese).
[13]霍利民,朱永利,张立国,等.用于电力系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络时序模拟推理算法[J].电工技术学报,2008,23(6):89-95.Huo Limin,Zhu Yongli,Zhang Liguo,et al.Bayesian network time-sequence simulation inference algorithm for reliability assessment of power systems[J].Transactions ofChina Electric Technology Society,2008,23(6):89-95(in Chinese).
[14]黄丽华,张丽娜,霍利民.基于时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估收敛判据[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(12):168-172.Huang Lihua,Zhang Lina,Huo Limin.Convergence criterion for distribution systems reliability assessment based on sequential simulation[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2011,27(12):168-172(in Chinese).
[15]黄丽华,李春兰,陈俊红,等.基于贝叶斯网络及时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(1):272-277.Huang Lihua,Li Chunlan,Chen Junhong,et al.Reliability assessment based on Bayesian networks and time sequence simulation for distribution systems[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(1):272-277(in Chinese).
[16]黄丽华.基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估[D].保定:河北农业大学,2012.Huang Lihua.Reliability assessment based on Bayesian networks time sequence simulation for distribution systems[D].Baoding:Agriculture University of Hebei,2012(in Chinese)
[17]Allan R N,Billinton R,Sjarief I,et al.A reliability test system for education purposes:basic distribution system datand results[J].IEEE Trans.on Power system,1991,6(2):813-820.
[18]杨鸣.基于蒙特卡罗法的配电系统可靠性分析[D].南京:河海大学,2006.Yang Ming.Distribution systems reliability evaluation based on monte carlo simulation technique[D].Nanjing:Hehai University,2006(in Chinese).
[19]谷冉,黄丽华,澹台潇涵,等.基于模糊聚类的农村微网负荷控制策略研究[J].浙江农业学报,2014,26(2):473-477.Gu Ran,Huang Lihua,TanTai Xiaohan,et al.Study on rural micro grid load control strategy based on fuzzy clustering[J].Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis,2014,26(2):473-477(in Chinese).
[20]周凌安,申建建,李继红,等.日启停燃气机组调峰运行方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(20):5913-5921.Zhou Lingan,Shen Jianjian,Li Jihong,et al.Peak regulation method for daily start-stop gas-fired units[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(20):5913-5921(in Chinese).