煤炭资源型城市多适应性情景动力学模型研究——以鄂尔多斯市为例
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摘要
作为在中国社会经济发展中承担重要角色,同时也是目前数量最多、经济比重最大的一类资源型城市,煤炭资源型城市由于煤炭的开发和利用正面临着多种经济、社会和生态问题,亟需进行发展方式转型.以中国的国情,区域转型往往是通过决策者所实施的一系列引导或调控政策来实现.而政策制定的前提是对区域问题的本质及产生机理的充分认识,其关键在于对多种政策效用及其影响的系统评估.目前,基于要素耦合和系统视角的系统动力学模型,已被广泛用于区域转型策略研究中,在揭示复杂问题本质方面具有显著优势,但其在评估和指导具体调控政策方面尚有待深化.为此,本研究在构建煤炭资源型城市系统动力学模型基础上,提出了多适应性情景系统动力学模型(Multiple Adaptive Scenarios system Dynamic model,MASD).MASD的优势在于构建了多个政策变量并根据政策变量的阈值生成适应性管理情景,通过改良政策情景设置方法弥补了以往系统动力学模型在政策效应评估方面的不足,从而为区域转型决策提供了更有效的研究工具.研究选择了内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市为案例区,运用MASD模型分析了吨煤工业耗水量、水循环利用效率、人均居民生活用水、城市建设用地扩张速率和人口承载力管理等调控政策的系统影响.研究发现,煤炭资源型城市社会经济发展存在一般性规律,即依次经历自然增长、加速增长、波动性稳定增长、衰退和再平衡等发展阶段;同时,不同调控政策在系统发展的不同阶段起主导作用.据此,研究提出了"先动态识别阶段,后划定主导政策"的资源型城市转型管理策略.根据研究区社会经济现状判断,鄂尔多斯市正处于加速增长到波动稳定的过渡阶段,最优转型策略是发展节水型工业,并依据承载力来调控城镇人口规模,引导区域的转型与可持续发展
引文
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贾冯睿,吴明,王雷.2013.资源型城市复杂因素耦合的系统动力学分析.环境科学与技术,4:177-181
靳春燕,喜军,鲁丽波,徐艳红.2014.鄂尔多斯市土地利用类型动态变化研究及其驱动力分析.西部资源,(6):93-95
梁昊光,刘彦随.2014.北京市人口时空变化与情景预测研究.地理学报,69:1487-1495
柯文岚,沙景华,闫晶晶.2013.基于系统动力学的鄂尔多斯市生态经济系统均衡发展研究.资源与产业,15:19-26
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汤万金,高林,吴刚,李祥仪.2000.矿区可持续发展系统动力学模拟与调控.生态学报,20:20-27
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郁亚娟,郭怀成,刘永,黄凯,王真.2007.城市生态系统的动力学演化模型研究进展.生态学报.27:2604-2614
张运美.2013.资源型城市转型中的政府政策支持研究.硕士学位论文.长春:东北师范大学
周勇.2007.我国资源型城市产业转型模式研究.硕士学位论文.北京:首都经济贸易大学
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Ding C.2004.Farmland Preservation in China.Land Lines Article,16:9-11
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Feng X,Qiu G.2008.Mercury pollution in Guizhou,southwestern China-An overview.Sci Total Environ,400:227-237
Feng Y Y,Chen S Q,Zhang L X.2013.System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions:A case study of Beijing,China.Ecol Model,252:44-52
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Guo L.2011.The sustainable development system structural model of Shaanxi coal industry.J Sustain Develop,5:128
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Helldén U.2008.A coupled human-environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies.Glob Planet Change,64:158-168
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Michieka N M,Fletcher J J.2012.An investigation of the role of China’s urban population on coal consumption.Energ Policy,48:668-676
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Tan M,Li X,Xie H,Lu C.2005.Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China-A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Land Use Policy,22:187-196
Tao Z,Li M.2007.What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies-ASTELLA model of Hubbert Peak.Energ Policy,35:3145-3154
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Wang T,Zhu Z,Wu W.2002.Sandy desertification in the north of China.Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci,45:23-34
Woodworth M D.2011.Frontier boomtown urbanism in Ordos,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Cross-Currents,1:127-153
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郭明,肖笃宁,李新.2006.黑河流域酒泉绿洲景观生态安全格局分析.生态学报,26:457-466
何春阳,史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠,李晓兵,李京,李月臣,李景刚.2005.基于系统动力学模型和元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模型研究.中国科学D辑:地球科学,5:464-473
贾冯睿,吴明,王雷.2013.资源型城市复杂因素耦合的系统动力学分析.环境科学与技术,4:177-181
靳春燕,喜军,鲁丽波,徐艳红.2014.鄂尔多斯市土地利用类型动态变化研究及其驱动力分析.西部资源,(6):93-95
梁昊光,刘彦随.2014.北京市人口时空变化与情景预测研究.地理学报,69:1487-1495
柯文岚,沙景华,闫晶晶.2013.基于系统动力学的鄂尔多斯市生态经济系统均衡发展研究.资源与产业,15:19-26
冷疏影.1994.人类活动对鄂尔多斯环境退化的影响.干旱区资源与环境,8:44-52
李强,顾朝林.2015.城市公共安全应响应动态地理模拟研究.中国科学D辑:地球科学,45:290-304
李双成,王羊,蔡运龙.2010.复杂性科学视角下的地理学研究范式转型.地理学报,65:1315-1324
陆大道.2014.统筹兼顾全面部署资源型城市可持续发展迈入新阶段--《全国资源型城市可持续发展规划》专家解读之一.国土资源,1:10-11
蒙吉军,赵春红,刘明达.2011.基于土地利用变化的区域生态安全评价--以鄂尔多斯市为例.自然资源学报,26:578-590
蒙吉军,朱利凯,杨倩,毛熙彦.2012.鄂尔多斯市土地利用生态安全格局构建.生态学报,32:6755-6766
沈镭.2005.我国资源型城市转型的理论与案例研究.博士学位论文.北京:中国科学院研究生院
汤万金,高林,吴刚,李祥仪.2000.矿区可持续发展系统动力学模拟与调控.生态学报,20:20-27
王帮俊,周敏,吉峰.2009.系统动力学视角下的资源型城市经济增长机制与可持续发展分析.中国矿业大学学报(社会科学版),11:71-75
王其藩.1993.系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社
姚平,孙璐,梁静国,陈培友.2008.煤炭城市可持续发展的系统动力学模拟与调控.数学的实践与认识,38:301-316
郁亚娟,郭怀成,刘永,黄凯,王真.2007.城市生态系统的动力学演化模型研究进展.生态学报.27:2604-2614
张运美.2013.资源型城市转型中的政府政策支持研究.硕士学位论文.长春:东北师范大学
周勇.2007.我国资源型城市产业转型模式研究.硕士学位论文.北京:首都经济贸易大学
钟永光,贾晓菁,李旭.2009.系统动力学.北京:科学出版社
Brandt A R.2007.Testing Hubbert.Energ Policy,35:3074-3088
Brassil C E.2001.Mean time to extinction of a metapopulation with an Allee effect.Ecol Model,143:9-16
Chaker A,El-Fadl K,Chamas L,Hatjian B.2006.A review of strategic environmental assessment in 12 selected countries.Environ Impact Assess Rev,26:15-56
Champion A G.2001.A changing demographic regime and evolving polycentric urban regions:Consequences for the size,composition and distribution of city populations.Urban Stud,38:657-677
Costanza R,Gottlieb S.1998.Modelling ecological and economic systems with STELLA:Part II.Ecol Model,112:81-84
Costanza R,Voinov A.2001.Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA:Part III.Ecol Model,143:1-7
Crompton P,Wu Y.2005.Energy consumption in China:Past trends and future directions.Energ Econ,27:195-208
Dietz T,Rosa E.A,York R.2009.Environmentally efficient well-being:Rethinking sustainability as the relationship between human well-being and environmental impacts.Hum Ecol Rev,16:114-123
Ding C.2004.Farmland Preservation in China.Land Lines Article,16:9-11
Dong S C,Li Z H,Li B,Xue M.2007.Problems and strategies of industrial transformation of China’s resource-based cities.China Popul Resour Environ,17:12-17
Feng X,Qiu G.2008.Mercury pollution in Guizhou,southwestern China-An overview.Sci Total Environ,400:227-237
Feng Y Y,Chen S Q,Zhang L X.2013.System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions:A case study of Beijing,China.Ecol Model,252:44-52
Groffman P M,Baron J S,Blett T,Gold A J,Goodman I,Gunderson LH,Levinson B M,Palmer M A,Paerl H W,Peterson G D,Poff N LR,Rejeski D W,Reynolds J F,Turner M G,Weathers K C,Wiens J.2006.Ecological thresholds:The key to successful environmental management or an important concept with no practical application?Ecosystems,9:1-13
Guo L.2011.The sustainable development system structural model of Shaanxi coal industry.J Sustain Develop,5:128
He C Y,Zhao Y,Huang Q X,Zhang Q,Zhang D.2015.Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.Sci Total Environ,532:48-60
Helldén U.2008.A coupled human-environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies.Glob Planet Change,64:158-168
Hilson G,Murck B.2000.Sustainable development in the mining in dustry:Clarifying the corporate perspective.Resources Policy,26:227-238
Hubbert M K.1956.Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels.In:Meeting of the Southern District,Division of Production,American Petroleum Institute.San Antonio:Shell Development Company
Laurence D.2011.Establishing a sustainable mining operation:An overview.J Clean Prod,19:278-284
Li H,Long R,Chen H.2013.Economic transition policies in Chinese resourcebased cities:An overview of government efforts.Energ Policy,55:251-260
Li M.2012.Peak energy,climate change,and limits to China’s economic growth.Chinese Econ,45:74-92
Lin B Q,Liu J H.2010.Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China.Energ Policy,38:512-519
Liu J,Diamond J.2005.China’s environment in a globalizing world.Nature,435:1179-1186
Martinet V,Doyen L.2007.Sustainability of an economy with an exhaustible resource:A viable control approach.Resour Energ Econ,29:17-39
Michieka N M,Fletcher J J.2012.An investigation of the role of China’s urban population on coal consumption.Energ Policy,48:668-676
Nelson D R,Adger W N,Brown K.2007.Adaptation to environmental change:Contributions of a resilience framework.Annu Rev Environ Resour,32:395-419
Reynolds J F,Smith D M S,Lambin E F,Turner B L,Mortimore M,Batterbury S P J,Downing T E,Dowlatabadi H,Fernández R J,Herrick J E,Huber-Sannwald E,Jiang H,Leemans R,Lynam T,Maestre F T,Ayarza M,Walker B.2007.Global desertification:Building a science for dryland development.Science,316:847-851
Shealy M,Dorian J P.2010.Growing Chinese coal use:Dramatic resource and environmental implications.Energ Policy,38:2116-2122
Shen L,Gao T M,Cheng X.2011.China’s coal policy since 1979:Abrief overview.Energ Policy,40:274-281
Stern D I.1995.The contribution of the mining sector to sustainability in developing countries.Ecol Econ,13:53-63
Sun G D.2010.Coal in China:Resources,uses,and advanced coal technologies.In:Coal Initiative Reports White Paper Series.Pew Center on Global Climate Change,Arlington
Sun W,Wu Q,Dong D,Jiao J.2012.Avoiding coal-water conflicts during the development of China’s large coal-producing regions.Mine Water Environ,31:74-78
Tan M,Li X,Xie H,Lu C.2005.Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China-A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Land Use Policy,22:187-196
Tao Z,Li M.2007.What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies-ASTELLA model of Hubbert Peak.Energ Policy,35:3145-3154
Turner B L,Matson P A,McCarthy J J,Corell R W,Christensen L,Eckley N,Hovelsrud-Broda G K,Kasperson J X,Kasperson R E,Luers A,Martello M L,Mathiesen S,Naylor R,Polsky C,Pulsipher A,Schiller A,Selin H,Tyler N.2003.Illustrating the coupled humanenvironment system for vulnerability analysis:Three case studies.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,100:8080-8085
Wang B J,Zhou M,Ji F.2009.Analyzing on the selecting behavior of mining cities’industrial transition based on the viewpoint of sustainable development:A perspective of evolutionary game.In:Ge S,Liu J,Guo C,eds.Procedia Earth and Planetary Science.International Conference on Mining Science and Technology,Xuzhou.1:1647-1653
Wang J,Feng L,Tverberg G E.2013.An analysis of China’s coal supply and its impact on China’s future economic growth.Energ Policy,57:542-551
Wang T,Zhu Z,Wu W.2002.Sandy desertification in the north of China.Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci,45:23-34
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