基于GWR模型的长株潭地区县级乡村重构?时空格局及城镇驱动力研究
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摘要
以长株潭地区县级行政区域为例,摒弃局限于乡村内部变量的常规研究思路,在构建乡村重构度评价体系的基础上,主要运用地理加权回归分析(GWR)等方法研究乡村重构时空格局及其城镇驱动力。研究结果表明:1)2010—2016年间,长株潭地区乡村重构度在研究期内县均增长7.55个百分点,呈现"两头窄,中间宽"的梭形分异发展结构;2)乡村重构度和城镇四项驱动因子均具有高水平类聚现象,乡村重构发展与受城镇驱动作用均存在较强的地域相关性和空间异质性;3)研究区北部发达地区乡村重构格局受城镇化、生活水平驱动作用较强,南部远离城市核心地区受投资建设水平和市场发展水平的提升作用更加明显。新时期,长株潭地区不同乡村格局的重构要基于城镇驱动力的差异程度采取差异化的发展措施,特别是对于落后地区的乡村重构要更加重视乡村资源潜力和城镇发展实力的统筹推进。
Taking the administrative regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas as examples, this paper built an evaluation system by applying the Geographic Weighted Regression(GWR) model to study the reconstruction of the spatial-temporal structure for the selected administrative regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas and examined the urban driving forces. Results show that the degree of rural reconstruction has increased by 7.55% during the years of 2010-2016, and its distribution is a normal distribution. Both the degree of rural reconstruction and four factors in urban driving forces generally had high levels in cluster analysis, and they were significantly different in various regions. The degree of rural reconstruction was primarily dominated by urbanization level and people's living standards in these developed regions in the north, whereas it was mainly affected by the levels of investment and market development in the southern regions. In summary, this paper suggests that different regions in Changsha-ZhuzhouXiangtan rural areas should adopt different approaches and try to promote the integrated development in rural areas incorporating resource potentials and the unique strength for each region.
Taking the administrative regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas as examples, this paper built an evaluation system by applying the Geographic Weighted Regression(GWR) model to study the reconstruction of the spatial-temporal structure for the selected administrative regions in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan rural areas and examined the urban driving forces. Results show that the degree of rural reconstruction has increased by 7.55% during the years of 2010-2016, and its distribution is a normal distribution. Both the degree of rural reconstruction and four factors in urban driving forces generally had high levels in cluster analysis, and they were significantly different in various regions. The degree of rural reconstruction was primarily dominated by urbanization level and people's living standards in these developed regions in the north, whereas it was mainly affected by the levels of investment and market development in the southern regions. In summary, this paper suggests that different regions in Changsha-ZhuzhouXiangtan rural areas should adopt different approaches and try to promote the integrated development in rural areas incorporating resource potentials and the unique strength for each region.
引文
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[16]龙花楼,邹健,李婷婷,等.乡村转型发展特征评价及地域类型划分--以“苏南-陕北”样带为例[J].地理研究,2012,31(3):495-506.Long H L,Zou J,Li T T,et al.Study on the characteristics and territorial types of rural transformation development:The case of“Southern Jiangsu-Northern Shaanxi”transect[J].Geographical Research,2012,31(3):495-506.
[17]申明锐,张京祥.新型城镇化背景下的中国乡村转型与复兴[J].城市规划,2015,39(1):30-34,63.Shen M R,Zhang J X.China’s rural transformation and revival in the context of new urbanization[J].City Planning Review,2015,39(1):30-34,63.
[18]徐小东,沈宇驰.新型城镇化背景下水网密集地区乡村空间结构转型与优化[J].南方建筑,2015(5):70-74.Xu X D,Shen Y C.The transformation and optimization of rural spatial structures in regions with dense water networks in the context of new-type urbanization[J].South Architecture,2015(5):70-74.
[19]Anselin L.Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[20]Brunsdon C,Fotheringham S,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series D,1998,47(3):431-443.
[2]Long H L,Zou J,Pykett J,et al.Analysis of rural transformation development in China since the turn of the new millennium[J].Applied Geography,2011,31(3):1094-1105.
[3]龙花楼.论土地利用转型与乡村转型发展[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(2):131-138.Long H L.Land use transition and rural transformation development[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(2):131-138.
[4]Woods M.Rural[M].London and New York:Routledge,2011.
[5]龙花楼,屠爽爽.乡村重构的理论认知[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(5):581-590.Long H L,Tu S S.Theoretical thinking of rural restructuring[J].Progress in Geography,2018,37(5):581-590.
[6]Terluin I J,Post J H.Differences in economic development in rural regions of advanced countries:An overview and critical analysis of theories[J].Journal of Rural Studies,2003,19(3):327-344.
[7]李红波,张小林.城乡统筹背景的空间发展:村落衰退与重构[J].改革,2012(1):148-153.Li H B,Zhang X L.Spatial extension in the context of urban and rural development:Village recession and reconstruction[J].Reform,2012(1):148-153.
[8]屠爽爽,龙花楼,李婷婷,等.中国村镇建设和农村发展的机理与模式研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(12):141-147,160.Tu S S,Long H L,Li T T,et al.The mechanism and models of villages and towns construction and rural development in China[J].Economic Geography,2015,35(12):141-147,160.
[9]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically Weighted Regression:The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships[M].Wiley:West Sussex,2002.
[10]原野,师学义,牛姝烨,等.基于GWR模型的晋城市村庄空心化驱动力研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(7):148-155.Yuan Y,Shi X Y,Niu S Y,et al.A GWR-based study on Jincheng City hollow village driving force[J].Economic Geography,2015,38(7):148-155.
[11]马勇,黄智洵.基于GWR模型的长江中游城市群传统村落空间格局及可达性探究[J].人文地理,2017,32(4):78-85.Ma Y,Huang Z X.Research on spatial distribution and accessibility of the traditional villages in the urban agglomeration on the middle reaches of the Yangtze river based on GWRmodel[J].Human Geography,2017,32(4):78-85.
[12]刘卫东,刘红光,范晓梅,等.地区间贸易流量的产业-空间模型构建与应用[J].地理学报,2012,67(2):147-156.Liu W D,Liu H G,Fan X M.Sector-specific spatial statistic model for estimating inter-regional trade flows:A case study of agricultural,chemical and electronic sectors in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(2):147-156.
[13]王艳飞,刘彦随,李玉恒.乡村转型发展格局与驱动机制的区域性分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(5):135-142.Wang Y F,Liu Y S,Li Y H.The spatial disparity of rural transition development and regional characteristics of its driving forces[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(5):135-142.
[14]王艳飞,刘彦随,李裕瑞.环渤海地区城镇化与农村协调发展的时空特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(1):122-130.Wang Y F,Liu Y S,Li Y R.Spatial-temporal patterns of urbanization and rural development and their coordination in Bohai Rim region[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(1):122-130.
[15]龙花楼.中国乡村转型发展与土地利用[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.Long H L.Land Use and Rural Transformation Development in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012.
[16]龙花楼,邹健,李婷婷,等.乡村转型发展特征评价及地域类型划分--以“苏南-陕北”样带为例[J].地理研究,2012,31(3):495-506.Long H L,Zou J,Li T T,et al.Study on the characteristics and territorial types of rural transformation development:The case of“Southern Jiangsu-Northern Shaanxi”transect[J].Geographical Research,2012,31(3):495-506.
[17]申明锐,张京祥.新型城镇化背景下的中国乡村转型与复兴[J].城市规划,2015,39(1):30-34,63.Shen M R,Zhang J X.China’s rural transformation and revival in the context of new urbanization[J].City Planning Review,2015,39(1):30-34,63.
[18]徐小东,沈宇驰.新型城镇化背景下水网密集地区乡村空间结构转型与优化[J].南方建筑,2015(5):70-74.Xu X D,Shen Y C.The transformation and optimization of rural spatial structures in regions with dense water networks in the context of new-type urbanization[J].South Architecture,2015(5):70-74.
[19]Anselin L.Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[20]Brunsdon C,Fotheringham S,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series D,1998,47(3):431-443.