灾害链研究进展与展望
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摘要
灾害的形成、发生与发展过程具有链式规律,灾害链已经成为灾害研究的热点问题之一。为全面了解国内外灾害链的研究进展,通过梳理和分析灾害链研究相关文献对已取得的研究成果进行归纳和总结,探讨了研究中存在的一些不足,并对今后灾害链的研究趋势进行了展望。首先,梳理了国内外研究中不同学者对灾害链概念的理解;其次,总结了灾害链研究中灾害链分类的3种方式——基于灾种的灾害链分类、基于灾害链时空结构的灾害链分类和基于灾害系统要素的分类;重点阐述了灾害链研究的主要内容,包括灾害链形成机制、灾害链风险评估、灾害链损失评估以及灾害链孕源断链减灾对策;归纳出灾害链研究中采用的3类主要方法——基于数据的概率分析方法、基于复杂网络的研究方法和基于遥感实测的研究方法;最后对灾害链研究目前存在的问题和未来可能的发展趋势进行了探讨。
There is a chain rule in the process of the formation,occurrence and development of the disaster.So the disaster chain has become a hot topic of the disaster research. In order to know the research progress of the disaster chain at home and abroad thoroughly,we summarize the present research achievements by sorting out and analyzing the relevant literature of disaster chain research. We also discuss some shortcomings in the present research,and point out the research prospects of the disaster chain research trend. This review first focused on the understandings of the disaster chain conception among the domestic and foreign scholars. Second,it summed up three ways on disaster chain classification in the disaster chain research. The three ways include the kinds of disaster,the space-time structure of the disaster chain and the factors of disaster system. We concentrate on the main content of the disaster chain research which includes the formation mechanism,risk assessment,loss assessment of the disaster chain,and chain-cutting disaster mitigation from gestation source. Thereby,we conclude three main methods applied in the disaster chain research: probability analysis based on statistics; research methods based on the complex network and research methods based on remote sensing and actual measurement. Finally,there is a discussion on the problems in the present disaster chain research and possible trends for development.
There is a chain rule in the process of the formation,occurrence and development of the disaster.So the disaster chain has become a hot topic of the disaster research. In order to know the research progress of the disaster chain at home and abroad thoroughly,we summarize the present research achievements by sorting out and analyzing the relevant literature of disaster chain research. We also discuss some shortcomings in the present research,and point out the research prospects of the disaster chain research trend. This review first focused on the understandings of the disaster chain conception among the domestic and foreign scholars. Second,it summed up three ways on disaster chain classification in the disaster chain research. The three ways include the kinds of disaster,the space-time structure of the disaster chain and the factors of disaster system. We concentrate on the main content of the disaster chain research which includes the formation mechanism,risk assessment,loss assessment of the disaster chain,and chain-cutting disaster mitigation from gestation source. Thereby,we conclude three main methods applied in the disaster chain research: probability analysis based on statistics; research methods based on the complex network and research methods based on remote sensing and actual measurement. Finally,there is a discussion on the problems in the present disaster chain research and possible trends for development.
引文
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