2013-2014年全国甲型H7N9流感传播的时空模式研究
|
摘要
目的分析2013-2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险大小。方法采用Moran′s I统计指数的方法来分析2013-2014年中国各地区人感染H7N9流感病毒的年均发病率的空间自相关特性,并用贝叶斯层次模型来预测2013-2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险大小。结果 2013年中国各地区人感染H7N9流感病毒的发病率为0.02/10万~1.44/10万,2014年发病率为0.03/10万~2.32/10万。2013-2014年中国各地区人感染H7N9流感病毒的年均发病率存在空间正相关性,因为它们的Moran′s I统计指数值均>0,均P<0.05,空间点模式为聚集分布。2013年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的相对风险值为7.24~354.80,2014年的相对风险值为6.13~318.60。2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险相对高的地区数量相对于2013年有所减少,暴发人感染H7N9流感病毒风险的最大值和最小值也有所下降。结论 2013-2014年中国各地区发生人感染H7N9流感病毒事件的风险呈降低趋势。
Objective To depict the spatio-temporal pattern of avian influenza A H7 N9 in China from 2013 to2014 and to predict the relative risk of virus infection in human. Methods Moran′s I index was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of the average annual incidence of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 in China,and Bayesian hierarchal model was applied to predict the relative risk of this virus infection in different regions of China during 2013 and 2014. Results The overall incidence of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 infection ranged from 0.02 por 100 000 to 1.44 por 100 000 in 2013 and from 0.03 por 100 000 to 2.32 por 100 000 in2014 in China and the average annual incidences in different regions showed positive spatial autocorrelation(Moran′s I>0;P< 0.05).Meanwhile,their spatial points showed clustered distribution.The relative risk of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 infection in human ranged from 7.24 to 354.80 in 2013 and from 6.13 to318.60 in 2014 with both the maximum value and minimum value decreasing. Conclusions The risk of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 infection in human shows a down-ward trend from 2013 to 2014 in China.
Objective To depict the spatio-temporal pattern of avian influenza A H7 N9 in China from 2013 to2014 and to predict the relative risk of virus infection in human. Methods Moran′s I index was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of the average annual incidence of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 in China,and Bayesian hierarchal model was applied to predict the relative risk of this virus infection in different regions of China during 2013 and 2014. Results The overall incidence of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 infection ranged from 0.02 por 100 000 to 1.44 por 100 000 in 2013 and from 0.03 por 100 000 to 2.32 por 100 000 in2014 in China and the average annual incidences in different regions showed positive spatial autocorrelation(Moran′s I>0;P< 0.05).Meanwhile,their spatial points showed clustered distribution.The relative risk of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 infection in human ranged from 7.24 to 354.80 in 2013 and from 6.13 to318.60 in 2014 with both the maximum value and minimum value decreasing. Conclusions The risk of avian influenza A subtype H7 N9 infection in human shows a down-ward trend from 2013 to 2014 in China.
引文
[1]World Health Organization.Global Health Observatory(GHO)data[EB/OL].[2016-10-20].http://www.who.int/gho/en/.
[2]Xu J,Yu X,Walline J.What does H7N9mean and how can we be prepared for the next flu pandemic?[J].Sci China Life Sci,2013,56(11):1057-1058.
[3]Zhang Y,Shen Z,Ma C,et al.Cluster of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)cases:a temporal and spatial analysis[J].Int J Environ Res Public Health,2015,12(1):816-828.
[4]Fang LQ,Li XL,Liu K,et al.Mapping spread and risk of avian influenza A(H7N9)in China[J].Sci Rep,2013,3:2722.
[5]Qi X,Qian YH,Bao CJ,et al.Probable person to person transmission of novel avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in Eastern China,2013:epidemiological investigation[J].BMJ,2013,347:f4752.
[6]Poovorawan Y.Epidemic of avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in China[J].Pathog Glob Health,2014,108(4):169-170.
[7]Horby P.H7N9is a virus worth worrying about[J].Nature,2013,496(7446):399.
[8]Unkel S,Farrington CP,Garthwaite PH,et al.Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks:a review[J].J R Statist Soc A,2012,175(1):49-82.
[9]Zou J,Karr AF,Datta G,et al.A Bayesian spatio-temporal approach for real-time detection of disease outbreaks:a case study[J].BMC Med Inform Decis Mak,2014,14:108.
[10]Zhang Y,Arab A,Cowling BJ,et al.Characterizing influenza surveillance systems performance:application of a Bayesian hierarchical statistical model to Hong Kong surveillance data[J].BMC Public Health,2014,14:850.
[11]World Health Organization.Emergencies preparedness,response(2015)[EB/OL].[2016-10-25].http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/country/chn/en/.
[12]中华人民共和国公安部.中华人民共和国全国分县市人口统计资料(2000年度)[M].北京:群众出版社,2001.
[13]公安部治安管理局.中华人民共和国全国分县市人口统计资料(2010年)[M].北京:群众出版社,2011.
[14]Westlund H.A brief history of time,space,and growth:Waldo Tobler′s first law of geography revisited[J].Ann Reg Sci,2013,51(3):917-924.
[15]林永添,陶韬,袁平,等.福建省局部地区消化系统主要癌种空间自相关分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(4):622-625.
[16]张人杰,李娜,王臻,等.浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(1):70-73.
[17]Viladomat J,Mazumder R,McInturff A,et al.Assessing the significance of global and local correlations under spatial autocorrelation:a nonparametric approach[J].Biometrics,2014,70(2):409-418.
[2]Xu J,Yu X,Walline J.What does H7N9mean and how can we be prepared for the next flu pandemic?[J].Sci China Life Sci,2013,56(11):1057-1058.
[3]Zhang Y,Shen Z,Ma C,et al.Cluster of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)cases:a temporal and spatial analysis[J].Int J Environ Res Public Health,2015,12(1):816-828.
[4]Fang LQ,Li XL,Liu K,et al.Mapping spread and risk of avian influenza A(H7N9)in China[J].Sci Rep,2013,3:2722.
[5]Qi X,Qian YH,Bao CJ,et al.Probable person to person transmission of novel avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in Eastern China,2013:epidemiological investigation[J].BMJ,2013,347:f4752.
[6]Poovorawan Y.Epidemic of avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in China[J].Pathog Glob Health,2014,108(4):169-170.
[7]Horby P.H7N9is a virus worth worrying about[J].Nature,2013,496(7446):399.
[8]Unkel S,Farrington CP,Garthwaite PH,et al.Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks:a review[J].J R Statist Soc A,2012,175(1):49-82.
[9]Zou J,Karr AF,Datta G,et al.A Bayesian spatio-temporal approach for real-time detection of disease outbreaks:a case study[J].BMC Med Inform Decis Mak,2014,14:108.
[10]Zhang Y,Arab A,Cowling BJ,et al.Characterizing influenza surveillance systems performance:application of a Bayesian hierarchical statistical model to Hong Kong surveillance data[J].BMC Public Health,2014,14:850.
[11]World Health Organization.Emergencies preparedness,response(2015)[EB/OL].[2016-10-25].http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/country/chn/en/.
[12]中华人民共和国公安部.中华人民共和国全国分县市人口统计资料(2000年度)[M].北京:群众出版社,2001.
[13]公安部治安管理局.中华人民共和国全国分县市人口统计资料(2010年)[M].北京:群众出版社,2011.
[14]Westlund H.A brief history of time,space,and growth:Waldo Tobler′s first law of geography revisited[J].Ann Reg Sci,2013,51(3):917-924.
[15]林永添,陶韬,袁平,等.福建省局部地区消化系统主要癌种空间自相关分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(4):622-625.
[16]张人杰,李娜,王臻,等.浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(1):70-73.
[17]Viladomat J,Mazumder R,McInturff A,et al.Assessing the significance of global and local correlations under spatial autocorrelation:a nonparametric approach[J].Biometrics,2014,70(2):409-418.