基于结构贝叶斯方程模型的航空维修差错人为因素分析
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摘要
目的研究人为因素和对应航空维修差错原因的耦合关系,有效评估维修差错人为因素的相对影响,有重点的指导维修差错的管控。方法结合专家知识和对维修人员的调查建立数据集和航空维修差错人为因素路径图,构建了结构贝叶斯方程模型用于航空维修差错人为因素分析。结果通过结构方程模型求解和贝叶斯估计能够得出人为因素和对应航空维修差错原因的因子载荷,从而对其进行重要度分析,有针对性的进行维修人为因素管理和航空维修差错原因管控。结论对某航空公司进行实例分析得出,该模型能够得到较为准确的航空维修差错人为因素分析结果,得到主要的维修人为因素和对应的航空维修差错原因,从而在节约管理资源的基础上减少人为因素导致的维修差错。
Objective To study the coupling relationship between human factors and the causes of aviation maintenance errors,to effectively evaluate the relative influence of artificial factors on maintenance errors,and to guide the management and control of maintenance errors. Methods Based on the expert knowledge and the investigation of the maintenance personnel,the data set and the artificial factor path map of the aviation maintenance error were set up,and the structural Bayesian equation model was constructed for the artificial factor analysis of the aviation maintenance error. Results By the structural equation model solution and Bias estimation,the factor load of human factors and the cause of aviation maintenance error can be obtained,so as to carry on the analysis of the importance of the factor,and to carry out the maintenance human factors management and the control of the cause of aviation maintenance error. Conclusion A case analysis of an airline shows that the model can get a more accurate result of the artificial factor analysis of aviation maintenance errors,get the main maintenance factors and the causes of the corresponding aviation maintenance errors,so as to reduce the maintenance error caused by human factors on the basis of saving management resources.
Objective To study the coupling relationship between human factors and the causes of aviation maintenance errors,to effectively evaluate the relative influence of artificial factors on maintenance errors,and to guide the management and control of maintenance errors. Methods Based on the expert knowledge and the investigation of the maintenance personnel,the data set and the artificial factor path map of the aviation maintenance error were set up,and the structural Bayesian equation model was constructed for the artificial factor analysis of the aviation maintenance error. Results By the structural equation model solution and Bias estimation,the factor load of human factors and the cause of aviation maintenance error can be obtained,so as to carry on the analysis of the importance of the factor,and to carry out the maintenance human factors management and the control of the cause of aviation maintenance error. Conclusion A case analysis of an airline shows that the model can get a more accurate result of the artificial factor analysis of aviation maintenance errors,get the main maintenance factors and the causes of the corresponding aviation maintenance errors,so as to reduce the maintenance error caused by human factors on the basis of saving management resources.
引文
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[7]陈农田,马婷,李瑞.基于THERP+HCR的航空维修差错人误概率计算[J].人类工效学,2016,22(6):59-63.
[8] Chang YH,Wang YC. Significant Human Risk Factors in Aircraft Maintenance Technicians[J]. Safety Science,2010,48(1):54-62.
[9] Xie X,Guo D. Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management:Process Safety in Engineering[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2018,113(11):467-482.
[10] Bandeira MCGSP,Correia AR,Martins MR. General Model Analysis of Aeronautical Accidents Involving Human and Organizational Factors[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2018,69(3):137-146.
[11] Chang YH,Wang YC. Significant Human Risk Factors in Aircraft Maintenance Technicians[J]. Safety Science,2010,48(1):54-62.
[12]魏萌,王靳辉,衡广辉.基于吉布斯抽样的相关观测异常值检测的贝叶斯方法[J].测绘科学技术学报,2012,29(5):326-329.
[13]文雯,文小焱,胡珊,等.贝叶斯层次模型在嵌套结构调查数据中的应用研究[J].中国卫生统计,2015,32(2):190-193.
[2]杨鑫.航空维修差错事故的人为因素干预体系的构建[J].科技创新导报,2015,11(15):237-237.
[3]苟立俊.航空维修人为因素数据管理系统的设计与实现[D].成都:电子科技大学,2011.
[4]张清平.浅谈航空维修生产中的人为因素管理[J].价值工程,2011,30(18):35-35.
[5]张凯,高德水,董文强.浅析飞机维修计划和机务维修中的人为因素[J].中国民用航空,2011,21(12):59-61.
[6]王岩峰,王华伟.基于灰色理论的航空维修人为因素分析[J].人类工效学,2011,17(3):60-63.
[7]陈农田,马婷,李瑞.基于THERP+HCR的航空维修差错人误概率计算[J].人类工效学,2016,22(6):59-63.
[8] Chang YH,Wang YC. Significant Human Risk Factors in Aircraft Maintenance Technicians[J]. Safety Science,2010,48(1):54-62.
[9] Xie X,Guo D. Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management:Process Safety in Engineering[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2018,113(11):467-482.
[10] Bandeira MCGSP,Correia AR,Martins MR. General Model Analysis of Aeronautical Accidents Involving Human and Organizational Factors[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2018,69(3):137-146.
[11] Chang YH,Wang YC. Significant Human Risk Factors in Aircraft Maintenance Technicians[J]. Safety Science,2010,48(1):54-62.
[12]魏萌,王靳辉,衡广辉.基于吉布斯抽样的相关观测异常值检测的贝叶斯方法[J].测绘科学技术学报,2012,29(5):326-329.
[13]文雯,文小焱,胡珊,等.贝叶斯层次模型在嵌套结构调查数据中的应用研究[J].中国卫生统计,2015,32(2):190-193.