沈阳市水功能区水质现状评价及水质变化趋势成因分析
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摘要
针对仅用水质达标率并不能全面评价区域水资源保护现状的问题,根据沈阳市18个水功能区2012—2015年的监测历史资料,利用达标率法和基于改进的变权物元可拓模型对水功能区水质现状进行了综合评价,并在阐明水质达标率和综合水质变化趋势基础上,利用灰色关联和贡献率法分析了沈阳市水功能区水质产生变化的主要贡献因子。结果表明:沈阳市水功能区水质有快速好转的趋势,但现阶段达标率仍普遍偏低,其中BOD_5、NH_4~+-N达标率较低,18个水功能区平均值仅为66.7%和66.9%;水质好转的潜在影响因子的大小排序是:COD>COD_(Mn)>BOD_5>NH_4~+-N,但前3者对水功能区综合水质改善的贡献不大。NH_4~+-N是最主要的贡献因子,平均贡献率达161.8%,因为NH_4~+-N的生产弹性虽不大,但其单项水质增幅明显。研究成果可为评价沈阳市水功能区水质现状和明晓今后工作方向提供参考。
Aiming at the problem of that the regional water resources protection status cannot be fully assessed only with water quality standard-reaching rate,the water quality statuses of the water function zones in Shenyang are comprehensively assessed with the method of standard-reaching rate and based on improved matter-element extension model with variable weight in accordance with the historical monitoring data of 2012-2015 of 18 water function zones in the city.And then the main contribution factors for the changes of the water quality in the water function zones are analyzed with both grey relational analysis and contribution rate analysis on the basis of expounding the water quality standard-reaching rate and the comprehensive water quality changing trend.The result shows that the water qualities of the water function zones in Shenyang exhibit rapid improving trends,but the standard-reaching rates are generally lower therein at present;in which the standard-reaching rates of BOD_5and NH_4~+-N are lower and the mean values for the 18 water function zones are only 66.7%and 66.9%,while the order of the potential impacting factors of water quality improvement is COD>COD_(Mn)>BOD_5>NH_4~+-N.However,the contributions of the first three to improving the comprehensive water quality of water function zone are not so large.NH_4~+-N is the most important contribution factor with the mean contribution rate up to 161.8%,because of that though the production elasticity of NH_4~+-N is not large,the water quality increment of single item is remarkable.The study result can provide references for assessing water quality statuses of water function zones in Shenyang and realizing the working orientation in the days to come.
Aiming at the problem of that the regional water resources protection status cannot be fully assessed only with water quality standard-reaching rate,the water quality statuses of the water function zones in Shenyang are comprehensively assessed with the method of standard-reaching rate and based on improved matter-element extension model with variable weight in accordance with the historical monitoring data of 2012-2015 of 18 water function zones in the city.And then the main contribution factors for the changes of the water quality in the water function zones are analyzed with both grey relational analysis and contribution rate analysis on the basis of expounding the water quality standard-reaching rate and the comprehensive water quality changing trend.The result shows that the water qualities of the water function zones in Shenyang exhibit rapid improving trends,but the standard-reaching rates are generally lower therein at present;in which the standard-reaching rates of BOD_5and NH_4~+-N are lower and the mean values for the 18 water function zones are only 66.7%and 66.9%,while the order of the potential impacting factors of water quality improvement is COD>COD_(Mn)>BOD_5>NH_4~+-N.However,the contributions of the first three to improving the comprehensive water quality of water function zone are not so large.NH_4~+-N is the most important contribution factor with the mean contribution rate up to 161.8%,because of that though the production elasticity of NH_4~+-N is not large,the water quality increment of single item is remarkable.The study result can provide references for assessing water quality statuses of water function zones in Shenyang and realizing the working orientation in the days to come.
引文
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[3]殷世芳.水功能区达标率评价及影响因素分析[J].人民黄河,2012,34(5):38-39.
[4]乔倩倩,许鑫,骆素娜.水功能区水质达标评价方法分析[J].东北水利水电,2013,31(8):5-7.
[5]王佳,魏文杰,董飞,等.基于数理统计的水功能区达标评价方法[J].水资源保护,2016,32(1):154-160.
[6]周娜,贾仰文,胡鹏,等.松花江流域冰封期水功能区限制纳污控制研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(5):557-565.
[7]苏德林,武斌,沈晋.水环境质量评价中的层次分析法[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,1997,29(5):105-107.
[8]邹朝望,孙怀卫,黎育红,等.连通湖泊群加权模糊综合水质评价模型及其应用[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(8):34-37.
[9]蔡文,等.可拓工程方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1997.
[10]李泓泽,郭森,唐辉,等.基于改进变权物元可拓模型的电能质量综合评价[J].电网技术,2013,37(3):653-659.
[11]王洪德,曹英浩.基于改进变权物元可拓模型的围岩稳定性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(8):23-29.
[12]米丰佩.基于改进变权物元可拓模型的航空维修安全质量综合评价[J].科技创新与应用,2015(22):22-24.
[13]兰双双,姜纪沂,王滨.基于物元可拓法的地下水水质评价——以梨树县平原区浅层地下水为例[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2009,39(4):722-727.
[14]CHEN T,XIA G,WILSON L T,et al.Trend and cycle analysis of annual and seasonal precipitation in Liaoning,China[J].Advances in meteorology,2016,2016:1-15.
[15]杨银磊,许玉贵.基于灰色关联度方法的云南农民收入来源结构及贡献率分析[J].林业经济问题,2011(4):365-367.
[16]薛伟贤,董维维.我国外贸依存度影响因素的灰色关联度分析[J].国际经贸探索,2008,24(5):4-9.
[17]苏璟,谭忠富,严菲.能源消费弹性系数计算方法及其实例分析[J].中国能源,2008,30(8):26-29.