董事会报告可读性、制度环境与分析师预测——来自我国上市公司的经验证据
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摘要
依据2007-2016年中国上市公司数据,考量上市公司董事会报告可读性、制度环境对证券分析师盈利预测表现的影响。结果发现:董事会报告可读性越好,分析师预测越准确,分析师预测的分歧度也越小;考虑宏观制度环境的影响,上市公司所处地区的制度环境越好,分析师盈利预测的准确度越高,分歧度越小,受到董事会报告可读性的影响越少。鉴此,应完善公司非财务信息披露和外部制度环境,从而提高分析师预测准确性,促进资源有效配置。
Based on the data from 2007 to 2016 of Listed Companies in China, this paper examines empirically the effect of readability of board report and institutional environment on the accuracy of analysts' prediction about profit. The results show that higher readability of board's reports is associated with more accurate analyst forecast and less analysts' forecast dispersion. Considering the effect of macro institutional environment, we also find that the institutional environment is positively associated with analyst forecast dispersion and is negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion; furthermore, the analysts' prediction has less dependence on the readability of board report. Thus, it is necessary to improve non-financial information disclosure and external institutional environment to improve the accuracy of analysts' forecasts and promote the effective allocation of resources.
Based on the data from 2007 to 2016 of Listed Companies in China, this paper examines empirically the effect of readability of board report and institutional environment on the accuracy of analysts' prediction about profit. The results show that higher readability of board's reports is associated with more accurate analyst forecast and less analysts' forecast dispersion. Considering the effect of macro institutional environment, we also find that the institutional environment is positively associated with analyst forecast dispersion and is negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion; furthermore, the analysts' prediction has less dependence on the readability of board report. Thus, it is necessary to improve non-financial information disclosure and external institutional environment to improve the accuracy of analysts' forecasts and promote the effective allocation of resources.
引文
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[15] 李晚秋,张莉.非财务信息披露与分析师预测——基于深市上市企业社会责任报告的实证检验[J].财经理论与实践,2014(9):69-74.
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[18] Hope O.Accounting policy disclosures and analysts' forecasts [J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2003,20(2):295-321.
[19] Bushman R M,Piotroski J D,Smith A J.What determines corporate transparency?[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2004,42(2):207-252.
[20] Wang Q,Wong T J,Xia L J.State ownership,the institutional environment,and auditor choice;evidence from China [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2008,46(1):112-134.
[21] 罗党论,店清泉.市场环境与控股股东“掏空”行为研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].会计研究,2007(4):69-74.
[22] 王彦超,林斌,辛清泉.市场环境、民事诉讼与盈余管理[J].中国会计评论,2008(1):21-40.
[23] Butler K C,Lang L H P.The forecast accuracy of individual analysts:evidence of systematic optimism and pessimism [J].Journal of Accounting Research,1991,29(1):150- 156.
[24] 吉利,张丽,田静.我国上市公司社会责任信息披露可读性研究—基于管理层权力与约束机制的视角[J].会计与经济研究,2016(1):21-33.
[25] 孙蔓莉.公司年报中的印象管理行为研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2005:52-57.
[26] 樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数——各地区市场化相对进程2011年报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011:61-65.
[27] 杨兴全,张丽平,吴昊旻.市场化进程、管理层权力与公司现金持有[J].南开管理评论,2014(2):34-45.
[2] Healy P M,Hutton A P ,Palepu K G.Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure [J].Contemporary Accounting Research,1999,16 (3):485-520.
[3] Byard D,Shawk.Corporate disclosure quality and properties of analysts' information environment [J].Journal of Accounting,Auditing and Finance,2003,18 (3):355-378.
[4] Lee T A,Tweedie D P.Accounting information:an investigation of private shareholder usage [J].Accounting and Business Research,1975,5 (20):280-291.
[5] John K,Courtis.Readability of annual reports:western versus Asian evidence [J].Accounting Auditing &Accountability Journal,1995,8 (2):4-17.
[6] Chopra V.Why so much error in analysts’ earnings forecasts?[J].Financial Analysts Journal,1998,54 (6):35-42.
[7] 李丹,贾宁.盈余质量、制度环境与分析师预测 [J].中国会计评论,2009 (12):351-370.
[8] Brown L,Hagerman R,Griffin P,et al.Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,1987,9(1):61-87.
[9] 岳衡,林小驰.证券分析师VS统计模型:证券分析师盈余预测的相对准确性及其决定因素[J].会计研究,2008(8):40-49.
[10] Lys T,Sohn S.The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts security-price changes [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,1990,13(4):341-363.
[11] Brown L D.Analyst forecasting errors:additional evidence [J].Financial Analysts Journal,1997,53(6):81-88.
[12] 胡奕明,林文雄.信息关注深度、分析能力与分析质量——对我国证券分析师的调查[J].金融研究,2005(2):46-58.
[13] Vanstraelen A,Zarzeski M T,Robb S W U.Corporate nonfinancial disclosure practices and financial analyst forecast ability across three European countries[J].Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting,2003,14(3):249-278.
[14] Dhaliwal D S,Radhakrishnan S,Tsang A,et al.Nonfinancial disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy;international evidence on corporate social responsibility disclosure[J].The Accounting Review,2012,87(3):723-759.
[15] 李晚秋,张莉.非财务信息披露与分析师预测——基于深市上市企业社会责任报告的实证检验[J].财经理论与实践,2014(9):69-74.
[16] Kravet T,Muslu V.Textual risk disclosures and investors’risk perceptions [J].Review of Accounting Studies,2013,18(4):1088-1122.
[17] Lehavy R,Feng L,Merkley K.The effect of annual report readability on analyst following and the properties of their earnings forecasts [J].The Accounting Review,2011,86(3):1087-1106.
[18] Hope O.Accounting policy disclosures and analysts' forecasts [J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2003,20(2):295-321.
[19] Bushman R M,Piotroski J D,Smith A J.What determines corporate transparency?[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2004,42(2):207-252.
[20] Wang Q,Wong T J,Xia L J.State ownership,the institutional environment,and auditor choice;evidence from China [J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2008,46(1):112-134.
[21] 罗党论,店清泉.市场环境与控股股东“掏空”行为研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J].会计研究,2007(4):69-74.
[22] 王彦超,林斌,辛清泉.市场环境、民事诉讼与盈余管理[J].中国会计评论,2008(1):21-40.
[23] Butler K C,Lang L H P.The forecast accuracy of individual analysts:evidence of systematic optimism and pessimism [J].Journal of Accounting Research,1991,29(1):150- 156.
[24] 吉利,张丽,田静.我国上市公司社会责任信息披露可读性研究—基于管理层权力与约束机制的视角[J].会计与经济研究,2016(1):21-33.
[25] 孙蔓莉.公司年报中的印象管理行为研究[M].北京:人民出版社,2005:52-57.
[26] 樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数——各地区市场化相对进程2011年报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011:61-65.
[27] 杨兴全,张丽平,吴昊旻.市场化进程、管理层权力与公司现金持有[J].南开管理评论,2014(2):34-45.