财政农业支出的农民收入增长效应——基于收入来源的角度
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摘要
从农民收入来源角度,利用全国1985—2015年财政农业支出和农民人均纯收入数据,基于VAR模型和VEC模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等方法,考察财政农业支出对农民收入增长的长期和短期效应。结果表明:在长期,财政农业支出对农民人均纯收入具有正效应,但效应较弱;对农民的工资性收入、家庭经营收入、转移和财产性收入的效应存在差异,其中对农民工资性收入、转移和财产性收入效应较大,而对农民家庭经营收入效应较小。在短期,财政农业支出对农民家庭经营收入、转移和财产性收入的效应为正且较强,而对农民工资性收入的效应为负且较弱。此外,财政农业支出对农民转移和财产性收入增长的效应没有时滞性,而对农民家庭经营收入和工资性收入增长的效应有时滞性。
From the perspective of the source of peasants' income,using the data about fiscal expenditure for agriculture and per capita net income of peasants from 1985 to 2015,based on VAR model and VEC model,this paper makes an investigation on the effects of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on rural income growth in the long run and short run by means of co-integration test,impulse response functions,variance decomposition and some other methods. The results show that in the long run,fiscal expenditure for agriculture has a positive but weak effect on the rural per capita net income,in which there are differences on the effect of four kinds of rural income,which are wage income,household operating income,transferred and property income. Fiscal rural expenditure has stronger impact on rural wage income,transferred and property income,but a weaker effect on rural household operating income. In the short run,fiscal expenditure for agriculture has a positive and stronger effect on rural household operating income,transferred and property income,while a weak and negative impact on rural household operating income. Moreover,there exists a time-lag difference in the effect of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on the rural income of different sources. There is no time-lag difference in the growth of rural transferred and property income,while there is time-lag difference in the growth of rural household operating income and wage income.
From the perspective of the source of peasants' income,using the data about fiscal expenditure for agriculture and per capita net income of peasants from 1985 to 2015,based on VAR model and VEC model,this paper makes an investigation on the effects of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on rural income growth in the long run and short run by means of co-integration test,impulse response functions,variance decomposition and some other methods. The results show that in the long run,fiscal expenditure for agriculture has a positive but weak effect on the rural per capita net income,in which there are differences on the effect of four kinds of rural income,which are wage income,household operating income,transferred and property income. Fiscal rural expenditure has stronger impact on rural wage income,transferred and property income,but a weaker effect on rural household operating income. In the short run,fiscal expenditure for agriculture has a positive and stronger effect on rural household operating income,transferred and property income,while a weak and negative impact on rural household operating income. Moreover,there exists a time-lag difference in the effect of fiscal expenditure for agriculture on the rural income of different sources. There is no time-lag difference in the growth of rural transferred and property income,while there is time-lag difference in the growth of rural household operating income and wage income.
引文
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[13]吴其勉.全国财政支农资金对农民收入增长的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].广西财经学院学报,2013(3):112-118.
[14]关浩杰.我国农民收入结构变动与收入波动的关联性分析[J].南京审计学院学报,2013(3):17-23.
[2]李建军.城镇居民收入、财政支出与农民收入——基于1978—2006年中国数据的协整分析[J].农业技术经济,2008(4):34-40.
[3]王德祥,李建军.新农村建设、财政支出与农民收入增长——基于贵州省遵义市12个县的实证分析[J].农业经济问题,2009(2):42-47.
[4]杨林娟,戴亨钊.甘肃省财政支农支出与农民收入增长关系研究[J].农业经济问题,2008(3):99-102.
[5]茆晓颖,成涛林.财政支农支出结构与农民收入的实证分析——基于全口径财政支农支出2010—2012年江苏省13个市面板数据[J].财政研究,2014(12):68-71.
[6]刘旦.财政支农结构与农民收入增长的关系[J].北方经济,2006(23):35-37.
[7]李普亮.财政农业支出、农民增收与城乡居民收入差距——基于省级面板数据的实证[J].南方经济,2012(8):57-75.
[8]罗东,矫健.国家财政支农资金对农民收入影响实证研究[J].农业经济问题,2014(12):48-53.
[9]王敏,潘勇辉.财政农业投入与农民纯收入关系研究[J].农业经济问题,2007(5):99-105.
[10]汪海洋,孟全省,亓红帅,等.财政农业支出与农民收入增长关系研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2014(1):72-79.
[11]吴振鹏,胡艳.财政支农支出与农民收入关系的实证研究[J].江汉论坛,2013(1):58-62.
[12]章鹏.安徽省财政支农支出与农民收入关系研究[J].哈尔滨学院学报,2015(4):56-59.
[13]吴其勉.全国财政支农资金对农民收入增长的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].广西财经学院学报,2013(3):112-118.
[14]关浩杰.我国农民收入结构变动与收入波动的关联性分析[J].南京审计学院学报,2013(3):17-23.