中国农业发展韧性时空分异特征及影响因素研究
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摘要
提升农业发展韧性是保障农业供给和推动农业现代化的重要内容。基于2006-2015年省域尺度农业生产、生态和经济综合数据研究表明,各省域农业发展韧性均呈现优化趋势,但省际差异有所扩大;中国农业发展韧性存在显著空间关联特征且冷热点分布不均;空间互动状态下农村教育水平发展有利于强化农业总体韧性,产业结构升级对农业总体韧性直接效应和间接效应均为负。农均播种面积增长有助于提升本地农业生产和生态韧性,财政支农投入增长有助于提升本地农业经济韧性,城市化进程有助于提升本地农业生产韧性但削弱农业生态韧性。提升农业发展韧性并缩小区域间农业韧性发展差距需要多措并举,包括增强农业发展韧性的系统动力、完善农业发展韧性的区间统筹机制和因地制宜确定农业资金投入方向等。
To promote agricultural development resilience is important to the modernization of agriculture and the coordinated development in China.Based on the provincial agricultural production,ecology and economy data of 2006-2015 and spatial analysis method,the study shows that the whole agricultural development resilience in each province is increasing,but difference among provinces has expanded,and the agricultural development resilience in China has the characteristics of spatial association.The development of rural education is conducive to agricultural development resilience,the upgrading of the industrial structure has negative direct and indirect effects on agricultural development resilience.The growth of agricultural planting acreage can benefit local agricultural production and ecological resilience,financial support for agriculture helps to promote local agricultural economic resilience,urbanization helps to enhance local agricultural production resilience but weaken agricultural ecological resilience,the upgrading of the industrial structure has negative direct and indirect effects on local agricultural production and economic resilience,also has adverse effects on economic resilience of the surrounding areas.To promote the agricultural development resilience and narrow regional gap should take measures including strengthening the system dynamic of agricultural resilience development,improving co-ordination mechanism and taking measures according to local conditions to determine the direction of agricultural investment.
To promote agricultural development resilience is important to the modernization of agriculture and the coordinated development in China.Based on the provincial agricultural production,ecology and economy data of 2006-2015 and spatial analysis method,the study shows that the whole agricultural development resilience in each province is increasing,but difference among provinces has expanded,and the agricultural development resilience in China has the characteristics of spatial association.The development of rural education is conducive to agricultural development resilience,the upgrading of the industrial structure has negative direct and indirect effects on agricultural development resilience.The growth of agricultural planting acreage can benefit local agricultural production and ecological resilience,financial support for agriculture helps to promote local agricultural economic resilience,urbanization helps to enhance local agricultural production resilience but weaken agricultural ecological resilience,the upgrading of the industrial structure has negative direct and indirect effects on local agricultural production and economic resilience,also has adverse effects on economic resilience of the surrounding areas.To promote the agricultural development resilience and narrow regional gap should take measures including strengthening the system dynamic of agricultural resilience development,improving co-ordination mechanism and taking measures according to local conditions to determine the direction of agricultural investment.
引文
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[3]李彤玥.韧性城市研究新进展[J].国际城市规划,2017,32(5):15-25.
[4]孙阳,张落成,姚士谋.基于社会生态系统视角的长三角地级城市韧性度评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(8):151-158.
[5]邵亦文,徐江.城市韧性:基于国际文献综述的概念解析[J].国际城市规划,2015,30(2):48-54.
[6]李飞,曾福生.基于空间杜宾模型的农业基础设施空间溢出效应[J].经济地理,2016,36(6):142-147.
[7]曾福生,李飞.农业基础设施对粮食生产的成本节约效应估算[J].中国农村经济,2015(6):4-12.
[8] ADGER W N.Social and ecological resilience:Are they related[J].Progress in Human Geography,2000,24(3):347-364.
[9]杨建辉.农业化学投入与农业经济增长脱钩关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(9):1517-1527.
[10]陈梦远.国际区域经济韧性研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(11):1435-1444.
[11]孙晓欣,马晓冬.江苏省农业现代化发展的格局演化及驱动因素[J].经济地理,2016,36(10):123-130.
[12]龙冬平,李同昇,苗园园,等.中国农业现代化发展水平空间分异及类型[J].地理学报,2014,69(2):213-226.
[13]吴建民,任国荣,丁疆辉.县域城镇化水平综合测评及其动力构成分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):81-86.
[14]臧磊,杨山,姜石良.产业转型背景下农业经济与农业劳动力耦合研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(2):61-65.
[15]钟阳,丁一兵,赵宣凯.农业现代化发展区位分布的影响因素及空间溢出效应[J].南京社会科学,2012(4):53-58.
[16] ELHORST J P.Spatial panel data models[A].FISCHER M M,GETIS A.Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis[C].Berlin:Springer,2010.377-407.
[17] LESAGE P,PACE R K.Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M].BocaRaton,US:CRC Press Taylor&Francis Group,2009.
[18]李祥云,陈建伟.我国财政农业支出的规模、结构与绩效评估[J].农业经济问题,2010,32(8):20-25.
[19]王录仓,武荣伟,梁炳伟,等.中国农业现代化水平时空格局[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(12):1-7.