中国的和平崛起与中美贸易战
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摘要
1978年以来改革开放的40年是中国不断融入经济全球化与和平崛起的40年,是中国国际经济地位不断提升的40年。特朗普当选美国总统后,实施"全球收缩""美国优先"战略,视中国为美国的全球战略竞争对手,继而又以不公平贸易为由,挑起中美贸易战,为中国未来的和平崛起之路增加了许多不确定因素。回顾16世纪以来世界大国的历史兴衰可以看出,大国崛起并非一帆风顺,大国的崛起是天时、地利、人和三种因素综合作用的结果。面对目前的中美贸易战,中国必须谨记冷战时期美苏争霸、苏联解体的历史教训,坚持以科学的理论为指导、以市场化改革为导向,深化和完善经济体制,不断扩大面向全球化的对外开放,深度融入全球价值链,和平发展,互利共赢。大国崛起固然有规律可循,但每个国家又是独特的,中国只有从自身国情出发,才能走出属于自己的大国和平崛起的成功之路。
During the 40 years of reform and opening-up since 1978,China has been continuously integrating into economic globalization,achieving the rise of its international economic status and realizing its peaceful rise. After Trump was elected president of the United States,he took the strategy of"global contraction"and"America first",viewing China as the global strategic competitor of the United States. Now,he has provoked a trade war between the United States and China on the grounds of unfair trade,which adds a lot of uncertainty to China's future path of peaceful rise. How to deal with the US-China trade war? To realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is a difficult problem that China must solve. Looking back at the historical vicissitudes of the world's great powers since the sixteenth century,we can see that the rise of the great powers has not been all plain sailing,and it is the result of combining timeliness,topographical advantages and the support of the people. In the face of the current US-China trade war,China must bear in mind the historical lesson of the US-Soviet struggle for hegemony and the disastrous defeat of the Soviet Union during the Cold War,adhere to the guidance of scientific theories and market-oriented reforms,and improve the economic system. Meanwhile,China needs to continuously expand its opening-up oriented to globalization,fully integrate itself into global value chains,and achieve peaceful development and win-win results. History tells us that the rise of great powers has rules to follow,but each country is unique. Therefore,only by proceeding from its own national conditions,can China find its path to success in the peaceful rise of great powers.
During the 40 years of reform and opening-up since 1978,China has been continuously integrating into economic globalization,achieving the rise of its international economic status and realizing its peaceful rise. After Trump was elected president of the United States,he took the strategy of"global contraction"and"America first",viewing China as the global strategic competitor of the United States. Now,he has provoked a trade war between the United States and China on the grounds of unfair trade,which adds a lot of uncertainty to China's future path of peaceful rise. How to deal with the US-China trade war? To realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is a difficult problem that China must solve. Looking back at the historical vicissitudes of the world's great powers since the sixteenth century,we can see that the rise of the great powers has not been all plain sailing,and it is the result of combining timeliness,topographical advantages and the support of the people. In the face of the current US-China trade war,China must bear in mind the historical lesson of the US-Soviet struggle for hegemony and the disastrous defeat of the Soviet Union during the Cold War,adhere to the guidance of scientific theories and market-oriented reforms,and improve the economic system. Meanwhile,China needs to continuously expand its opening-up oriented to globalization,fully integrate itself into global value chains,and achieve peaceful development and win-win results. History tells us that the rise of great powers has rules to follow,but each country is unique. Therefore,only by proceeding from its own national conditions,can China find its path to success in the peaceful rise of great powers.
引文
(1)数据来源于中华人民共和国商务部网站,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn。
(2)邵永灵:《战争与大国崛起》,第21页,辽宁人民出版社2015年版。
(1)窦国庆:《大国转型:大国角色变化的成败》,第95页,中国民主法制出版社2015年版。
(2)李稻葵:《大国发展战略》,第9页,北京大学出版社2007年版。
(1)卢晨阳:《试论中国“和平崛起”的国际环境》,载《北京教育学院学报》2005年第1期。
(2)2001-2016年数据来源于中华人民共和国国家统计局网站,http://www.stats.gov.cn;2017年数据来源于中华人民共和国商务部网站,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn。
(3)数据来源于《2016年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》。
(4)陈继勇、刘卫平:《美国经济政策转向对全球经济的影响》,载《人民论坛·学术前沿》2017年第6期。
(5)陈继勇、陈大波:《特朗普经贸保护政策对中美经贸关系的影响》,载《经济学家》2017年第10期。
(1)陈继勇:《中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策》,载《武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018年第5期。
(2)沈国兵:《“美国利益优先”战略背景下中美经贸摩擦升级的风险及中国对策》,载《武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018年第5期;赵硕刚:《特朗普政府频繁发起对华贸易争端的动因、影响及对策建议》,载《国际贸易》2018年第5期;卢锋、李双双:《美国对华经贸政策转变与两国贸易战风险上升》,载《国际经济评论》2018年第3期。
(2)邵永灵:《战争与大国崛起》,第21页,辽宁人民出版社2015年版。
(1)窦国庆:《大国转型:大国角色变化的成败》,第95页,中国民主法制出版社2015年版。
(2)李稻葵:《大国发展战略》,第9页,北京大学出版社2007年版。
(1)卢晨阳:《试论中国“和平崛起”的国际环境》,载《北京教育学院学报》2005年第1期。
(2)2001-2016年数据来源于中华人民共和国国家统计局网站,http://www.stats.gov.cn;2017年数据来源于中华人民共和国商务部网站,http://www.mofcom.gov.cn。
(3)数据来源于《2016年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》。
(4)陈继勇、刘卫平:《美国经济政策转向对全球经济的影响》,载《人民论坛·学术前沿》2017年第6期。
(5)陈继勇、陈大波:《特朗普经贸保护政策对中美经贸关系的影响》,载《经济学家》2017年第10期。
(1)陈继勇:《中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策》,载《武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018年第5期。
(2)沈国兵:《“美国利益优先”战略背景下中美经贸摩擦升级的风险及中国对策》,载《武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2018年第5期;赵硕刚:《特朗普政府频繁发起对华贸易争端的动因、影响及对策建议》,载《国际贸易》2018年第5期;卢锋、李双双:《美国对华经贸政策转变与两国贸易战风险上升》,载《国际经济评论》2018年第3期。