贵州近50 a来夏季不同等级强降水事件特征研究
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摘要
利用贵州省内81个站点1967—2016年夏季的逐日观测资料,利用百分位法定义了不同等级的区域性强降水事件,并对近50 a来贵州夏季不同等级区域性强降水事件的气候特征进行了统计分析,结果表明:贵州夏季降水量及其年际变率大致呈东北向西南递增的分布特征;贵州夏季较强的4个等级(99%、95%、90%和75%)的区域性强降水事件降水阈值分别为37.1 mm、23.7 mm、17.9 mm和9.7 mm,其中75%分位的区域性强降水事件对贵州夏季降水量的贡献率最大,99%分位最小。在所有等级的强降水事件中,夏季中前期(6月上旬—7月中旬)的降水频数还是降水量均明显多于后期,99%分位、95%分位和90%分位尤为明显。近50 a来,贵州夏季99%分位区域性强降水事件的降水频数呈显著的增多趋势,其余强度的降水频数则表现出一定程度的减少。各个等级的强降水事件均存在2~4 a的活动周期,但出现的时段有所不同。此外,贵州夏季累计降水量峰值出现于10.7 mm/d所带来的181.9 mm,总体看来,各个范围内的日降水量所带来的累计降水量较为平均,均对贵州的夏季降水有同等重要的贡献。
Based on the observation data of 81 stations in Guizhou in the summer of 1967—2016,by using percentile method to definite the different grades of regional heavy rainfall events,and the climatic characteristics of regional precipitation events in different levels over Guizhou in recent 50 years were analyzed. the results show that the distribution characteristics of summer precipitation amount and it's interannual variability is roughly increasing from northeast to southwest. The precipitation threshold of regional precipitation events in different levels( 99%,95%,90% and 95%) were 37. 1 mm,23. 7 mm,17. 9 mm and 9. 7 mm,and the 75% regional heavy rainfall has the largest contribution rate to the summer precipitation in Guizhou,and the 99% is the smallest. In all grades of heavy precipitation events,both in frequency or amount of precipitation occurred in the middle and early summer( from early June to mid July) which was significantly higher than that in the late stage,especially in the 99%,95% and 90%places. In the past 50 years,the precipitation frequency of 99% points of regional heavy precipitation events is increasing significantly,and the rest shows a certain degree of reduction. There are 2—4 years of activity cycle in all grades of heavy rainfall events,but the period of occurrence is different. In addition,the peak value of summer total precipitation in Guizhou appears in 181. 9 mm caused by 10. 7 mm/d. Generally speaking,the total precipitation caused by diurnal precipitation is relatively average,which is equally important for the summer rainfall in Guizhou.
Based on the observation data of 81 stations in Guizhou in the summer of 1967—2016,by using percentile method to definite the different grades of regional heavy rainfall events,and the climatic characteristics of regional precipitation events in different levels over Guizhou in recent 50 years were analyzed. the results show that the distribution characteristics of summer precipitation amount and it's interannual variability is roughly increasing from northeast to southwest. The precipitation threshold of regional precipitation events in different levels( 99%,95%,90% and 95%) were 37. 1 mm,23. 7 mm,17. 9 mm and 9. 7 mm,and the 75% regional heavy rainfall has the largest contribution rate to the summer precipitation in Guizhou,and the 99% is the smallest. In all grades of heavy precipitation events,both in frequency or amount of precipitation occurred in the middle and early summer( from early June to mid July) which was significantly higher than that in the late stage,especially in the 99%,95% and 90%places. In the past 50 years,the precipitation frequency of 99% points of regional heavy precipitation events is increasing significantly,and the rest shows a certain degree of reduction. There are 2—4 years of activity cycle in all grades of heavy rainfall events,but the period of occurrence is different. In addition,the peak value of summer total precipitation in Guizhou appears in 181. 9 mm caused by 10. 7 mm/d. Generally speaking,the total precipitation caused by diurnal precipitation is relatively average,which is equally important for the summer rainfall in Guizhou.
引文
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[2]夏阳,管兆勇,孙一.晚秋前冬海洋性大陆区域向外长波辐射年际变化及其与云贵高原降水异常的联系[J].气象学报,2015,73(4):725-736.
[3]曹杰,李华宏,姚平,等.北半球夏季印度洋和太平洋水汽交汇区及其空间分异规律研究[J].自然科学进展,2009,19(3):302-309.
[4]王芬,曹杰,李腹广,等.贵州不同等级降水日数气候特征及其与降水量的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):145-154.
[5]袁文德,郑江坤,董奎.1962—2012年西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):766-772.
[6]丁文荣.西南地区极端降水的时空变化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(7):1 029-1 037.
[7]罗玉,范广洲,周定文,等.西南地区极端降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2015,35(5):581-586.
[8]杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1 333-1 340.
[9]Qian W,Lin X.Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,2005,Vol.90:193-207.
[10]鲍名.近50 a我国持续性暴雨的统计分析及其大尺度环流背景[J].大气科学,2007,31(5):779-792.
[11]贝耐芳,赵思雄.1998年“二度梅”期间突发强暴雨系统的中尺度分析[J].大气科学,2002,26(4):526-540.
[12]王建捷,陶诗言.1998梅雨锋的结构特征及形成与维持[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(5):526-534.
[13]刘海文,丁一汇.华北汛期日降水特性的变化分析[J].大气科学,2010,34(1):12-22.
[14]姚慧茹,李栋梁,王慧.1981-2012年西北东部夏季降水不同强度雨日变化及其环流特征的对比分析[J].气象学报,2017,75(3):384-399.
[15]管兆勇,任国玉.中国区域极端天气气候事件变化研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2012.
[16]Guan Z,Han J,Li M.Circulation patterns of regional mean daily precipitation extremes over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the boreal summer[J].Climate Res,2011,50(2):171-185.
[17]李传浩,刘宣飞,李智,等.华西秋雨区域性极端降水的环流特征[J].热带气象学报,2015,31(4):526-535.
[18]翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50 a温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(S1):1-10.
[19]夏阳,严小冬,龙园,等.GEV指数表征的贵州夏旱分布特征及干旱事件的异常环流特征[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2017,39(2):252-264.