近57 a 5—9月贵州极端强降水变化特征
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摘要
基于贵州1961—2017年82个观测站5—9月逐日降水资料,将处于95%位置的降水量作为极端降水阈值,分析极端降水日数和极端降水量的时空分布特征及其与海拔高度的关系。结果表明:极端降水阈值在南部和东北部地区较高,大于45.0 mm;西部和西北部较低,在35.0 mm左右。多年平均极端降水日数和极端降水量呈西高东低的空间分布特点,极端降水日数在3.6~4.6 d之间,极端降水量多处在200~360 mm之间,极端降水量占5—9月降水总量的30%左右。极端降水站次和极端降水量在各旬分布上呈单峰型,最大值均出现在6月下旬。极端降水日数和极端降水量在中南部表现出不同程度的增加趋势,中部增加趋势最为明显。极端降水量对总降水量的贡献率呈增加趋势。极端降水日数和极端降水量随海拔高度的增加而增大,尤其是极端降水日数受海拔高度的影响明显。
Based on daily precipitation data from 82 meteological stations during May-September in Guizhou Province from 1961 to2017,the 95 th percentile precipitation was defined as threshold of extreme precipitation. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation and their relationship with altitude were analyzed. The results are as follows: the extreme precipitation threshold was higher in the southern and northeastern part,which was more than 45 mm,while it was lower in the western and northwestern part of Guizhou Province,which was about 35 mm. The spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation were high in the west and low in the east. The extreme precipitation days ranged from3. 6 to 4. 6 days,and extreme precipitation ranged from 200 to 360 mm. Extreme precipitation accounted for 30% of the total precipitation during May-September. Ten days distribution of extreme precipitation stations and extreme precipitation presented single peak pattern,and their maximum value appeared in the late June. The trend of extreme rainfall days and extreme precipitation in the middle and southern part of Guizhou showed increase tendency,and in the middle it was the most obvious. Further analysis indicated that the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation showed an increase tendency. The extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation increased with the increase of altitude,especially the extreme precipitation days were affected by altitude.
Based on daily precipitation data from 82 meteological stations during May-September in Guizhou Province from 1961 to2017,the 95 th percentile precipitation was defined as threshold of extreme precipitation. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation and their relationship with altitude were analyzed. The results are as follows: the extreme precipitation threshold was higher in the southern and northeastern part,which was more than 45 mm,while it was lower in the western and northwestern part of Guizhou Province,which was about 35 mm. The spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation were high in the west and low in the east. The extreme precipitation days ranged from3. 6 to 4. 6 days,and extreme precipitation ranged from 200 to 360 mm. Extreme precipitation accounted for 30% of the total precipitation during May-September. Ten days distribution of extreme precipitation stations and extreme precipitation presented single peak pattern,and their maximum value appeared in the late June. The trend of extreme rainfall days and extreme precipitation in the middle and southern part of Guizhou showed increase tendency,and in the middle it was the most obvious. Further analysis indicated that the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation showed an increase tendency. The extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation increased with the increase of altitude,especially the extreme precipitation days were affected by altitude.
引文
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[2]马柱国,符淙斌,任小波,等.中国北方年极端温度的变化趋势与区域增暖的联系[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊):11-20.
[3]马柱国,华丽娟,任小波.中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊):69-74.
[4]胡豪然,毛晓亮,梁玲.近50年川渝地区夏季极端高温事件的时空演变特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(3):15-20.
[5]陈怀亮,张红卫,薛昌颖.中国极端天气事件与农业气象服务[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(3):67-77.
[6]李海花,李焕,葛洪燕,等.阿勒泰地区冬季极端最低气温变化分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(6):41-44.
[7]陈勇,陈阳,范昱.1951—2010年长沙市极端气温事件的变化特征[J].气象与环境科学,2012,35(3):41-44.
[8]王丽.河南省1961—2011年极端气温和极端气温事件的时空变化特征[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(2):31-36.
[9]翟薇,李肖霞.BCC_CSM1.1全球模式中极端气温变化的归因分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):25-32.
[10]秦秀丽,李丽平,魏丽云.1961—2010年山西极端气温年均发生频率的时空特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,8(2):59-64.
[11]王书冰,周顺武,马悦,等.近54年辛集市气温及降水变化特征[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(1):40-47.
[12]黄俊利,魏文寿,杨青,等.塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘极端降水变化趋势与突变特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):30-34.
[13]刘琳,陈静.新疆1961—2011年极端降水事件年内非均匀性特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013,7(1):53-59.
[14]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis:Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].New York:New York Cambridge University Press,2014.
[15]王志福,钱永甫.中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征[J].水科学进展,2009,20(1):1-9.
[16]FU G B,YU J J,YU X B,et al.Temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in China,1961-2009[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,487:48-59.
[17]周慧,蔡荣辉,尹冬德,等.2016年7月湖南一次极端持续性暴雨成因分析[J].干旱气象,2018,36(1):56-63.
[18]环海军,刘岩,孟伟,等.鲁中地区不同持续时间年最大降水特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):518-821.
[19]WAN B C,GAO Z Q,CHEN F,et al.Impact of Tibetan Plateau surface heating on persistent extreme precipitation events in southeastern China[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,2017,145(9):3485-3505.
[20]陈申鹏,孙国武.华南前汛期首场强降水个例分析[J].干旱气象,2018,36(1):50-55.
[21]CHEN Y,ZHAI P M.Precursor circulation features for persistent extreme precipitation in Central-Eastern China[J].Wea Forecasting,2014,29(2):226-240.
[22]WEI W G,YAN Z W,JONES P D.Potential predictability of seasonal extreme precipitation accumulation in China[J].J Hydrometeor,2017,18(4):1071-1080.
[23]王芬,曹杰,李腹广,等.贵州不同等级降水日数气候特征及其与降水量的关系[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):145-154.
[24]王芬,张娇艳,谷晓平,等.西太平洋副热带高压不同特征指数与贵州夏季降水的关系[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(4):348-356.
[25]伍红雨,王谦谦.近49年贵州降水异常的气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(1):65-71.
[26]王芬,杨若文,唐浩鹏,等.近48年贵州暴雨日数及降水总量的变化特征研究[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,35(增刊1):236-243.
[27]卢瑞荆,樊兰峰.1961—2008年贵州暴雨时空分布特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2010,4(3):17-21.
[28]LI Z,ZHENG F L,LIU W Z,et al.Spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events on the loess plateau of China during 1961-2007[J].Quaternary International,2010,226(1/2):92-100.
[29]陈学凯,徐建新,胡娟萍,等.1961—2012年贵州省极端降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(4):50-61.
[30]杨玮,程智.近53年江淮流域梅汛期极端降水变化特征[J].气象,2015,41(9):1126-1133.
[31]王雯燕,王丽,李国平,等.陕西省汛期极端降水时空演变特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(6):952-957.
[32]魏军,李婷,胡会芳,等.基于RClim Dex模型的石家庄市极端降水时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2016,34(4):623-630.