气候变化背景下贵州夏旱变化特征分析
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摘要
该文利用贵州境内1961—2015年84个站点的气象观测数据,得出贵州近55 a来具有气温增高、年总降雨量在平均值附近波动的气候变化特征。在此气候变化背景下,根据贵州省地方干旱标准(DB52_T_1030-2015),利用夏旱强度指数公式、小波分析,M-K检验等方法,对贵州夏旱变化特征进行分析。结果表明:近55 a来,夏旱强度指数随时间在平均值附近波动,夏旱强度指数多年平均值为132.35,达到中旱级别,且每年均出现不同程度的夏旱。2005年为夏旱强度指数的突变年,突变年后,多年平均值较突变前升高16;突变发生后,夏旱强度指数明显增强,指数大于145的区域明显增大,介于101～115之间的区域明显减少。夏旱强度指数具有20～21 a的主周期特征,且具有从西部到东部逐渐变强、东部重西部轻的特征。
Based on the meteorological observation data of 84 stations in Guizhou from 1961 to 2015, this paper concludes that the main climate change features of Guizhou in the past 55 years are the increase in temperature and the annual total rainfall fluctuates around the average value. In this climate background, according to the local drought standard of Guizhou province(db52_t_1030-2015).regional summer drought intensity index, wavelet analysis and M-K test were selected to analyze the change characteristics of summer drought. The results show that, in terms of time, the summer drought intensity index fluctuates around the average value with time in the past 55 years, the average value for many years is 132.35, reaching the moderate drought level, and there are different degrees of summer drought occur every year. The year 2005 was a mutation year for the summer drought intensity index. After the mutation, the multi-year average increased by 16 compared with that before the mutation. The intensity index of summer and drought increased significantly after the mutation, and the area with an index greater than 145 increased significantly, while the area between 101 and 115 decreased significantly. The major period of the summer drought intensity index is 20-21 years. Spatially, the main characteristic is gradually becoming stronger from the west to the east, the east is heavier than the west.
Based on the meteorological observation data of 84 stations in Guizhou from 1961 to 2015, this paper concludes that the main climate change features of Guizhou in the past 55 years are the increase in temperature and the annual total rainfall fluctuates around the average value. In this climate background, according to the local drought standard of Guizhou province(db52_t_1030-2015).regional summer drought intensity index, wavelet analysis and M-K test were selected to analyze the change characteristics of summer drought. The results show that, in terms of time, the summer drought intensity index fluctuates around the average value with time in the past 55 years, the average value for many years is 132.35, reaching the moderate drought level, and there are different degrees of summer drought occur every year. The year 2005 was a mutation year for the summer drought intensity index. After the mutation, the multi-year average increased by 16 compared with that before the mutation. The intensity index of summer and drought increased significantly after the mutation, and the area with an index greater than 145 increased significantly, while the area between 101 and 115 decreased significantly. The major period of the summer drought intensity index is 20-21 years. Spatially, the main characteristic is gradually becoming stronger from the west to the east, the east is heavier than the west.
引文
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[3] 徐德智,张杰,杨帆,等.基于SPI的黔东南州近52 a的干旱特征分析[J].贵州气象,2015,39(1):9-13.
[4] 姚正兰,赵大清,姚章福.遵义市近63 a气象干旱变化趋势及成因分析[J].贵州气象,2015,39(5):8-13.
[5] 夏阳,严小冬,龙园,等.GEV指数表征的贵州夏旱分布特征及干旱事件的异常环流特征[J].云南大学学报:自然科学版,2017,39(2):252-264.
[6] 尹晗.中国西南地区干旱气候特征及2009—2012年干旱分析[D].兰州大学,2013.
[7] 池再香,杜正静,陈忠明,等.2009—2010年贵州秋、冬、春季干旱气象要素与环流特征分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(1):176-184.
[8] 黄桂东,佘燕.黔南州2013年和2011年两次夏季干旱对比分析[J].贵州气象,2014,38(6):20-22.
[9] 严小冬,孙翔,杨春艳,等.贵州近50 a来夏季不同等级强降水事件特征研究[J].中低纬山地气象,2018(2).
[10]徐永灵,胡家敏,陈中云,等.DB52_T_1030-2015.贵州省干旱标准[S].