基于BP-CCA的贵州夏季降水与太平洋海温耦合关系
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摘要
利用贵州83个台站1979—2011年的夏季月降水资料、海温、气压场、风场等再分析格点资料及副高指数资料,利用点相关找出影响贵州夏季降水的海温关键区及关键时段,利用变形的典型相关分析(BP-CCA)方法对贵州夏季降水与关键区海温的耦合关系进行了分析,并对海温影响贵州夏季降水的可能机制进行了探讨。结果表明:1影响贵州夏季降水的海温关键区域为北太平洋及中东赤道太平洋,其中尤以加利福尼亚冷流区、北太平洋暖流区对贵州夏季降水的影响更为重要,关键时段为上一年7-9月;2BP-CCA第一对典型相关场分析结果表明:加利福尼亚冷流区海温与贵州夏季降水呈同位相变化,而北太平洋暖流区海温与贵州夏季降水呈反相位变化,关键区海温对贵州北部降水的耦合好于南部,而对西南部的耦合最差;3前期7-9月海温与副高强度指数的相关系数分布呈EI Nino型,与副高西伸脊线指数的相关系数分布在中低纬度西太平洋呈正相关,与中东赤道太平洋呈负相关,与副高脊点的相关系数与海温和副高的强度相关分布相反,在赤道中东太平洋为负相关区,西北太平洋为正相关区,海温分布型为LA Nina型。东北太平洋及中东赤道太平洋海温异常与贵州500h Pa气压场及风场显著正相关,而西北太平洋海温与贵州地区500 h Pa气压场及风场成负相关,为典型的EI Nino型。
Based on the precipitation of summer at 83 stations from 1979 to 2011 over Guizhou and the mean monthly reanalysis SST,pressure,wind data of NCEP / NCAR,the relationship between summer precipitation and the SST,in the Pacific Ocean are investigated in terms of empirical orthog onal function( EOF),composite analysis,BP- CCA,and so on. The results are as follows: 1the key SST region which influences lies in the north Pacific Ocean and middle- east Pacific Ocean,the key period is from July of the former year to September; 2the results of BP- CCA : the summer precipitation is increasing( decreasing) in the corresponding period when SST of the california cold curren from Jul to Sep were warmer( colder) than average,but when the SST of north pacific ocean warm current were warmer( colder) than average,the summer precipitation over Guizhou is decreasing( increasing),the influence of the key SST region to Guizhou is better in the middle- north of Guizhou,but,best in the west- south of Guizhou; 3 From Early July to September,the correlation coefficient distribution of SST and subtropical high strength index Was EL Nino,the correlation coefficient distribution of SST and subtropical high of west ridge line index in the low latitudes western pacific was positive,but which was negative in middle east equatorial pacific,the correlation coefficient distribution of SST and subtropical high of west ridge point index in the middle- east equatorial pacific was negative,but which was positive in west- north pacific. The distribution of SST was LA Nina. the correlation coefficient between northeast pacific and the middle east equatorial pacific SST and500 h Pa wind and pressure in Guizhou was significantly positive,the correlation coefficient between northwest pacific SST and 500 h Pa wind and pressure in Guizhou was negative,which was for typical EL Nino.
Based on the precipitation of summer at 83 stations from 1979 to 2011 over Guizhou and the mean monthly reanalysis SST,pressure,wind data of NCEP / NCAR,the relationship between summer precipitation and the SST,in the Pacific Ocean are investigated in terms of empirical orthog onal function( EOF),composite analysis,BP- CCA,and so on. The results are as follows: 1the key SST region which influences lies in the north Pacific Ocean and middle- east Pacific Ocean,the key period is from July of the former year to September; 2the results of BP- CCA : the summer precipitation is increasing( decreasing) in the corresponding period when SST of the california cold curren from Jul to Sep were warmer( colder) than average,but when the SST of north pacific ocean warm current were warmer( colder) than average,the summer precipitation over Guizhou is decreasing( increasing),the influence of the key SST region to Guizhou is better in the middle- north of Guizhou,but,best in the west- south of Guizhou; 3 From Early July to September,the correlation coefficient distribution of SST and subtropical high strength index Was EL Nino,the correlation coefficient distribution of SST and subtropical high of west ridge line index in the low latitudes western pacific was positive,but which was negative in middle east equatorial pacific,the correlation coefficient distribution of SST and subtropical high of west ridge point index in the middle- east equatorial pacific was negative,but which was positive in west- north pacific. The distribution of SST was LA Nina. the correlation coefficient between northeast pacific and the middle east equatorial pacific SST and500 h Pa wind and pressure in Guizhou was significantly positive,the correlation coefficient between northwest pacific SST and 500 h Pa wind and pressure in Guizhou was negative,which was for typical EL Nino.
引文
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[9]许可,严小冬.印度洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].贵州气象,2005,29(增刊):12-14.
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[15]李志方.太平洋海温与我国大陆降水的EOF分析[J].贵州气象,2012,36(1):18-20.
[16]舒国勇,高红梅,严小冬.贵州省铜仁市雨季开始期演变特征及环流分析[J].贵州气象,2012,36(5):9-13.
[17]杨洋,李光强.厄尔尼诺与贵州夏季降水的关系[J].贵州气象,1996,19(2):12-15.
[2]Bjerkness J,Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific,Mon.Wea.Rev.,1969,97:163-172.
[3]贾小龙,陈丽娟,李维京,等.BP-CCA方法用于中国冬季温度和降水的可预报性研究和降尺度季节预测[J].气象学报,2010,68(3):398-410.
[4]姚愚,晏红明,李卫红,等.云南5月降水量可预报性的时空分布[J].广东气象,2010,33(1):28-31.
[5]王冰,张健挺.云南降水场与太平洋海温场典型相关分析[J].云南大学学报,2002,24(6):428:430.
[6]胡桂芳,张苏平,谢考宪.EOF-CCA模型在山东季降水预测中的应用[J].气象,2000,26(7):12-16.
[7]金建德,严小冬,雷云,等.西北太平洋海温变化对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(2):192-197.
[8]许丹,王瑾.贵州夏季降水场与北太平洋海温场的非同步相关研究[J].贵州气象,2000,24(1):3-7.
[9]许可,严小冬.印度洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响[J].贵州气象,2005,29(增刊):12-14.
[10]Barnett T P.1983.Interaction of the monsoon and Pactific trade wind systems at interannual time scales,PartⅠ:The equatorial zone.Monthly Weather Review,111:756-773.
[11]Barnett T P,Preisendorfer R.1987.Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for united states surface air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis.Monthly Weather Review,115:1825-1850.
[12]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[13]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2004.
[14]North G R,Bell T,Cahalan R,et al.Sampling errors on the estimation of empirical orthogonal function.Mon.Wea.Rev.,1982,110:669-706.
[15]李志方.太平洋海温与我国大陆降水的EOF分析[J].贵州气象,2012,36(1):18-20.
[16]舒国勇,高红梅,严小冬.贵州省铜仁市雨季开始期演变特征及环流分析[J].贵州气象,2012,36(5):9-13.
[17]杨洋,李光强.厄尔尼诺与贵州夏季降水的关系[J].贵州气象,1996,19(2):12-15.