美国近期贸易政策转向及对中国影响
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摘要
在近期美国对华贸易政策充满变数的背景下,找到其不变的基本面要素并保持自身政策定力十分重要。本文剖析了近期频繁发生的贸易摩擦与之前奥巴马政府努力推动的TPP的关系,认为这些都属于贸易领域内的手段,需结合美国对华贸易目标、美国国内博弈力量对比以及区域贸易规则发展趋势分析。目前,TPP谈判仍是争夺贸易权益的重要"规则牌",特朗普政府退出TPP后,下一阶段贸易政策的关键在于是否重返TPP或转向非贸易领域热点,以巩固规则制定权和寻求更符合美国意图的全球化。未来在更多非贸易领域多热点的冲突级别和解决水平将直接影响美国贸易政策。大国崛起深刻影响着全球化格局的演变,中国构建人类命运共同体时需秉持习近平主席提出的互利共赢开放战略,在处理中美双边关系上应做好多领域接触和周旋的准备,特别是将贸易与非贸易领域打通进行通盘战略考量。
This paper aims to offer a new way of analysis,which combines recent trade frictions initiated by the U.S.and the TPP(the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement)promoted by Obama administration.TPP is still very important in terms of rules making for the U.S.,and the probabilities of reengaging with it should not be ruled out.More importantly,U.S.trade policies are becoming related with multiple hot issues in non-trade fields,with the purpose of achieving a more"America-first"version of globalization.In the next stage,the level of conflicts and effectiveness of resolution in more non-trade fields would have increasing impact on the trade policy of U.S.towards China.The rise of great power has profound influence on the evolution of globalization.In forging a community of shared future for all mankind,China should uphold mutual benefiting opening-up policy put forward by President Xi Jinping.In dealing with the Sino-U.S.bilateral relations,China should be prepared for consolidating strategies in both trade and non-trade areas.
This paper aims to offer a new way of analysis,which combines recent trade frictions initiated by the U.S.and the TPP(the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement)promoted by Obama administration.TPP is still very important in terms of rules making for the U.S.,and the probabilities of reengaging with it should not be ruled out.More importantly,U.S.trade policies are becoming related with multiple hot issues in non-trade fields,with the purpose of achieving a more"America-first"version of globalization.In the next stage,the level of conflicts and effectiveness of resolution in more non-trade fields would have increasing impact on the trade policy of U.S.towards China.The rise of great power has profound influence on the evolution of globalization.In forging a community of shared future for all mankind,China should uphold mutual benefiting opening-up policy put forward by President Xi Jinping.In dealing with the Sino-U.S.bilateral relations,China should be prepared for consolidating strategies in both trade and non-trade areas.
引文
[1]孙西辉,吕虹.亚太“双领导”与中美自贸区战略博弈[J].现代国际关系,2017(3):45-52.
[2]魏建国.TPP已是烂尾工程,中国不会接[J].中国外资,2017(5):25.
[3]钟红.美国宣布退出TPP,多边贸易合作面临新格局[J].国际金融研究,2018(1):15.
[4]朴英爱,金香兰.美国退出TPP对日本FTA战略的影响及其走势分析[J].现代日本经济,2017(4):32-45.
[5]Frieden J A,Lake D A.International political economy:perspectives on global power and wealth[M].Bedford/St.Martin's,2000:1-6.
[6]Barfield C,Irwin D A.The future of free trade[J].Business Economics,1997,32(2):26-31.
[7]Helpman E.Understanding global trade[J].Economics Books,2011,44(4):63-91.
[8]Rodrik D.The globalization paradox:democracy and the future of the world economy[M].New York:W.W.Norton and Company,2012:184-206.
[9]Frieden J A.The modern capitalist world economy:A historical overview[M].∥Mueller D.The Oxford Handbook of Capitalism.New York:Oxford University Press,2012:17-36.
[10]Alt J E,Gilligan M.The political economy of trading states:factor specificity,collective action problems and domestic political institutions[J].Journal of Political Philosophy,1994,2(2):165-192.
[11]Hufbauer G C.Rules of the international trade,investment,and financial systems:What they deliver,how they differ,the way forward[J].Journal of International Economic Law,2014,17(4):833-845.
[12]Lawrence R Z.Competing with regionalism by revitalizing the WTO[C].∥Meléndez-Ortiz R,Bellmann C,Mendoza M R.The Future and the WTO:Confronting the Challenges.A Collection of Short Essays.ICTSD Programme on Global Economic Policy and Institutions,Geneva,Switzerland,2012:38-41.
[13]Schwab S.Acknowledge Doha's demise and move on to save the WTO[EB/OL].(2011-05-28)https:∥voxeu.org/article/acknowledge-doha-s-demise-and-movesave-wto.
[14]赵江林.当前亚洲国家经济发展战略调整:背景、方向与影响[J].亚太经济,2013(4):14-20.
[15]王战.切实推动全球新合作[J].理论导报,2016(9):61.
[16]黄卫挺.全球正处于政治经济周期的拐点[J].中国经济周刊,2016(50):78-79.
[17]黄仁伟.从全球化、逆全球化到有选择的全球化[J].探索与争鸣,2017(3):40-42.
[18]Bhagwati J N,Krueger A O.U.S.trade policy:the infatuation with free trade areas,the dangerous drift to preferential trade agreements[M].Washington DC:The AEI Press,1995:4-6.
[19]Grieco J M,Ikenberry G J.State power and world markets[M].New York:W.W.Norton and Company,2003:25-31.
[20]Modelski G.The long cycle of global politics and the nation-state[J].Comparative Studies in Society&History,1978,20(2):214-235.
[21]Frieden J A.Global capitalism:Its fall and rise in the twentieth century[M].New York:W.W.Norton Company,2007:45-46.
(1)https:∥piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide
(1)https:∥piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/five-reasons-why-focus-trade-deficits-misleading
(2)https:∥piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-counterproductive-here-are
(3)https:∥piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/why-reconsidering-tpp-might-attract-trump
(4)同(1)
(5)数据来源:Wind资讯
(1)因自2010年美国第一次参与TPP协议谈判起国内阻碍重重,奥巴马政府只好通过推动小布什政府期间的TPA来确保在自己任期内能完成TPP谈判。TPA被称为“贸易快车道(Fast Track)”,因为它能大大缩短TPP谈判进程并降低不确定性,同时也增强美国的谈判对象对达成最终贸易协定的信心。
(2)按TPA规定,美国的谈判对象会认为谈判结果回到美国国内后将不再被美国国会拆开来逐条修改或否决。
(1)The American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organization(AFL-CIO)简称“劳联-产联”,其成员工会几乎代表了美国所有工会,涉及在岗和退休的劳工超过1200万,在美国政治特别是选举中具有很大影响力。
(1)主要基于三条条款:GATT第24条的解释条款、“授权条款”(GATT Enabling Clause)和1994年GATS《服务贸易总协定》第五条。
(2)由联合国贸易数据库整理而得。
(3)http:∥rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx
(1)这七国是日本、越南、新西兰、澳大利亚、新加坡、文莱和马来西亚。
(2)根据澳大利亚外交与贸易部计算将覆盖35亿人口,合计GDP达22.6万亿美金。http:∥dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/rcep/pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx
(1)http:∥world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0903/c1002-29511812.html.
[2]魏建国.TPP已是烂尾工程,中国不会接[J].中国外资,2017(5):25.
[3]钟红.美国宣布退出TPP,多边贸易合作面临新格局[J].国际金融研究,2018(1):15.
[4]朴英爱,金香兰.美国退出TPP对日本FTA战略的影响及其走势分析[J].现代日本经济,2017(4):32-45.
[5]Frieden J A,Lake D A.International political economy:perspectives on global power and wealth[M].Bedford/St.Martin's,2000:1-6.
[6]Barfield C,Irwin D A.The future of free trade[J].Business Economics,1997,32(2):26-31.
[7]Helpman E.Understanding global trade[J].Economics Books,2011,44(4):63-91.
[8]Rodrik D.The globalization paradox:democracy and the future of the world economy[M].New York:W.W.Norton and Company,2012:184-206.
[9]Frieden J A.The modern capitalist world economy:A historical overview[M].∥Mueller D.The Oxford Handbook of Capitalism.New York:Oxford University Press,2012:17-36.
[10]Alt J E,Gilligan M.The political economy of trading states:factor specificity,collective action problems and domestic political institutions[J].Journal of Political Philosophy,1994,2(2):165-192.
[11]Hufbauer G C.Rules of the international trade,investment,and financial systems:What they deliver,how they differ,the way forward[J].Journal of International Economic Law,2014,17(4):833-845.
[12]Lawrence R Z.Competing with regionalism by revitalizing the WTO[C].∥Meléndez-Ortiz R,Bellmann C,Mendoza M R.The Future and the WTO:Confronting the Challenges.A Collection of Short Essays.ICTSD Programme on Global Economic Policy and Institutions,Geneva,Switzerland,2012:38-41.
[13]Schwab S.Acknowledge Doha's demise and move on to save the WTO[EB/OL].(2011-05-28)https:∥voxeu.org/article/acknowledge-doha-s-demise-and-movesave-wto.
[14]赵江林.当前亚洲国家经济发展战略调整:背景、方向与影响[J].亚太经济,2013(4):14-20.
[15]王战.切实推动全球新合作[J].理论导报,2016(9):61.
[16]黄卫挺.全球正处于政治经济周期的拐点[J].中国经济周刊,2016(50):78-79.
[17]黄仁伟.从全球化、逆全球化到有选择的全球化[J].探索与争鸣,2017(3):40-42.
[18]Bhagwati J N,Krueger A O.U.S.trade policy:the infatuation with free trade areas,the dangerous drift to preferential trade agreements[M].Washington DC:The AEI Press,1995:4-6.
[19]Grieco J M,Ikenberry G J.State power and world markets[M].New York:W.W.Norton and Company,2003:25-31.
[20]Modelski G.The long cycle of global politics and the nation-state[J].Comparative Studies in Society&History,1978,20(2):214-235.
[21]Frieden J A.Global capitalism:Its fall and rise in the twentieth century[M].New York:W.W.Norton Company,2007:45-46.
(1)https:∥piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trump-trade-war-china-date-guide
(1)https:∥piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/five-reasons-why-focus-trade-deficits-misleading
(2)https:∥piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-are-counterproductive-here-are
(3)https:∥piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/why-reconsidering-tpp-might-attract-trump
(4)同(1)
(5)数据来源:Wind资讯
(1)因自2010年美国第一次参与TPP协议谈判起国内阻碍重重,奥巴马政府只好通过推动小布什政府期间的TPA来确保在自己任期内能完成TPP谈判。TPA被称为“贸易快车道(Fast Track)”,因为它能大大缩短TPP谈判进程并降低不确定性,同时也增强美国的谈判对象对达成最终贸易协定的信心。
(2)按TPA规定,美国的谈判对象会认为谈判结果回到美国国内后将不再被美国国会拆开来逐条修改或否决。
(1)The American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organization(AFL-CIO)简称“劳联-产联”,其成员工会几乎代表了美国所有工会,涉及在岗和退休的劳工超过1200万,在美国政治特别是选举中具有很大影响力。
(1)主要基于三条条款:GATT第24条的解释条款、“授权条款”(GATT Enabling Clause)和1994年GATS《服务贸易总协定》第五条。
(2)由联合国贸易数据库整理而得。
(3)http:∥rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicAllRTAList.aspx
(1)这七国是日本、越南、新西兰、澳大利亚、新加坡、文莱和马来西亚。
(2)根据澳大利亚外交与贸易部计算将覆盖35亿人口,合计GDP达22.6万亿美金。http:∥dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/rcep/pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx
(1)http:∥world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0903/c1002-29511812.html.