新附加值贸易视角下中日贸易隐含碳排放的再测算
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摘要
在全球生产网络分工不断深化的背景下,生产和消费活动的跨境分离变得日益普遍。原来以跨境和最终产品为标准的传统贸易统计方法,已无法对一国贸易利益进行准确描述。因此,基于传统贸易统计视角,运用竞争性投入产出法所测算的贸易隐含碳排放数据则会存在被高估的可能。本文运用新附加值贸易视角下的非竞争性投入产出法,在考虑技术异质性情形下,对2000—2014年中日两国27个行业部门的贸易隐含碳排放进行了再测算,结果显示:(1)中国对日本是贸易逆差国,但却是隐含碳排放的顺差国;与新附加值贸易统计方法相比,传统贸易统计方法高估了中国的贸易隐含碳排放;(2)就行业整体来看,在样本期内中国对日本出口贸易隐含碳被高估了约9.82亿t,进口贸易隐含碳则被高估了约3.92亿t;(3)从细分行业类别来看,在样本期内中国的采掘业、木材加工及家具制造业、交通运输业、租赁和商务服务业、金属制品业是被高估最为严重的行业部门,平均被高估率高达68.2%。
The cross-border separation of production and consumption activities has become increasingly common in the context of the deepening division of global production networks. The traditional trade statistic method, which is based on the standard of cross-border and final products,cannot accurately describe the trade interests of a country effectively. Therefore, based on the traditional trade statistics perspective, the use of competitive input-output methods to calculate the trade implied carbon emissions data will be overvalued. In this study, we used a newly developed non-competitive input-output method, incorporating value-added trade, to recalculate the intensity of embodied carbon emission in 27 trading industry sectors between China and Japan during 2000 to 2014. Our results reveal that although China experiences a huge trade deficit when trading with Japan, it is a net surplus country regarding carbon emissions embodied in China-Japan trade.Traditional trade modeling overestimates carbon emissions embodied in trade between China and Japan. On the whole, carbon emissions embodied in exports from China to Japan are overestimated by 982 million tons, carbon emissions contained in imports by China from Japan are overestimated by 392 million tons during the whole period. From a sub-industry perspectives, industries like mining, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, transportation, leasing and business services, and metal products in China are the most overestimated industry sectors, with an average overvalued rate of up to 68.2%.
The cross-border separation of production and consumption activities has become increasingly common in the context of the deepening division of global production networks. The traditional trade statistic method, which is based on the standard of cross-border and final products,cannot accurately describe the trade interests of a country effectively. Therefore, based on the traditional trade statistics perspective, the use of competitive input-output methods to calculate the trade implied carbon emissions data will be overvalued. In this study, we used a newly developed non-competitive input-output method, incorporating value-added trade, to recalculate the intensity of embodied carbon emission in 27 trading industry sectors between China and Japan during 2000 to 2014. Our results reveal that although China experiences a huge trade deficit when trading with Japan, it is a net surplus country regarding carbon emissions embodied in China-Japan trade.Traditional trade modeling overestimates carbon emissions embodied in trade between China and Japan. On the whole, carbon emissions embodied in exports from China to Japan are overestimated by 982 million tons, carbon emissions contained in imports by China from Japan are overestimated by 392 million tons during the whole period. From a sub-industry perspectives, industries like mining, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, transportation, leasing and business services, and metal products in China are the most overestimated industry sectors, with an average overvalued rate of up to 68.2%.
引文
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[19]肖艳,郑学党.全球价值链下的贸易增值与碳排放责任承担研究[J].理论探讨,2016,(4):172-176.[Xiao Y,Zheng X D.Research on the trade value increment and carbon emission responsibility under the global value chain[J].Theoretical Investigation,2016,(4):172-176.]
[20]潘安,魏龙.中国对外贸易隐含碳:结构特征与影响因素[J].经济评论,2016,(4):16-29.[Pan A,Wei L.Embodied carbon in china’s foreign trade:Structural features and influential factors[J].Economic Review,2016,(4):16-29.]
[21]钱志权,杨来科.东亚垂直分工对中国对外贸易隐含碳的影响研究-基于MRIO-SDA方法跨期比较[J].资源科学,2016,38(9):1801-1809.[Qian Z Q,Yang L K.The impact of East Asia vertical specialization on China’embodied carbon emissions:An inter-temporal MRIO-SDA analysis[J].Resources Science,2016,38(9):1801-1809.]
[22]WIOD Project of European Commision.World Input-Output Database[EB/OL].(2016-01-30)[2017-08-09].http://www.wiod.org/database/wiots16.
[23]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[EB/OL].(2016-12-30)[2017-07-08].http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol2.html.
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[25]Statistics Japan.Japan Statistical Yearbook[EB/OL].(2017-01-30)[2017-08-09].http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/index.htm.
[26]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,2009,(4):41-55.[Chen S Y.Energy consumption,CO2emission and sustainable development in Chinese industry[J].Economic Research Journal,2009,(4):41-55.]
[2]张二震,安礼伟.关于贸易顺差原因的理论思考[J].当代经济管理,2009,31(4):1-6.[Zhang E Z,An L W.Theoretical analysis on trade surplus[J].Contemporary Economic Management,2009,31(4):1-6.]
[3]岑丽君.中国在全球生产网络中的分工与贸易地位-基于Ti VA数据与GVC指数的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015,(1):3-13.[Cen L J.Division of labor and trade status in the global production network in China-a study based on Ti VA data and GVC index[J].Journal of International Trade,2015,(1):3-13.]
[4]Meng B,Peters G,Wang Z.Tracing CO2emissions in global value chains[J].USITC Discussion Papers,2014,(12):1-77.
[5]Japan Ministry of Finance.Trade Statistics of Japan Ministry of Finance[EB/OL].(2017-04-12)[2017-07-21].http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/tsdl_e.htm.
[6]Pan J,Phillips J,Chen Y.China's balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354-376.
[7]彭水军,张文城,孙传旺.中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量测算及影响因素研究[J].经济研究,2015,(1):168-182.[Peng S J,Zhang W C,Sun C W.China production factors on the side and consumer side estimates of carbon emissions and influence[J].Economic Research Journal,2015,(1):168-182.]
[8]Stehrer R.Trade in value added and the value added in trade[J].WIOD Working Paper,2012,(8):1-19.
[9]Koopman R,Wang Z,Wei S J.Tracing value-added and double counting in gross exports[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(2):459-494.
[10]潘文卿,李跟强.垂直专业化、贸易增加值与增加值贸易核算-全球价值链背景下基于国家(地区)间投入产出模型方法综述[J].经济学报,2014,1(4):188-207.[Pan W Q,Li G Q.Vertical specialization,trade value added and value-added trade accounting-a review based on the national(regional)input-output model approach in the context of the global value chain[J].China Journal of Economics,2014,1(4):188-207.]
[11]李昕,徐滇庆.中国外贸依存度和失衡度的重新估算-全球生产链中的增加值贸易[J].中国社会科学,2013,(1):29-55.[Li X,Xu D Q.Re-estimation of the degree of dependence and imbalance of China's foreign trade-value-added trade in the global production chain[J].Social Sciences in China,2013,(1):29-55.]
[12]葛明,林玲.基于附加值贸易统计的中国对外贸易失衡研究[J].国际经贸探索,2016,32(2):20-33.[Ge M,Lin L.Research on China's foreign trade imbalance based on value-added trade statistics[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2016,32(2):20-33.]
[13]江洪.金砖国家对外贸易隐含碳的测算与比较-基于投入产出模型和结构分解的实证分析[J].资源科学,2016,38(12):2326-2337.[Jiang H.Implied carbon in trade between BRIC countries based on input-output modeling and structural decomposition[J].Resources Science,2016,38(12):2326-2337.]
[14]Wu R,Geng Y,Dong H J,et al.Changes of CO2emissions embodied in China-Japan trade:drivers and implications[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112:4151-4158.
[15]吴献金,李妍芳.中日贸易对碳排放转移的影响研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(2):301-308.[Wu X J,Li Y F.Effects of carbon emission transfer in China Japan trade[J].Resources Science,2012,34(2):301-308.]
[16]马晶梅,王新影,贾红宇.中日贸易污染条件研究-基于MRIO模型的分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016,(2):100-110.[Ma J M,Wang X Y,Jia H Y.The pollution terms of trade between china and japan:an analysis based on the MRIO model[J].Journal of International Trade,2016,(2):100-110.]
[17]邓军.所见非所得:增加值贸易统计下的中国对外贸易特征[J].世界经济研究,2014,(1):35-40.[Deng J.See non-income:China's foreign trade characteristics under the value-added trade statistics[J].World Economy Studies,2014,(1):35-40.]
[18]向书坚,温婷.中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的重估算-基于新附加值贸易统计视角[J].国际经贸探索,2014,30(12):17-29.[Xiang S J,Wen T.The re-estimation of implicit carbon emissions of China's foreign trade-based on new value-added trade statistics[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2014,30(12):17-29.]
[19]肖艳,郑学党.全球价值链下的贸易增值与碳排放责任承担研究[J].理论探讨,2016,(4):172-176.[Xiao Y,Zheng X D.Research on the trade value increment and carbon emission responsibility under the global value chain[J].Theoretical Investigation,2016,(4):172-176.]
[20]潘安,魏龙.中国对外贸易隐含碳:结构特征与影响因素[J].经济评论,2016,(4):16-29.[Pan A,Wei L.Embodied carbon in china’s foreign trade:Structural features and influential factors[J].Economic Review,2016,(4):16-29.]
[21]钱志权,杨来科.东亚垂直分工对中国对外贸易隐含碳的影响研究-基于MRIO-SDA方法跨期比较[J].资源科学,2016,38(9):1801-1809.[Qian Z Q,Yang L K.The impact of East Asia vertical specialization on China’embodied carbon emissions:An inter-temporal MRIO-SDA analysis[J].Resources Science,2016,38(9):1801-1809.]
[22]WIOD Project of European Commision.World Input-Output Database[EB/OL].(2016-01-30)[2017-08-09].http://www.wiod.org/database/wiots16.
[23]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories[EB/OL].(2016-12-30)[2017-07-08].http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol2.html.
[24]国家统计局能源统计司.中国能源统计年鉴(2000-2014)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2015.[China Energy Statistical Yearbook(2000-2014).National Bureau of Statistics of China[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2001-2015.]
[25]Statistics Japan.Japan Statistical Yearbook[EB/OL].(2017-01-30)[2017-08-09].http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/index.htm.
[26]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,2009,(4):41-55.[Chen S Y.Energy consumption,CO2emission and sustainable development in Chinese industry[J].Economic Research Journal,2009,(4):41-55.]