基于路径相似的登陆热带气旋降水之动力-统计集合预报模型
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摘要
数值天气预报(NWP)过去几十年在热带气旋(TC)预报方面的最大进步是越来越准确的路径预报。对于登陆TC降水的预报,目前以数值模式为代表的技术手段预报能力还十分有限。围绕动力-统计结合之方法研究,初步发展了登陆热带气旋降水(LTP)预报的一种新方法:基于路径相似的登陆热带气旋降水之动力统计集合预报(LTP_DSEF)模型。该方法主要分为五步:TC路径预报、相似路径TC识别、其他特征相似性的判别、TC降水集合预报和最佳预报方案选择;涉及两个关键技术:TC降水分离的客观天气图分析法(OSAT)和TC路径相似面积指数(TSAI)。LTP DSEF模型对2012-2016年影响华南地区出现最大日降水量≥100 mm的21个TC的定量降水预报(QPF)试验结果显示,该模型对登陆TC过程降水的预报结果优于动力模式。登陆TC过程降水≥50 mm情况下,建模样本和独立样本平均TS评分均高于动力模式(EC、GFS、T639)相应的最好表现。对LTP_DSEF模型三个最佳方案的参数取值分析显示,起报时刻参数设定为最临近影响时刻即TC对陆地产生降水的前一天12:00 UTC、集合参数取最大值时预报效果稳定趋好。
Track forecasting is the greatest progress over past decades in numerical weather prediction(NWP) regarding the tropical cyclones(TCs). But the landfalling TC precipitation prediction capability of NWP models is still very limited. Focusing on combining dynamical and statistical methods, a new method named track-similarity-based Landfalling Tropical cyclone Precipitation( LTP) Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed. The LTP_DSEF model includes five steps:TC track prediction, identification of analogue TC tracks, identification of other analogue TC characteristics,ensemble forecasting of TC precipitation, and the best scheme selection. There are two key technologies involved: the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT) for partitioning TC precipitation and the objective TC Track Similarity Area Index(TSAI).The application of LTP_DSEF model for 21 TCs with accumulated LTP ≥100 mm in South China during 2012 —2016 reveals that the new method shows a better performance than the three NWP models(EC, GFS and T639) in predicting LTP. For ≥50 mm LTP forecasts, the threat score(TS) of LTP_DSEF model's results are superior to those of the three NWP models. Analysis of the values of the LTP_DSEF model's parameters for three best schemes shows that, the initial time designed to be the closest to the impact time, i. e., 1200 UTC on the previous day with precipitation on land and the ensemble parameter being the maximum are both beneficial to ideal forecasts.
Track forecasting is the greatest progress over past decades in numerical weather prediction(NWP) regarding the tropical cyclones(TCs). But the landfalling TC precipitation prediction capability of NWP models is still very limited. Focusing on combining dynamical and statistical methods, a new method named track-similarity-based Landfalling Tropical cyclone Precipitation( LTP) Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed. The LTP_DSEF model includes five steps:TC track prediction, identification of analogue TC tracks, identification of other analogue TC characteristics,ensemble forecasting of TC precipitation, and the best scheme selection. There are two key technologies involved: the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique(OSAT) for partitioning TC precipitation and the objective TC Track Similarity Area Index(TSAI).The application of LTP_DSEF model for 21 TCs with accumulated LTP ≥100 mm in South China during 2012 —2016 reveals that the new method shows a better performance than the three NWP models(EC, GFS and T639) in predicting LTP. For ≥50 mm LTP forecasts, the threat score(TS) of LTP_DSEF model's results are superior to those of the three NWP models. Analysis of the values of the LTP_DSEF model's parameters for three best schemes shows that, the initial time designed to be the closest to the impact time, i. e., 1200 UTC on the previous day with precipitation on land and the ensemble parameter being the maximum are both beneficial to ideal forecasts.
引文
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冯利华,2000.登陆台风降水预报[J].海洋通报,19(2):75-79. Feng L H,2000. Precipitation forecast of landing typhoon[J]. Marine Sci Bull,19(2):75-79(in Chinese).
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麻素红,吴俞,瞿安祥,等,2013. T213与T639模式热带气旋预报误差对比[J].应用气象学报,23(2):167-173. Ma S H,WU Y,Qu A X, et al,2013. Comparative analysis on tropical cyclone numerical forecast errors of T213 and T639 models[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,23(2):167-173(in Chinese).
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岳彩军,陈佩燕,雷小途,等,2006.登陆台风短时定量降水预报方法初探[J].气象科技,34(1):7-11. Yue C J,Chen P Y,Lei X T,et al,2006. Preliminary study of short-term quantitative precipitation forecast method for landfalling typhoon[J]. Meteor Sci Technol,34(1):7-11(in Chinese).
张亚洲,李盛林,邓文彬,等,2011.基于多模式短期集合预报技术的热带气旋降水预报试验[J].气象与减灾研究,34(2):26-33.Zhang Y Z, Li S L, Deng W B, et al, 2011. Experiment of tropical cyclone precipitation forecast based on multi-model short-range ensemble forecasting technique[J]. Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,34(2):26-33(in Chinese).
钟元,余晖,滕卫平,等,2009.热带气旋定量降水预报的动力相似方案[J].应用气象学报,20(1):17-27. Zhong Y,Yu H,Teng W P,et al,2009. A dynamic similitude scheme for tropical cyclone quantitative precipitation forecast[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,20(1):17-27(in Chinese).
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丑纪范,1986.为什么要动力-统计相结合?——兼论如何结合[J].高原气象,5(4):367-372. Chou J F,1986. Why a combination of dynamic and statistic?-How to combine them[J]. Plateau Meteor,5(4):367-372(in Chinese).
冯利华,2000.登陆台风降水预报[J].海洋通报,19(2):75-79. Feng L H,2000. Precipitation forecast of landing typhoon[J]. Marine Sci Bull,19(2):75-79(in Chinese).
贡九鼎,钮学新,李慧武,等,1995.华东台风降水预报的一种集成[J].大气科学,19(1):101-110. Gong J D,Niu X X,Li H W,et al,1995. Forecast epitomized of typhoon's precipitation in East China[J]. Sci Atmos Sinica, 19(1):101-110(in Chinese).
黄伟,余晖,梁旭东,2009.GRAPES-TCM对登陆热带气旋降水的预报及其性能评估[J].气象学报,67(5):892-901. Huang W,Yu H,Liang X D,2009. Evaluation of GRAPES-TCM rainfall forecast for China landfalling tropical cyclone in 2006[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica, 67(5):892-901(in Chinese).
李博,赵思雄,2009.用SMAT建立台风暴雨预报模型的试验研究[J].气象,35(6):3-12. Li B,Zhao S X,2009. Development of forecasting model of typhoon type rainstorm by using SMAT[J]. Meteor Mon,35(6):3-12(in Chinese).
麻素红,吴俞,瞿安祥,等,2013. T213与T639模式热带气旋预报误差对比[J].应用气象学报,23(2):167-173. Ma S H,WU Y,Qu A X, et al,2013. Comparative analysis on tropical cyclone numerical forecast errors of T213 and T639 models[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,23(2):167-173(in Chinese).
任福民,Gleason B,Easterling D,2001.一种识别热带气旋降水的数值方法[J].热带气象学报,17(3):308-313. Ren F M,Gleason B,Easterling D,2001. A numerical technique for partitioning cyclone tropical precipitation[J]. J Trop Meteor, 17(3):308-313(in Chinese).
任福民,吴国雄,王小玲,等,2011.近60年影响中国之热带气旋[M].北京:气象出版社:15-30. Ren F M,Wu G X,Wang X L,et al,2011. Tropical Cyclones Affecting China over the Last 60Years[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:15-30(in Chinese).
任福民,向纯怡,2017.登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望[J].海洋气象学报,37(4):8-18. Ren F M,Xiang C Y,2017. Review and prospect of researches on the prediction of precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones[J]. J Marine Meteor,37(4):8-18(in Chinese).
王太微,陈德辉,2007.数值预报发展的新方向——集合数值预报[J].气象研究与应用,28(1):6-12,24. Wang T W,Chen D II,2007. A brief overview of ensemble forecasts[J]. J Meteor Res Appl, 28(1):6-12,24(in Chinese).
许映龙,2009. 0908号台风“莫拉克”数值模拟分析[C]//2009年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会论文集.北京:中国气象学会.Xu Y L,2009. Numerical simulation analysis of Typhoon Morakot(0908)[C]//Proceedings of the Cross-strait Symposium on Meteorological Science and Technology(2009),Beijing:Chinese Meteorological Society(in Chinese).
薛根元,张建海,陈红梅,等,2007.不同对流参数化方案在登陆浙闽台风降水预报中的比较试验[J].高原气象,26(4):765-773. Xue G Y,Zhang J II,Chen H M,et al,2007. The comparisons of different convective parameterization schemes applying precipitation's forecast of typhoon landing on Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces[J]. Plateau Meteor,26(4):765-773(in Chinese).
袁炳,费建芳,王云峰,等,2010.应用ATOVS资料和非对称Bogus资料对登陆台风韦帕的4DVAR数值模拟分析[J].气象,36(5):13-20. Yuan B,Fei J F, Wang Y F, et al, 2010. 4DVAR numerical simulation analysis using ATOVS data and asymmetrical Bogus data on landing Typhoon Weipha[J]. Meteor Mon, 36(5):13-20(in Chinese).
岳彩军,陈佩燕,雷小途,等,2006.登陆台风短时定量降水预报方法初探[J].气象科技,34(1):7-11. Yue C J,Chen P Y,Lei X T,et al,2006. Preliminary study of short-term quantitative precipitation forecast method for landfalling typhoon[J]. Meteor Sci Technol,34(1):7-11(in Chinese).
张亚洲,李盛林,邓文彬,等,2011.基于多模式短期集合预报技术的热带气旋降水预报试验[J].气象与减灾研究,34(2):26-33.Zhang Y Z, Li S L, Deng W B, et al, 2011. Experiment of tropical cyclone precipitation forecast based on multi-model short-range ensemble forecasting technique[J]. Meteor Disaster Reduction Res,34(2):26-33(in Chinese).
钟元,余晖,滕卫平,等,2009.热带气旋定量降水预报的动力相似方案[J].应用气象学报,20(1):17-27. Zhong Y,Yu H,Teng W P,et al,2009. A dynamic similitude scheme for tropical cyclone quantitative precipitation forecast[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,20(1):17-27(in Chinese).
Bauer P,Thorpe A,Brunet G,2015. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction[J]. Nature,525(7567):47-55.
Cangialosi J P,Franklin J L,2015. 2014 National hurricane center forecast verification report[R]. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center.
Chen L S,Li Y,Cheng Z Q,2010. An overview of research and forecasting on rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones[J]. Adv Atmos Sci,27(5):967-976.
Chou J F,1974. A problem of using past data in numerical weather forecasting[J]. Sci Sin,17(6):814-825.
Ebert E E,Turk M,Kusselson S J,et al,2011. Ensemble tropical rainfall potential(eTRaP)forecasts[J]. Wea Forecasting, 26(2):213-224.
Fang X Q,Kuo Y II,2013. Improving ensemble-based quantitative precipitation forecasts for topography-enhanced typhoon heavy rainfall over Taiwan with a modified probability-matching technique[J]. Mon Weat Rev,141(11):3908-3932.
Fraedrich K,Raible C C, Sielmann F,2003. Analog ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian region[J]. Wea Forecasting, 18(1):3-11.
Hong J S, Fong C T, Hsiao L F,et al,2015. Ensemble typhoon quantitative precipitation forecasts model in Taiwan[J]. Wea Forecasting,30(1):217-237.
Hsiao L F, Yang M J, Lee C S, et al, 2013. Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan[J].J Hydrol,506:55-68.
Kidder S Q,Knaff J A,Kusselson S J,et al,2005. The tropical rainfall potential(TRaP)technique. Part I:description and examples[J]. Wea Forecasting,20(4):456-464.
Langmack II,Fraedrich K,Sielmann F,2012. Tropical cyclone track analog ensemble forecasting in the extended Australian Basin:NWP combinations[J]. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 138(668):1828-1838.
Lee C S,Huang L R,Shen H S,et al, 2006. A climatology model for forecasting typhoon rainfall in Taiwan[J]. Nat Hazards,37(1/2):87-105.
Li Q L,Lan H P,Chan J C L,et al,2015. An operational statistical scheme for tropical cyclone induced rainfall forecast[J]. J Trop Meteor,21(2):101-110.
Liu C C,2009. The influence of terrain on the tropical rainfall potential technique in Taiwan[J]. Wea Forecasting,24(3):785-799.
Lonfat M,Rogers R,Marchok T,et al,2007. A parametric model for predicting hurricane rainfall[J]. Mon Wea Rev,135(9):3086-3097.
Marchok T,Rogers R,Tuleya R,2007. Validation schemes for tropical cyclone quantitative precipitation forecasts:evaluation of operational models for U. S. landfalling cases[J]. Wea Forecasting,22(4):726-746.
Marks F D,Kappler G,Demaria M,2002. Development of a tropical cyclone rainfall climatology and persistence(R-CLIPER)model[C]//Preprints of the 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. San Diego, CA:AMS:327-328.
National Hurricane Center, 2017. National hurricane center forecast verification[EB/OL]. http://www. nhc. noaa. gov/verification/verify6. shtml?[2017-04-04].
Ren F M,Wang Y M,Wang X L,2007. Estimating tropical cyclone precipitation from station observations[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 24(4):700-711.
Ren F M,Qiu W Y,Ding C C,et al,2017. An objective index of tropical cyclone track similarity and its preliminary application in the prediction of the precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones[J]. Quart J Roy Meteo Soc,33(6):1725-1742.
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