重庆2017年秋季降水异常成因分析
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摘要
2017年秋季,重庆降水出现前期异常偏多而后期异常偏少的特征。为分析造成降水季节内极端异常原因,使用1961年以来重庆34个气象台站秋季(9月上旬至11月下旬)逐日降水数据、NCEP/NECA和NOAA逐日高度场、风场、水汽场、海温场等再分析资料,采用相关、合成等统计诊断方法,分析了2017年重庆地区秋季降水出现季节内异常变化的主要原因。环流的诊断分析表明:2017年重庆地区秋季降水出现明显旱涝转折、降水前多后少,其成因是由于副热带高压长时间维持在重庆长江沿线及长江中下游一线,中高纬度维持双阻型,即乌拉尔山高压脊发展,同时鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压的建立和维持,使其西部低槽东移缓慢,导致了重庆地区9月至10月上中旬强降水频发、降水异常偏多。10月下旬西太平洋副热带高压异常减弱南退,尤其在11月其闭合单体完全退出大陆,低纬度地区的高压坝切断了水汽的向北输送;中高纬度呈现西正东负的距平分布型,贝加尔湖以东至鄂霍茨克海以西的大范围地区为负高度距平分布,负距平南界位于我国河套北部地区,冷空气路径偏东偏北,不利于降水继续偏多,发生由异常多向异常少的转折。此外海温强迫场的分析表明:初秋中高纬度出现的双阻型环流异常可能与前期和同期西北太平洋海温的偏暖有关;而前期热带印度洋海温的全区一致增暖模态和后期赤道东太平洋海温的异常可能是导致副热带地区大气环流(西太平洋副热带高压)异常的主要原因和外强迫因子。
This paper analyzes the precipitation in Chongqing that exhibits positive anomaly during the early autumn and negative anomaly during the late autumn in 2017.To diagnose the cause of this extreme anomaly in the precipitation season,this paper uses daily precipitation data observed by 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing since 1961(from early September to late November), NCEP/NECA and NOAA daily height field,wind field, water vapor field,sea temperature field and other reanalysis data.Using correlation,composite and other statistical diagnostic methods,we analyze the abnormal changes in the autumn precipitation in Chongqing in 2017.The diagnosis of related circulations shows that in 2017,precipitation in Chongqing witnessed a sharp transition from droughts to floods.The cause of this situation is that the subtropical high maintained along the section of Yangtze River in Chongqing and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for a long time.At the same time the development of the double-resistance type(the high-ridge of the Ural Mountains),together with the establishment and maintenance of the Okhotsk Sea high,slowed the eastward movement of the low trough in the west,resulting in frequent heavy precipitation and abnormal precipitation amount from September to early and mid-October in Chongqing.In late October,the West Pacific subtropical high anomaly weakened southward.In November,when the closed monomer completely exited from the mainland,the high dam in the low latitude cut off the northward transport of water vapor.The mid-high latitude subtropical high showed a west-positive east-negative type anomalous distribution.The area from the east of Lake Baikal to the west of the Okhotsk Sea exhibited a negative anomaly.The south edge of negative anomaly was located in the northern part of Hetao Region.The cold air path was eastward and northward,not conducive to the continued precipitation.Thusa transition from above normal to below normal precipitation occurred.The analysis of the SST anomaly field indicates that the double-restricted circulation anomaly in the early-autumn and high latitudes may be related to the leading and current warming of the SST and northwestern Pacific Ocean.The SST of tropical Indian Ocean Basin-Wide Mode of the whole region and SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific may be the main causes and external forcing factor of the anomalous atmospheric circulation(West Pacific subtropical high)in the subtropical region in the late autumn.
This paper analyzes the precipitation in Chongqing that exhibits positive anomaly during the early autumn and negative anomaly during the late autumn in 2017.To diagnose the cause of this extreme anomaly in the precipitation season,this paper uses daily precipitation data observed by 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing since 1961(from early September to late November), NCEP/NECA and NOAA daily height field,wind field, water vapor field,sea temperature field and other reanalysis data.Using correlation,composite and other statistical diagnostic methods,we analyze the abnormal changes in the autumn precipitation in Chongqing in 2017.The diagnosis of related circulations shows that in 2017,precipitation in Chongqing witnessed a sharp transition from droughts to floods.The cause of this situation is that the subtropical high maintained along the section of Yangtze River in Chongqing and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for a long time.At the same time the development of the double-resistance type(the high-ridge of the Ural Mountains),together with the establishment and maintenance of the Okhotsk Sea high,slowed the eastward movement of the low trough in the west,resulting in frequent heavy precipitation and abnormal precipitation amount from September to early and mid-October in Chongqing.In late October,the West Pacific subtropical high anomaly weakened southward.In November,when the closed monomer completely exited from the mainland,the high dam in the low latitude cut off the northward transport of water vapor.The mid-high latitude subtropical high showed a west-positive east-negative type anomalous distribution.The area from the east of Lake Baikal to the west of the Okhotsk Sea exhibited a negative anomaly.The south edge of negative anomaly was located in the northern part of Hetao Region.The cold air path was eastward and northward,not conducive to the continued precipitation.Thusa transition from above normal to below normal precipitation occurred.The analysis of the SST anomaly field indicates that the double-restricted circulation anomaly in the early-autumn and high latitudes may be related to the leading and current warming of the SST and northwestern Pacific Ocean.The SST of tropical Indian Ocean Basin-Wide Mode of the whole region and SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific may be the main causes and external forcing factor of the anomalous atmospheric circulation(West Pacific subtropical high)in the subtropical region in the late autumn.
引文
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高荣,宋连春,钟海玲,2018.2016年汛期中国降水极端特征及与1998年对比[J].气象,44(5):699-703.Gao R,Song L C,Zhong H L,2018.Characteristics of extreme precipitation in china during the 2016 flood season and comparison with the 1998 situation[J].Meteor Mon,44(5):699-703(in Chinese).
胡泊,申红燕,王晓娟,等,2018.东北亚地区初夏、盛夏和传统夏季降水特征及环流型的异同性研究[J].大气科学,42(1):109-123.Hu P,Shen H Y,Wang X J,et al,2018.A study on characteristics of precipitation and circulation pattern in early summer,midsummer and conventional summer in Northeast Asia[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,42(1):109-123(in Chinese).
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李春晖,潘蔚娟,李霞,等,2017.华南春季降水及其季节内振荡强度的年代际变化特征[J].高原气象,36(2):491-500.Li C H,Pan W J,Li X,et al,2017.Interdecadal variation characteristics of spring rainfall and its intraseasonal oscillation intensity in South China[J].Plateau Meteor,36(2):491-500(in Chinese).
刘丽,曹杰,何大明,等,2011.中国低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化及其成因研究[J].大气科学,35(3):435-443.Liu L,Cao J,He D M,et al,2011.The interdecadal variability of heavy rainfall events in flood season over low-latitude highlands of China and associated causes[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,35(3):435-443(in Chinese).
刘扬,刘屹岷,2016.我国西南地区秋季降水年际变化的空间差异及其成因[J].大气科学,40(6):1215-1226.Liu Y,Liu Y M,2016.Spatial pattern and causes of interannual variability of autumn rainfall in Southwest China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(6):1215-1226(in Chinese).
刘芸芸,李维京,艾婉秀,等,2012,月尺度西太平洋副热带高压指数的重建与应用[J].应用气象学报,23(4):414-423.Liu Y Y,Li W J,Ai W X,et al,2012.Reconstruction and application of the monthly Western Pacific subtropical high indices[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,23(4):414-423(in Chinese).
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聂羽,孙冷,李淸泉,等,2016.2015年秋季我国气候异常及暖湿成因分析[J].气象,42(4):507-513.Nie Y,Sun L,Li Q Q,et al,2016.Possible causes for the warmer and wetter autumn in 2015in China[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):507-513(in Chinese).
任国玉,封国林,严中伟,2010.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):337-353.Ren G Y,Feng G L,Yan Z W,2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Clim Environ Res,15(4):337-353(in Chinese).
孙小婷,李清泉,王黎娟,2017.我国西南地区夏季长周期旱涝急转及其大气环流异常[J].大气科学,41(6):1332-1342.Sun X T,Li Q Q,Wang L J,2017.Characteristics of long-cycle abrupt drought-flood alternations in Southwest China and anomalies of atmospheric circulation in summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,41(6):1332-1342(in Chinese).
武炳义,张人禾,2011.东亚夏季风年际变率及其与中、高纬度大气环流以及外强迫异常的联系[J].气象学报,69(2):219-233.Wu B Y,Zhang R H,2011.Interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and its association with the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes and external forcing[J].Acta Meteor Sin,69(2):219-233(in Chinese).
吴国雄,刘屹岷,宇婧婧,等,2008.海陆分布对海气相互作用的调控和副热带高压的形成[J].大气科学,32(4):720-740.Wu G X,Liu Y M,Yu J J,et al,2008.Modulation of land-sea distribution on air-sea interaction and formation of subtropical anticyclones[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):720-740(in Chinese).
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.Yang W,Xu M,Zhou S W,et al,2017.Spatial-temporal variation of extreme precipitation events from June to July over Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin and the circulation anomalies[J].Plateau Meteor,36(3):718-735(in Chinese).
姚世博,姜大膀,范广洲,2017.中国降水的季节性[J].大气科学,41(6):1191-1203.Yao S B,Jiang D B,Fan G Z,2017.Seasonality of precipitation over China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,41(6):1191-1203(in Chinese).
袁媛,高辉,柳艳菊,2017.2016年夏季我国东部降水异常特征及成因简析[J].气象,43(1):115-121.Yuan Y,Gao H,Liu Y J,2017.Analysis of the characteristics and causes of precipitation anomalies over eastern China in the summer of 2016[J].Meteor Mon,43(1):115-121(in Chinese).
张夏琨,牛若芸,卢晶,2017.2016年10月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,43(1):122-128.Zhang X K,Niu R Y,Lu J,2017.Analysis of the October 2016 atmospheric circulation and weather[J].Meteor Mon,43(1):122-128(in Chinese).
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