长沙地区雷暴特征及雷击灾害风险区划分析
|
摘要
基于长沙地区4个气象台站1951—2013年的雷暴观测资料和2009—2017年闪电监测数据,分析了本区域内雷暴时空分布特征及规律;同时,结合长沙地区2002—2017年的雷击灾害、人口密度等数据,选取雷击密度、雷击灾害频度、生命易损模数及经济易损模数构造了雷电灾害易损性评估模型,对长沙地区进行了雷电灾害风险区划。结果表明,长沙地区年平均雷暴日数总体呈下降趋势,下降倾向率为1.858 d/10 d;雷暴季节性变化明显,以夏季出现最多,约占全年雷暴日数的46.6%;存在5～6年,13～14年的年际尺度显著变化周期;长沙县、宁乡县为雷击灾害极高易损区,望城区为高易损区。
Based on the thunderstorm observation data of four meteorological stations' in Changsha region from 1951 to 2013,and the lightning monitoring data from 2009 to 2017,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of lightening in Changsha were analyzed. At the same time,combined with data from lightning strikes from 2002 to 2017 in Changsha and population densities,the disaster risk regionalization was made by using the index of lightning strike density,frequency of lightning disasters,life vulnerability modulus and economic vulnerability modulus. The result show that,the average lightening days in Changsha has generally declined by the rate of 1.858 d/10 years. The seasonal variation is obvious with more in summer which accounts for 46.66% in total. The days of thunder shows strong period pattern in 5～6 a years and 13～14 years.Changsha county is an extremely vulnerable area for lightning strikes,Changsha and Ningxiang are highly vulnerable areas.
Based on the thunderstorm observation data of four meteorological stations' in Changsha region from 1951 to 2013,and the lightning monitoring data from 2009 to 2017,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of lightening in Changsha were analyzed. At the same time,combined with data from lightning strikes from 2002 to 2017 in Changsha and population densities,the disaster risk regionalization was made by using the index of lightning strike density,frequency of lightning disasters,life vulnerability modulus and economic vulnerability modulus. The result show that,the average lightening days in Changsha has generally declined by the rate of 1.858 d/10 years. The seasonal variation is obvious with more in summer which accounts for 46.66% in total. The days of thunder shows strong period pattern in 5～6 a years and 13～14 years.Changsha county is an extremely vulnerable area for lightning strikes,Changsha and Ningxiang are highly vulnerable areas.
引文
[1]马明,张义军,孟青,等.我国的雷电灾害及其防御[J].中国应急管理,2008(12):55-57.
[2]崔海华,吴孟恒,扈勇.河北省雷电监测预警预报与减灾对策研究[J].中国科技成果,2014(22):74-75..
[3]程林,余漠全,黄洋,等.安庆市雷暴气候统计特征研究[J].农业灾害研究,2017,7(1):17-19.
[4]胡先锋.江西省雷暴活动时空变化特征及雷电灾害的研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2007.
[5]郑羡仪,唐兵兵.梧州近30年雷暴特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2012,33(S1):174-175.
[6]李京校,李家启,肖稳安,等.重庆市雷暴气候变化特征分析[J].热带地理,2011,31(2):171-177.
[7]时慧宇.云南省城镇居民收入与消费关系的统计分析——基于小波分析理论[D].昆明:云南财经大学,2014.
[8]杨云芸,姚蓉,王晓雷,等.近40年长沙地区雷暴天气的气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(4):59-64.
[9]贺芳芳,邵步粉.上海地区低温、雨雪、冰冻灾害的风险区划[J].气象科学,2011,31(1):33-39.
[10]李密,邱东凤,时娟.淄博市雷电灾害易损性风险评估及区划[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):177-182.
[11]王惠,邓勇,尹丽云,等.云南省雷电灾害易损性分析及区划[J].气象,2007,33(12):83-87.
[12]田艳婷,吴孟恒,史锋旗,等.河北省雷电灾害易损性综合评估与区划[J].气象科技,2012,40(3):507-512.
[13]陈可裕,刘刚,尹波.龙泉驿区雷电灾害风险调查评估与区划[J].中国科技纵横,2016(21):161-162.
[14]尹娜,肖稳安.区域雷灾易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(4):441-448.
[15]钱兴成,陆强,王佳.常用多指标综合评价方法述评[A].中国水污染控制战略与政策创新研讨会论文集[C].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
[16]刘玉清,崔忠强,贾宝山,等.基于层次分析模型的吉林省雷电灾害风险评估及区划[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2014,31(3):121-124.
[17]袁湘玲,纪华,程琳.基于层次分析模型的黑龙江省雷电灾害风险区划[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(3):279-283.
[2]崔海华,吴孟恒,扈勇.河北省雷电监测预警预报与减灾对策研究[J].中国科技成果,2014(22):74-75..
[3]程林,余漠全,黄洋,等.安庆市雷暴气候统计特征研究[J].农业灾害研究,2017,7(1):17-19.
[4]胡先锋.江西省雷暴活动时空变化特征及雷电灾害的研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2007.
[5]郑羡仪,唐兵兵.梧州近30年雷暴特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2012,33(S1):174-175.
[6]李京校,李家启,肖稳安,等.重庆市雷暴气候变化特征分析[J].热带地理,2011,31(2):171-177.
[7]时慧宇.云南省城镇居民收入与消费关系的统计分析——基于小波分析理论[D].昆明:云南财经大学,2014.
[8]杨云芸,姚蓉,王晓雷,等.近40年长沙地区雷暴天气的气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(4):59-64.
[9]贺芳芳,邵步粉.上海地区低温、雨雪、冰冻灾害的风险区划[J].气象科学,2011,31(1):33-39.
[10]李密,邱东凤,时娟.淄博市雷电灾害易损性风险评估及区划[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):177-182.
[11]王惠,邓勇,尹丽云,等.云南省雷电灾害易损性分析及区划[J].气象,2007,33(12):83-87.
[12]田艳婷,吴孟恒,史锋旗,等.河北省雷电灾害易损性综合评估与区划[J].气象科技,2012,40(3):507-512.
[13]陈可裕,刘刚,尹波.龙泉驿区雷电灾害风险调查评估与区划[J].中国科技纵横,2016(21):161-162.
[14]尹娜,肖稳安.区域雷灾易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(4):441-448.
[15]钱兴成,陆强,王佳.常用多指标综合评价方法述评[A].中国水污染控制战略与政策创新研讨会论文集[C].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
[16]刘玉清,崔忠强,贾宝山,等.基于层次分析模型的吉林省雷电灾害风险评估及区划[J].气象水文海洋仪器,2014,31(3):121-124.
[17]袁湘玲,纪华,程琳.基于层次分析模型的黑龙江省雷电灾害风险区划[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(3):279-283.