夏季西太平洋副热带高压指数的统计预测模型
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摘要
利用国家气候中心提供的1959-2013年74项环流指数和美国NOAA气候预测中心提供的Nino 3区海温指数等气候指数,采用相关分析和最优子集的原理选择预测因子,建立统计预测模型,并对夏季西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)各特征指数的年际增量进行预测,进而预测实际特征指数。为检验该预测模型的预测效果,对2001-2013年西太副高指数进行了独立样本回报检验,结果表明:该预测模型能够较好地回报出2001-2013年夏季西太副高脊线、西伸脊点以及强度指数,回报指数与观测的距平相关系数分别为0.64,0.67和0.78,预测准确率分别达到84.63%,76.92%,69.23%。因此,该预测模型对汛期气候预测具有潜在的应用价值。
By using the 74 circulation indices provided by National climate center,the Nino 3 indices and other climate indices provided by NOAA climate forecast center,a physical and statistical forecast model is established to predict the western pacific subtropical high(WPSH) indices in summer.The correlation analysis and the optimal subset regression are used to choose the predictors.The predictand is the year-to-year increment of the WPSH indices in summer.Then the real indices can be calculated.The hindcast of WPSH indices during 2001-2013 is carried out to evaluate the performance of this forecast model.The results show that the forecast model can predict the ridge line,the western ridge point,and the intensity indices of the WPSH successfully in most years.The anomaly correlation coefficients between the observed ridge line,the western ridge point and the intensity indices and the prediction during 2001-2013 are 0.64,0.67 and 0.78,respectively.The accuracy rate of the predicted ridge line,the western ridge point and the intensity indices during these 13 years reach up to84.63%,76.92%and 69.23%.Therefore,this forecast model will be of great value in the climate prediction during the flood season.
By using the 74 circulation indices provided by National climate center,the Nino 3 indices and other climate indices provided by NOAA climate forecast center,a physical and statistical forecast model is established to predict the western pacific subtropical high(WPSH) indices in summer.The correlation analysis and the optimal subset regression are used to choose the predictors.The predictand is the year-to-year increment of the WPSH indices in summer.Then the real indices can be calculated.The hindcast of WPSH indices during 2001-2013 is carried out to evaluate the performance of this forecast model.The results show that the forecast model can predict the ridge line,the western ridge point,and the intensity indices of the WPSH successfully in most years.The anomaly correlation coefficients between the observed ridge line,the western ridge point and the intensity indices and the prediction during 2001-2013 are 0.64,0.67 and 0.78,respectively.The accuracy rate of the predicted ridge line,the western ridge point and the intensity indices during these 13 years reach up to84.63%,76.92%and 69.23%.Therefore,this forecast model will be of great value in the climate prediction during the flood season.
引文
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[11]董兆俊,张韧,余丹丹,等.西太平洋副热带高压活动指数的动力相关因子诊断判别[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4):335-340.
[12]张韧.基于前传式网络逼近的太平洋副热带高压活动的诊断预测[J].大气科学,2001,25(5):650-660.
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[20]施能.气象统计预报中的多元分析方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1992:52-58.
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[25]杨辉,陈隽,孙淑清.冬夏季环流隔季相关的数值试验[J].大气科学,2005,29(3):396-408.
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[27]Chen Wen,Graf H F,Huang Ronghui.The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2000,17(1):48-60.
[28]杨绚,李栋梁.东亚副热带冬季风南边缘的确定及其变化特征[J].高原气象,2012,31(3):668-675.
[29]汪靖,何金海,刘宣飞,等.江淮梅雨建立的年际变化及其前期强影响信号分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):85-92.
[30]李崇银.气候动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:120-122.
[31]黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖地的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1993,18(2):141-151.
[32]姚愚,严华生.前期太平洋海温与6-8月西太平洋副高指数的关系[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(5):483-489.
[33]郭玲,何金海,祝从文.影响长江中下游夏季降水的前期潜在预报因子评估[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):337-349.
[34]曹杰,李湘瑞,应俊.20世纪70年代末前后北半球冬季对流层遥相关的时空演变研究[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):283-296.
[35]蔡学湛,温珍治,吴滨.西太平洋副高与ENSO的关系及其对福建雨季降水分布的影响[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(1):36-42
[2]张庆云.陶诗言.夏季西太平洋副热带高压北跳及异常的研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(5):539-548.
[3]陶诗言.中国夏季副热带天气系统若干问题的研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1963.
[4]廖荃荪,赵振国.东亚阻塞形势与西太平洋副高的关系及其对我国降水的影响[C].长期天气预报论文集.北京:气象出版社,1990:125-134.
[5]姚愚,严华生,程建刚.主汛期(6-8月)副高各指数与中国160站降雨的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(6):651-661.
[6]俞亚勋,王式功,钱正安,等.夏半年西太副高位置与东亚季风雨带(区)的气候联系[J].高原气象,2013,32(5):1510-1525,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00033.
[7]王传辉,杨玮,周顺武,等.201 1年初夏长江中下游地区旱涝急转前后环流和水汽条件分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):210-220,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00173.
[8]邹立维,周天军,吴波,等.GAMIICIiPAS试验对夏季西太平洋副热带高压的预测[J].大气科学,2009,33(5):959-970.
[9]艾悦秀,陈兴芳.夏季副高与海温的相互关系及副高预测[J].热带气象学报,2000,16(1):1-8.
[10]曹杰,尤亚磊,黄玮.夏季西太副高脊面年际变化与太平洋海温关系的研究[J].高原气象,2009,28(2):411-418.
[11]董兆俊,张韧,余丹丹,等.西太平洋副热带高压活动指数的动力相关因子诊断判别[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4):335-340.
[12]张韧.基于前传式网络逼近的太平洋副热带高压活动的诊断预测[J].大气科学,2001,25(5):650-660.
[13]刘科峰,张韧,洪梅,等.基于最小二乘支持向量机的副热带高压预测模型[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(3):354-359.
[14]杨杰,封国林,赵俊虎,等.夏季西太平洋副热带高压的客观定量化预测及其对汛期降水的指示[J].气象学报,2012,70(5):1032-1044.
[15]张恩恕,毛玉英,韩志刚,等.西太平洋副热带高压夏季特征量的多层递阶长期预报模型--副高特征量长期预报(一)[J].高原气象,1984,4(1):69-74.
[16]范可,王会军,Choi Young-Jean.一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型[J].科学通报,2007,52(24):2900-2905.
[17]Li Chongyin,Sun Shuqing,Ma Mingquan.Origin of the TBOinteraction between anomalous East-Asian winter monsoon and ENSO cycle[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2001,18(4):554-566.
[18]Meehl G A.The south Asian monsoon and the tropospheric biennial oscillation[J].J Climate,1997,10(8):1921-1943.
[19]Chang C P,Li T.A theory for the tropical tropospheric biennial oscillation[J].J Atmos Sci,2000,57(14):2209-2224.
[20]施能.气象统计预报中的多元分析方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1992:52-58.
[21]Garside M J.The best sub-set in multiple regression analysis[J].Applied Statistics,1965,14:196-200.
[22]Fumival G M.All possible regressions with less computation[J].Technometrics,1971,13(2):403-408.
[23]Fumival G M,Wilson R W.Regressions by leaps and bounds[J].Technometrics,1974,16(4):499-511.
[24]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:194-200.
[25]杨辉,陈隽,孙淑清.冬夏季环流隔季相关的数值试验[J].大气科学,2005,29(3):396-408.
[26]Huang Ronghui,Chen Wen,Yang Bangliang,et al.Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2004,21(3):407-424.
[27]Chen Wen,Graf H F,Huang Ronghui.The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2000,17(1):48-60.
[28]杨绚,李栋梁.东亚副热带冬季风南边缘的确定及其变化特征[J].高原气象,2012,31(3):668-675.
[29]汪靖,何金海,刘宣飞,等.江淮梅雨建立的年际变化及其前期强影响信号分析[J].科学通报,2009,54(1):85-92.
[30]李崇银.气候动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:120-122.
[31]黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖地的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1993,18(2):141-151.
[32]姚愚,严华生.前期太平洋海温与6-8月西太平洋副高指数的关系[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(5):483-489.
[33]郭玲,何金海,祝从文.影响长江中下游夏季降水的前期潜在预报因子评估[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):337-349.
[34]曹杰,李湘瑞,应俊.20世纪70年代末前后北半球冬季对流层遥相关的时空演变研究[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):283-296.
[35]蔡学湛,温珍治,吴滨.西太平洋副高与ENSO的关系及其对福建雨季降水分布的影响[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(1):36-42