蚌埠市农村老人子女数和健康状况对养老意愿的影响分析
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摘要
目的在人口老龄化背景下,研究农村地区老人子女数和健康状况对老人养老意愿的影响,为政府制定养老政策提供科学依据。方法在2016年利用分层随机抽样法抽取蚌埠市李楼乡农村老人(≥60岁)进行问卷调查,共计收回有效问卷249份,实际纳入研究244份。针对老人子女数和健康状况对其养老意愿的影响,分别进行单因素χ~2检验(或Kruskal-Wallis秩和检验)和多因素Logistic回归分析。结果 4个子女的老人居多[70(28.7%)],老人健康状况处于中等水平。本地区老人养老意愿选择上家庭养老占多数[178(73.0%)],95%置信区间:67.2%~78.3%。在养老意愿单因素分析中,子女数(χ~2=2.803,P=0.246)和健康状况(自评:χ~2=5.385,日常生活活动能力:χ~2=2.987,生活满意:χ~2=2.111,均P>0.05)在对老人养老意愿选择上差异均无统计学意义。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,子女数(P>0.05)对老人养老意愿选择上差异仍无统计学意义。健康状况自变量中,只有自评健康差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),其OR值为8.802,95%置信区间:1.030~75.210。结论子女的多少对老人养老意愿的选择无影响,本研究给我们一个启示,今后的研究可以从子女数上转向社会经济状况(如子女经济状况、婚姻状况等)。家庭养老在老人心中仍占有重要地位。自评健康状况差的老人更倾向选择家庭养老方式,所以可以进一步提高家庭护理水平,让老人更好地享受晚年生活。
Objective With aging population,this paper aims to study the impact of the number of children and physical condition of the elderly on the willingness of elderly support in rural areas and provide scientific basis for making elderlysupport policy. Methods A stratified random sampling method is used to investigate the rural elderly( ≥60) with questionnaires in Lilou Township,Bengbu City in 2016. A total of 249 valid questionnaires were collected and 244 were included in the study. To study impact of the number of children and physical condition of the elderly on willingness of elderly support,one-way χ~2 analysis( or Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test) is adopted for single factor analysis while logistic regression analysis is adopted for multiple factors analysis. Results The elderly having 4 children are accounting for the majority 70( 28. 7%) and their health condition is in middle level. The willing to be supported by the family is the highest,which is 178( 73. 0%) 95% CI: 67. 2%-78. 3%. According to single factor analysis the number of children( χ~2= 2. 803,P = 0. 246) and physical condition( self-evaluation: χ~2= 5. 385,activities of daily living( ADL) : χ~2=2. 987,life satisfaction: χ~2= 2. 111,with P > 0. 05) had no statistically significant impact on the willingness of elderly support. According to multiple factors logistic regression analysis,the number of children's impact on the willingness of elderly support isn't statistically significant( P > 0. 05). Among the independent variables of physical condition,only when elderly evaluate themselves healthy( P < 0. 05) is statistically significant and OR = 8. 802,95% CI: 1. 030-75. 210. Conclusions The number of children has no impact on the willingness of elderly support. Researches,henceforth,should be transferred from the number of children into social economic status( e. g,economic condition of children,marital status,and so on). Support from family remains favorable to the elderly. The elderly with poor health selfevaluation tends to be supported by family. Hence,improving home care can offer them more satisfied lives.
Objective With aging population,this paper aims to study the impact of the number of children and physical condition of the elderly on the willingness of elderly support in rural areas and provide scientific basis for making elderlysupport policy. Methods A stratified random sampling method is used to investigate the rural elderly( ≥60) with questionnaires in Lilou Township,Bengbu City in 2016. A total of 249 valid questionnaires were collected and 244 were included in the study. To study impact of the number of children and physical condition of the elderly on willingness of elderly support,one-way χ~2 analysis( or Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test) is adopted for single factor analysis while logistic regression analysis is adopted for multiple factors analysis. Results The elderly having 4 children are accounting for the majority 70( 28. 7%) and their health condition is in middle level. The willing to be supported by the family is the highest,which is 178( 73. 0%) 95% CI: 67. 2%-78. 3%. According to single factor analysis the number of children( χ~2= 2. 803,P = 0. 246) and physical condition( self-evaluation: χ~2= 5. 385,activities of daily living( ADL) : χ~2=2. 987,life satisfaction: χ~2= 2. 111,with P > 0. 05) had no statistically significant impact on the willingness of elderly support. According to multiple factors logistic regression analysis,the number of children's impact on the willingness of elderly support isn't statistically significant( P > 0. 05). Among the independent variables of physical condition,only when elderly evaluate themselves healthy( P < 0. 05) is statistically significant and OR = 8. 802,95% CI: 1. 030-75. 210. Conclusions The number of children has no impact on the willingness of elderly support. Researches,henceforth,should be transferred from the number of children into social economic status( e. g,economic condition of children,marital status,and so on). Support from family remains favorable to the elderly. The elderly with poor health selfevaluation tends to be supported by family. Hence,improving home care can offer them more satisfied lives.
引文
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[17]王彦方,王旭涛.影响农村老人生活满意度和养老模式选择的多因素分析——基于对留守老人的调查数据[J].中国经济问题,2014(5):19-29.
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[19]韩耀风,覃文峰,陈炜,等.adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型应用于老年人养老意愿影响因素研究的探讨[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(1):18-22.
[20]郭亚南.农村中年留地农民养老意愿及影响因素分析[D].重庆:西南大学,2015.
[21]黄晓玲,陈炜,翁陈子恒,等.厦门市城乡老年人养老意愿及其影响因素分析[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(5):729-732.
[2]余杰,Mark W.Rosenberg,程杨.北京市老年人居家养老满意度与机构养老意愿研究[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(12):1577-1585.
[3]赵锋.不同子女数量农户的生计资本对养老意愿的影响——基于甘肃省5县区调查[J].西北民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015(3):99-106.
[4]刘萌,马伟,伊向仁,等.济南市城市社区不同自理能力老年人养老意愿及其影响因素[J].中国公共卫生,2016,32(10):1301-1308.
[5]梅春英,徐学华.老龄化背景下山东省农村家庭养老模式优化的路径分析[J].德州学院学报,2016,32(5):90-93,100.
[6]杨帆,杨成钢.家庭结构和代际交换对养老意愿的影响[J].人口学刊,2016,38(1):68-76.
[7]张文娟,魏蒙.中国老年人的失能水平到底有多高?——多个数据来源的比较[J].人口研究,2015,39(3):34-47.
[8]张开宁,高矗群,莫国芳,等.云南省瑞丽傣族农村老人日常生活活动能力初步研究[J].中华全科医学,2016,14(11):1789-1791,1885.
[9]张莉.对我国高龄老人居住方式影响因素的分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016,30(1):92-102.
[10]姚瑶,薛鹏,姚杏娟,等.常州市老年人养老意愿分析及完善家庭养老模式初探[J].中国农村卫生事业管理,2017,37(6):630-632.
[11]周亚东,郭明贤.西安市城乡老年人养老意愿对比[J].中国老年学杂志,2016,36(7):1732-1734.
[12]王莹莹,董梦雅,骆晓霞,等.浙江省农村老年人养老意愿调查[J].社区医学杂志,2016,14(23):19-22.
[13]周胜芳.城乡居民养老需求状况调查分析——以温州为例[J].经济论坛,2014(10):72-76.
[14]陶涛,丛聪.老年人养老方式选择的影响因素分析——以北京市西城区为例[J].人口与经济,2014(3):15-22.
[15]杨琦.农村养老方式选择影响因素分析[D].杭州:浙江财经大学,2015.
[16]张争艳,王化波.珠海市老年人口养老意愿及影响因素分析[J].人口学刊,2016,38(1):88-94.
[17]王彦方,王旭涛.影响农村老人生活满意度和养老模式选择的多因素分析——基于对留守老人的调查数据[J].中国经济问题,2014(5):19-29.
[18]孙鹃娟,沈定.中国老年人口的养老意愿及其城乡差异——基于中国老年社会追踪调查数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2017(2):11-20.
[19]韩耀风,覃文峰,陈炜,等.adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型应用于老年人养老意愿影响因素研究的探讨[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(1):18-22.
[20]郭亚南.农村中年留地农民养老意愿及影响因素分析[D].重庆:西南大学,2015.
[21]黄晓玲,陈炜,翁陈子恒,等.厦门市城乡老年人养老意愿及其影响因素分析[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(5):729-732.