考虑非合意产出的省际水资源利用效率及驱动因素研究——基于SE-SBM与Tobit模型的考察
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摘要
水资源短缺与水生态恶化成为制约我国水资源利用的主要问题,提高水资源利用效率是解决水资源可持续利用的根本途径,也契合经济新常态与供给侧改革,研究水资源利用效率问题具有必要性和现实意义。国家相继实施最严格水管理制度,确立水资源利用三条红线,从水资源消耗总量和强度采取水资源管理双控行动,将"河长制"提升为全国性治水方略。本文选取资本、劳动力、用水总量为投入指标,以实际GDP与废水排放总量作为期望与非期望产出,利用非期望产出SE-SBM模型估算2003—2015年各省市水资源利用效率,并采用Tobit模型探究水资源利用效率的驱动因素。结果显示,水资源利用效率总体上呈现先下降后上升的U型发展趋势,虽研究时限内绝大多数省区水资源利用效率均有大幅度提升,东、中、西部水资源利用效率存在显著差异,京津沪等省份水资源利用效率最高,西北省份效率最低,通过变异系数分析比较得出区域差异呈现不断收敛的趋势,水资源利用效率驱动因素上,地区经济的发展水平、水资源的丰富程度、工农业结构、政府干预强度与水资源利用效率呈现负相关,进出口需求对其影响并不显著。提高水资源利用效率,国家要充分考虑各区域的实际情况,因地制宜地制定水资源利用效率目标及水资源管理政策,应大力发展节水技术,发挥价格杠杆在水资源利用效率中的作用,利用正向空间溢出效应,推动跨区域合作,以弱代强,推动省际水资源治理协同发展。
The shortage of water resources and water ecological deterioration has become the main factors that restrict the utilization of water resources in China.Improving the utilization efficiency of water resources is the fundamental way to solve sustainable utilization of water resources as well as the core of the new normal and supply-side reform,so it is of necessity and practical significance to study water resources utilization efficiency.The most stringent water management system was implemented and‘three red lines' of utilization of water resources were established by Chinese government.The dual control of water resources in total consumption and intensity was adopted and ‘river-chief'system was promoted as national water governance strategy.In this paper,the capital,labor and water consumption were selected as input indexes,and the real GDP and waste water discharge were selected as desirable and undesirable output indexes.SE-SBM model was adopted to estimate inter-province water resource utilization efficiency and Tobit Model was used to explore the influence factors in 2003-2015.The research showed that the utilization efficiency presented‘U'shape and the utilization efficiency was improved in most of provinces ultimately.However significant differences existed between eastern,middle and western regions of China,the efficiency is highest in Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,while the efficiency is the lowest in most of northwest provinces.The regional disparity of water utilization efficiency showed the significant convergence trend through coefficients of variation method.The regional economic development level,the abundance of water resource,the structure of industry and agriculture,the intensity of government intervention have significantly negative effects on water utilization efficiency while the demands of exports and imports had no significant influence on water utilization efficiency.The state should take full account of the actual conditions in various regions,and make goals of water use efficiency and water resources management policy according to local conditions.Simultaneously water-saving technology should be vigorously developed and the lever of price should be exerted in improving water resources utilization efficiency.The positive spatial spillover effects should be exploited to promote cross-regional cooperation,thereby pushing forward inter-provincial collaborative development of water resources management.
The shortage of water resources and water ecological deterioration has become the main factors that restrict the utilization of water resources in China.Improving the utilization efficiency of water resources is the fundamental way to solve sustainable utilization of water resources as well as the core of the new normal and supply-side reform,so it is of necessity and practical significance to study water resources utilization efficiency.The most stringent water management system was implemented and‘three red lines' of utilization of water resources were established by Chinese government.The dual control of water resources in total consumption and intensity was adopted and ‘river-chief'system was promoted as national water governance strategy.In this paper,the capital,labor and water consumption were selected as input indexes,and the real GDP and waste water discharge were selected as desirable and undesirable output indexes.SE-SBM model was adopted to estimate inter-province water resource utilization efficiency and Tobit Model was used to explore the influence factors in 2003-2015.The research showed that the utilization efficiency presented‘U'shape and the utilization efficiency was improved in most of provinces ultimately.However significant differences existed between eastern,middle and western regions of China,the efficiency is highest in Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai,while the efficiency is the lowest in most of northwest provinces.The regional disparity of water utilization efficiency showed the significant convergence trend through coefficients of variation method.The regional economic development level,the abundance of water resource,the structure of industry and agriculture,the intensity of government intervention have significantly negative effects on water utilization efficiency while the demands of exports and imports had no significant influence on water utilization efficiency.The state should take full account of the actual conditions in various regions,and make goals of water use efficiency and water resources management policy according to local conditions.Simultaneously water-saving technology should be vigorously developed and the lever of price should be exerted in improving water resources utilization efficiency.The positive spatial spillover effects should be exploited to promote cross-regional cooperation,thereby pushing forward inter-provincial collaborative development of water resources management.
引文
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[6]王莹.中国省际水资源利用效率及影响因素分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2015,57(5):41-52.[WANG Ying.Research on efficiency and influencing factors of intercity water resources in China[J].China rural water and hydropower,2015,57(5):41-52.]
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[11]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,50(10):35-44.[ZHANG Jun,WU Guiying,ZHANG Jipeng.China’s inter-provincial material capital stock estimates:1952-2000[J].Economic research,2004,50(10):35-44.]
[12]雷玉桃,黄丽萍.中国农业用水效率及其影响因素的区域差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):54-60.[LEI Yutao,HUANG Liping.Study on regional differences of agricultural water use efficiency and its influencing factors in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2011,21(2):54-60.]
[13]马远.干旱区城镇化进程对水资源利用效率影响的实证研究——基于DEA模型与IPAT模型[J].技术经济,2016,35(4):85-90.[MA Yuan.Experimental study on the impact of urbanization process on water resources efficiency in arid region:based on DEA Model and IPAT Model[J].Technology economy,2016,35(4):85-90.]
[14]鲍超,陈小杰,梁广林.基于空间计量模型的河南省用水效率影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(7):1138-1148.[BAO Chao,CHEN Xiaojie,LIANG Guanglin.Analysis on the influencing factors of water use efficiency in Henan Province based on spatial econometric models[J].Journal of natural resources,2016,31(7):1138-1148.]
[15]杜焱强,苏时鹏,王育平,等.基于DEA-Tobit模型的福建用水效率及影响因素分析[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(1):44-48.[DU Yanqiang,SU Shipeng,WANG Yuping,et al.Evaluation of water use efficiency and influencing factors in Fujian based on DEA-Tobit Model[J].Resource development and market,2015,31(1):44-48.]
[16]CHEN W,ZHOU Z X,HE J R,et al.Effect of typhoon with extreme precipitation on mountain reservoir drinking water treatment:a case study in Ningbo,China[J].Chinese journal of population,resources and environment,2017,15(2):103-108.
[17]WANG Z G,LIU Y,LI Y Z,et al.Legislation on protection of drinking water sources and local management practices in the Pearl River Delta region of China[J].Chinese journal of population,resources and environment,2016,14(2):144-152.
[2]李程骅,黄南.扬子江城市群水污染协同治理对策建议[R]//南京:扬子江城市群建设智库论坛成果汇编.2017:58-72.[LI Chenhua,HUANG Nan.The suggestions on water pollution collaborative governance of Yangtze Urban Agglomeration[R]//Nanjing:The results compilation of Think Tanks Forum on Yangtze Urban Agglomeration.2017:58-72.]
[3]赵良仕,孙才志,郑德凤.中国省际水资源利用效率与空间溢出效应测度[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):121-133.[ZHAO Liangshi,SUN Caizhi,ZHENG Defeng.Water resource utilization efficiency and its spatial spillover effects measure in China[J].Acta geographica sinica,2014,69(1):121-133.]
[4]马海良,黄德春,张继国.考虑非合意产出的水资源利用效率及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(10):35-42.[MA Hailiang,HUANG Dechun,ZHANG Jiguo.Study on water resources utilization efficiency and influencing factors considering non-consensual output[J].China population,resources and environment,2012,22(10):35-42.]
[5]李世祥,成金华,吴巧生.中国水资源利用效率区域差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,69(1):121-133.[LI Shixiang,CHENG Jinhua,WU Qiaosheng.Regional analysis of water resources utilization efficiency in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2014,69(1):121-133.]
[6]王莹.中国省际水资源利用效率及影响因素分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2015,57(5):41-52.[WANG Ying.Research on efficiency and influencing factors of intercity water resources in China[J].China rural water and hydropower,2015,57(5):41-52.]
[7]钱文婧,贺灿飞.中国水资源利用效率区域差异及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):54-60.[QIAN Wenjing,HE Canfei.Study on regional difference and influencing factors of water resources utilization efficiency in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2011,21(2):54-60.]
[8]郑思齐,万广华,孙伟增.公众诉求与城市环境治理[J].管理世界,2013,29(6):72-84.[ZHENG Siqi,WAN Guanghua,SUN Weizeng.Public demand and urban environmental governance[J].Management world,2013,29(6):72-84.]
[9]TONE K.A slacks:based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European journal of operational research,2001,130:498-509.
[10]FARE R,GROSSKOPF S.Nonparametric productivity analysis with undesirable outputs:comment[J].American journal of agriculture economics,2003,85:1070-1074.
[11]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,50(10):35-44.[ZHANG Jun,WU Guiying,ZHANG Jipeng.China’s inter-provincial material capital stock estimates:1952-2000[J].Economic research,2004,50(10):35-44.]
[12]雷玉桃,黄丽萍.中国农业用水效率及其影响因素的区域差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):54-60.[LEI Yutao,HUANG Liping.Study on regional differences of agricultural water use efficiency and its influencing factors in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2011,21(2):54-60.]
[13]马远.干旱区城镇化进程对水资源利用效率影响的实证研究——基于DEA模型与IPAT模型[J].技术经济,2016,35(4):85-90.[MA Yuan.Experimental study on the impact of urbanization process on water resources efficiency in arid region:based on DEA Model and IPAT Model[J].Technology economy,2016,35(4):85-90.]
[14]鲍超,陈小杰,梁广林.基于空间计量模型的河南省用水效率影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(7):1138-1148.[BAO Chao,CHEN Xiaojie,LIANG Guanglin.Analysis on the influencing factors of water use efficiency in Henan Province based on spatial econometric models[J].Journal of natural resources,2016,31(7):1138-1148.]
[15]杜焱强,苏时鹏,王育平,等.基于DEA-Tobit模型的福建用水效率及影响因素分析[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(1):44-48.[DU Yanqiang,SU Shipeng,WANG Yuping,et al.Evaluation of water use efficiency and influencing factors in Fujian based on DEA-Tobit Model[J].Resource development and market,2015,31(1):44-48.]
[16]CHEN W,ZHOU Z X,HE J R,et al.Effect of typhoon with extreme precipitation on mountain reservoir drinking water treatment:a case study in Ningbo,China[J].Chinese journal of population,resources and environment,2017,15(2):103-108.
[17]WANG Z G,LIU Y,LI Y Z,et al.Legislation on protection of drinking water sources and local management practices in the Pearl River Delta region of China[J].Chinese journal of population,resources and environment,2016,14(2):144-152.