考虑资金时间价值的销售商预售策略研究
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摘要
销售商的预售使顾客的购买行为提前于消费,现有预售模式的相关研究,主要围绕定价策略展开,很少考虑预售(提前)期的量化决策。为制定科学的商品预售策略,在考虑销售商资金时间价值的基础上,结合销售商与顾客间的Stackelberg博弈关系,以预售价格和预售期为决策变量,建立销售商预售策略的优化模型。通过对模型求解结果及现实预售案例的分析,得出结论认为,能实现销售商收入最大化的预售策略可分为超低价格、超长预售期策略和少量价格折扣、较短预售期策略两类,并给出了两种不同预售策略实现销售商收入最大化的条件。最后,通过数值分析展示了两种预售策略间的关系,并对本文的结论进行了验证。
Advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption. Existing researches on advance selling mainly focus on pricing strategies while the quantification of lead-time is seldom discussed. Considering price and lead-time in advance selling as variables,we establish an optimization model under the framework of Stackelberg game. By comparing results from the model with realistic cases,we find that the optimum advance selling strategies should consist of two categories: super low price with ultra-long lead-time and reasonable price discount with short lead-time. Further analysis on the two strategies identifies the conditions under which the profit is maximized. Finally,we use numeric examples to illustrate the relationship between the two typical strategies and to verify the conclusions drawn in this paper.
Advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption. Existing researches on advance selling mainly focus on pricing strategies while the quantification of lead-time is seldom discussed. Considering price and lead-time in advance selling as variables,we establish an optimization model under the framework of Stackelberg game. By comparing results from the model with realistic cases,we find that the optimum advance selling strategies should consist of two categories: super low price with ultra-long lead-time and reasonable price discount with short lead-time. Further analysis on the two strategies identifies the conditions under which the profit is maximized. Finally,we use numeric examples to illustrate the relationship between the two typical strategies and to verify the conclusions drawn in this paper.
引文
[1]毛照昉,刘弯弯,李辉.季节性易逝品预售与回购联合决策研究[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(2):74-84
[2]Xie J.H.,Shugan S.M.Electronic Tickets,Smart Cards,and Online Prepayments:When and How to Advance Sell[J].Marketing Science,2001,20(3):219-243
[3]Weng Z.K.,Parlar M.Integrating Early Sales with Production Decisions:Analysis and Insights[J].IIE Transactions,1999,31(11):1051-1060
[4]Shugan S.M.,Xie J.H.Advance Pricing of Services and Other Implications of Separating Purchase and Consumption[J].Journal of Service Research,2000,2(3):227-239
[5]Moe W.W.,Fader P.S.Fast-Track Article:Using Advance Purchase Orders to Forecast New Product Sales[J].Marketing Science,2002,21(3):347-364
[6]Tang C.S.,Rajaram K.,Alptekinoglu A.,et al.The Benefits of Advance Booking Discount Programs:Model and Analysis[J].Management Science,2004,50(4):465-478
[7]Boyaci T.,zerzalp.Information Acquisition for Capacity Planning Via Pricing and Advance Selling:When to Stop and Act?[J].Operations Research,2010,58(5):1328-1349
[8]慕银平,冯毅,唐小我.随机需求下期权采购与预售联合决策研究[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(6):47-56
[9]Tian Z.,Wang Y.Advance Selling with Preorder-Dependent Customer Valuation[J].Operations Research Letters,2016,44(4):557-562
[10]Zhao X.,Pang Z.,Stecke K.E.When Does a Retailer’s Advance Selling Capability Benefit Manufacturer,Retailer,Or Both?[J].Production&Operations Management,2015,25(6):1073-1087
[11]张雷,阳成虎.预售模式下服装产品双渠道供应链网络协同优化研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(1):1-21
[12]王夏阳.新产品预售的影响机制与企业的定价策略---一个基于消费者选择视角的研究[J].当代经济管理,2015,37(4):13-19
[13]Zhao X.,Stecke K.E.Pre-Orders for New To-Be-Released Products Considering Consumer Loss Aversion[J].Production and Operations Management,2010,19(2):198-215
[14]Swinney R.Selling to Strategic Consumers When Product Value is Uncertain:The Value of Matching Supply and Demand[J].Management Science,2011,57(10):1737-1751
[15]Nocke V.,Peitz M.,Rosar F.Advance-purchase Discounts as a Price Discrimination Device.[J].Journal of Economic Theory,2011,146(1):141-162
[16]Li C.,Zhang F.Advance Demand Information,Price Discrimination,and Preorder Strategies[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2013,15(1):57-71
[17]韩小花,吴海燕,张毕西.基于多种实际决策行为的闭环供应链定价模型[J].管理评论,2015,27(2):187-196
[18]Loginova O.Pricing Strategies in Advance Selling:Should a Retailer Offer a Pre-Order Price Guarantee?[J].Review of Industrial Organization,2016,49(3):1-25
[19]Mccardle K.,Rajaram K.,Tang C.S.Advance Booking Discount Programs Under Retail Competition[J].Management Science,2004,50(5):701-708
[20]Liu Q.,Ryzin G.J.V.Strategic Capacity Rationing to Induce Early Purchases[J].Management Science,2008,54(6):1115-1131
[21]Bellantuono N.,Giannoccaro I.,Pontrandolfo P.,et al.The Implications of Joint Adoption of Revenue Sharing and Advance Booking Discount Programs[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2009,121(2):383-394
[22]刘淑芹,汪寿阳.考虑顾客取消和no-show的酒店客房定价决策[J].管理评论,2010,22(8):52-56
[23]Prasad A.,Stecke K.E.,Zhao X.Advance Selling by a Newsvendor Retailer[J].Production and Operations Management,2011,20(1):129-142
[24]谭佳音,李波.品牌竞争与渠道竞争共存时销售渠道选择策略[J].管理评论,2012,24(6):74-82
[25]Nasiry J.,Popescu I.Advance Selling When Consumers Regret[J].Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177
[26]刘弯弯.基于策略型消费者的预售策略研究[J].上海管理科学,2014,36(6):60-62
[27]Ma S.,Lin J.,Xing W.,et al.Advance Booking Discount in the Presence of Spot Market[J].International Journal of Production Research,2015,53(10):2921-2936
[28]Yu M.,Kapuscinski R.,Ahn H.Advance Selling:Effects of Interdependent Consumer Valuations and Seller’s Capacity[J].Management Science,2015,61(9):2100-2117
[29]Li Y.,Shan M.,Li M.Z.F.Advance Selling Decisions with Overconfident Consumers[J].Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization,2015,12(3):891-905
[30]Wang X.H.,Zeng C.A Model of Advance Selling with Consumer Heterogeneity and Limited Capacity[J].Journal of Economics,2016,117(2):137-165
[31]李勇建,许磊,杨晓丽.产品预售、退货策略和消费者无缺陷退货行为[J].南开管理评论,2012,15(5):105-113
[32]单汨源,欧翠玲,张人龙.预售与正常销售集成模式下B2C企业退货策略[J].系统工程,2015,33(5):48-53
[33]Fruchter G.E.,Tapiero C.S.Dynamic Online and Offline Channel Pricing for Heterogeneous Customers in Virtual Acceptance[J].International Game Theory Review,2011,7(2):137-150
[34]Ji W.Dynamic Pricing of Perishable Products with Competition[J].Open Journal of Social Sciences,2015,3(3):48-52
[2]Xie J.H.,Shugan S.M.Electronic Tickets,Smart Cards,and Online Prepayments:When and How to Advance Sell[J].Marketing Science,2001,20(3):219-243
[3]Weng Z.K.,Parlar M.Integrating Early Sales with Production Decisions:Analysis and Insights[J].IIE Transactions,1999,31(11):1051-1060
[4]Shugan S.M.,Xie J.H.Advance Pricing of Services and Other Implications of Separating Purchase and Consumption[J].Journal of Service Research,2000,2(3):227-239
[5]Moe W.W.,Fader P.S.Fast-Track Article:Using Advance Purchase Orders to Forecast New Product Sales[J].Marketing Science,2002,21(3):347-364
[6]Tang C.S.,Rajaram K.,Alptekinoglu A.,et al.The Benefits of Advance Booking Discount Programs:Model and Analysis[J].Management Science,2004,50(4):465-478
[7]Boyaci T.,zerzalp.Information Acquisition for Capacity Planning Via Pricing and Advance Selling:When to Stop and Act?[J].Operations Research,2010,58(5):1328-1349
[8]慕银平,冯毅,唐小我.随机需求下期权采购与预售联合决策研究[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(6):47-56
[9]Tian Z.,Wang Y.Advance Selling with Preorder-Dependent Customer Valuation[J].Operations Research Letters,2016,44(4):557-562
[10]Zhao X.,Pang Z.,Stecke K.E.When Does a Retailer’s Advance Selling Capability Benefit Manufacturer,Retailer,Or Both?[J].Production&Operations Management,2015,25(6):1073-1087
[11]张雷,阳成虎.预售模式下服装产品双渠道供应链网络协同优化研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(1):1-21
[12]王夏阳.新产品预售的影响机制与企业的定价策略---一个基于消费者选择视角的研究[J].当代经济管理,2015,37(4):13-19
[13]Zhao X.,Stecke K.E.Pre-Orders for New To-Be-Released Products Considering Consumer Loss Aversion[J].Production and Operations Management,2010,19(2):198-215
[14]Swinney R.Selling to Strategic Consumers When Product Value is Uncertain:The Value of Matching Supply and Demand[J].Management Science,2011,57(10):1737-1751
[15]Nocke V.,Peitz M.,Rosar F.Advance-purchase Discounts as a Price Discrimination Device.[J].Journal of Economic Theory,2011,146(1):141-162
[16]Li C.,Zhang F.Advance Demand Information,Price Discrimination,and Preorder Strategies[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2013,15(1):57-71
[17]韩小花,吴海燕,张毕西.基于多种实际决策行为的闭环供应链定价模型[J].管理评论,2015,27(2):187-196
[18]Loginova O.Pricing Strategies in Advance Selling:Should a Retailer Offer a Pre-Order Price Guarantee?[J].Review of Industrial Organization,2016,49(3):1-25
[19]Mccardle K.,Rajaram K.,Tang C.S.Advance Booking Discount Programs Under Retail Competition[J].Management Science,2004,50(5):701-708
[20]Liu Q.,Ryzin G.J.V.Strategic Capacity Rationing to Induce Early Purchases[J].Management Science,2008,54(6):1115-1131
[21]Bellantuono N.,Giannoccaro I.,Pontrandolfo P.,et al.The Implications of Joint Adoption of Revenue Sharing and Advance Booking Discount Programs[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2009,121(2):383-394
[22]刘淑芹,汪寿阳.考虑顾客取消和no-show的酒店客房定价决策[J].管理评论,2010,22(8):52-56
[23]Prasad A.,Stecke K.E.,Zhao X.Advance Selling by a Newsvendor Retailer[J].Production and Operations Management,2011,20(1):129-142
[24]谭佳音,李波.品牌竞争与渠道竞争共存时销售渠道选择策略[J].管理评论,2012,24(6):74-82
[25]Nasiry J.,Popescu I.Advance Selling When Consumers Regret[J].Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177
[26]刘弯弯.基于策略型消费者的预售策略研究[J].上海管理科学,2014,36(6):60-62
[27]Ma S.,Lin J.,Xing W.,et al.Advance Booking Discount in the Presence of Spot Market[J].International Journal of Production Research,2015,53(10):2921-2936
[28]Yu M.,Kapuscinski R.,Ahn H.Advance Selling:Effects of Interdependent Consumer Valuations and Seller’s Capacity[J].Management Science,2015,61(9):2100-2117
[29]Li Y.,Shan M.,Li M.Z.F.Advance Selling Decisions with Overconfident Consumers[J].Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization,2015,12(3):891-905
[30]Wang X.H.,Zeng C.A Model of Advance Selling with Consumer Heterogeneity and Limited Capacity[J].Journal of Economics,2016,117(2):137-165
[31]李勇建,许磊,杨晓丽.产品预售、退货策略和消费者无缺陷退货行为[J].南开管理评论,2012,15(5):105-113
[32]单汨源,欧翠玲,张人龙.预售与正常销售集成模式下B2C企业退货策略[J].系统工程,2015,33(5):48-53
[33]Fruchter G.E.,Tapiero C.S.Dynamic Online and Offline Channel Pricing for Heterogeneous Customers in Virtual Acceptance[J].International Game Theory Review,2011,7(2):137-150
[34]Ji W.Dynamic Pricing of Perishable Products with Competition[J].Open Journal of Social Sciences,2015,3(3):48-52