江西省用水结构变化及影响因素分析
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摘要
根据江西省1999～2016年共18年的用水量数据,分析了农业、工业、生活和生态环境用水结构的变化,采用信息熵的方法对江西省用水结构变化的趋势进行了分析,总结了影响各类用水量变化的因素.结果表明:(1)江西省总用水量呈波动上升趋势,农业用水量呈波动略微上升趋势,工业用水量呈明显的波动上升趋势,生活用水量呈直线上升趋势,生态环境用水量呈稳中有升趋势;(2)从信息熵演化和均衡度的角度来看,江西省水资源开发利用结构向着更均衡、更稳定的方向发展;(3)影响江西省用水结构变化的因素是多样的,包括降水量、灌溉面积、工业增加值、万元工业增加值用水量、总人口、人均生活用水量、城镇化率及政府和民众对生态环境的重视等.
The structure changes of agricultural,industrial,domestic and eco-environmental water uses in Jiangxi province were analyzed according to the water use data from 1999 to 2016. The information entropy method was adopted to analyze the water structure change tendency of Jiangxi province. And then the influence factors of the changes of different water uses were summarized here. The results showed that:( 1) generally speaking,the total water use of Jiangxi province showed a fluctuated upward trend,the agricultural water use showed a fluctuated slightly upward trend,the industrial water use showed an obvious rising trend,the domestic water use showed a linear growth trend,while the eco-environmental water use showed a steady rising trend;( 2) the development and utilization structure of water resources in Jiangxi province evolves towards a more balanced and stable direction from both the information entropy evolution and the equilibrium degree perspectives;( 3) the influence factors of water structure change in Jiangxi province are varied,including precipitation,irrigation area,industrial value-added,water use per ten thousand Yuan of industrial value-added,total population,water use per capita,urbanization rate and the attention to the ecological environment from the government and the public,etc.
The structure changes of agricultural,industrial,domestic and eco-environmental water uses in Jiangxi province were analyzed according to the water use data from 1999 to 2016. The information entropy method was adopted to analyze the water structure change tendency of Jiangxi province. And then the influence factors of the changes of different water uses were summarized here. The results showed that:( 1) generally speaking,the total water use of Jiangxi province showed a fluctuated upward trend,the agricultural water use showed a fluctuated slightly upward trend,the industrial water use showed an obvious rising trend,the domestic water use showed a linear growth trend,while the eco-environmental water use showed a steady rising trend;( 2) the development and utilization structure of water resources in Jiangxi province evolves towards a more balanced and stable direction from both the information entropy evolution and the equilibrium degree perspectives;( 3) the influence factors of water structure change in Jiangxi province are varied,including precipitation,irrigation area,industrial value-added,water use per ten thousand Yuan of industrial value-added,total population,water use per capita,urbanization rate and the attention to the ecological environment from the government and the public,etc.
引文
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[22]孟丽红,陈亚宁,胥志彪,等.江西省水资源可持续利用评价研究[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(6):166~170.
[23]崔嫱,赵鹏宇,步秀芹,等.基于信息熵的忻州市用水结构演变及其驱动力的因子分析[J].节水灌溉,2015,(6):58~61.
[24]粟晓玲,赵晨,马黎华.关中地区近20年用水结构演变及其驱动力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2008,27(5):71~73.
[2]冯天梅,张鑫.包头市用水结构的演变分析[J].节水灌溉,2014(2):69~73.
[3]WANG X J,ZHANG J Y,SHAHID S,et al. Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2012,17(8):923~937.
[4]朱一中,夏军,谈戈.关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(2):180~188.
[5]吴昊,华骅,王腊春,等.区域用水结构演变及驱动力分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(6):477~484.
[6]刘昌明.二十一世纪中国水资源若干问题的讨论[J].水利水电技术,2002,33(1):15~19.
[7]马黎华.石羊河流域用水结构的数据驱动模拟机缺水风险研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2012.
[8]徐勇俊.基于系统模拟的区域用水结构与国民经济协同演变规律研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2015.
[9]张曼,吴佳斌.泉州市1999-2009年用水结构演变规律及驱动分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(5):111~114.
[10]顾鹤南,王建平.青岛市近20a用水结构变化及其驱动力研究[J].人民黄河,2012,34(9):55~57.
[11]何艳虎,李深林,杨洁,等.我国不同区域用水结构变化及其驱动因素分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(4):1~6.
[12]雷欢,张鑫.陕西省近10年用水结构演变及驱动力分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2012,23(4):125~128.
[13]许士国,吕素冰,刘建卫,等.白城地区用水结构演变与用水效益分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(4):106~108+214.
[14]田贵良,顾巍,谢文轩.基于虚拟水贸易战略的缺水地区用水结构优化研究[J].水利经济,2013,31(1):1~6.
[15]郑爱勤,王文科,段磊.关中盆地用水结构变化及其驱动因子分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):75~79.
[16]孙凯艳,张浩,缪萍萍,等.近10年海河流域用水结构特征及演变趋势研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(6):102~104.
[17]黄晶,宋振伟,陈阜.北京市水足迹及农业用水结构变化特征[J].生态学报,2010,30(23):6546~6554.
[18]刘燕,胡安焱,邓亚芝.基于信息熵的用水系统结构演化研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(6):141~144.
[19]施丽姗,张曼.基于生态位理论的福建省用水结构研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(6):109~112.
[20]商玲,李宗礼,于静洁.宁波市用水结构分析[J].水利水电技术,2013,44(9):12~16.
[21]王晰哲.江西省水资源利用效率研究[D].南昌:江西财经大学,2015.
[22]孟丽红,陈亚宁,胥志彪,等.江西省水资源可持续利用评价研究[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(6):166~170.
[23]崔嫱,赵鹏宇,步秀芹,等.基于信息熵的忻州市用水结构演变及其驱动力的因子分析[J].节水灌溉,2015,(6):58~61.
[24]粟晓玲,赵晨,马黎华.关中地区近20年用水结构演变及其驱动力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2008,27(5):71~73.