热带海温的时空变化及其与我国降水的关系
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摘要
利用1979—2014年的NOAA/NASA海表温度延长重构数据和国家台站的观测数据,采用经验正交函数(EOF)方法,从赤道年平均海温出发,分析热带海温的时空变化特征以及印度洋—太平洋海温对我国年降水量的影响。结果表明,1979—2014年热带地区年平均海温为26℃,海温暖区主要集中在印度洋和西太平洋的赤道地区。热带海温距平时空变化特征:第1特征向量场在印度洋海温表现为全区一致型,太平洋海温表现为弱El Nio(La Nia)现象,时间系数与年降水量主要在新疆、西藏、青海、甘肃和河套地区为显著的正相关关系;第2特征向量场在太平洋海温表现为El Nio(La Nia)现象,印度洋海温表现为偶极子型,时间系数与年降水量在西藏和黄河中游地区为显著的正相关关系,在东北东部和长江以南地区为显著的负相关关系;第3特征向量场在太平洋海温表现为弱El Nio(La Nia)现象,印度洋海温表现为南北型,时间系数与年降水量在西藏、新疆、福建和东北西北部为显著的负相关关系。
Using the NOAA/NASA sea surface temperature extension reconstruction data and the national station observation data from 1979 to 2014,starting from the annual average sea surface temperature( SST) of equator,the temporal and spatial characteristics of tropical SST and the effect of Indian Ocean-Pacific SST on the annual precipitation in China were analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function( EOF) method. The results showed that the annual average SST in the tropical region was 26 ℃ from 1979 to 2014,and the warm zone of SST was mainly concentrated in the equatorial region of the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The tropical SST anomalies were characterized by the fact that the first eigenvector field was consistent with the same area in the Indian Ocean SST,and the Pacific SST was weak El Nio( La Nia). The time coefficient and the annual precipitation were mainly positive correlation in Xinjiang,Tibet,Qinghai,Gansu and Hetao area. The second eigenvector field was El Nio( La Nia) in the Pacific SST,and the Indian Ocean SST was characterized by dipole type. There was a significant positive correlation between time coefficient and annual precipitation in Tibet and the middle reaches of the Yellow River,and significant negative correlation between the eastern part of the Northeast and the south of the Yangtze River. The third eigenvector field was weak El Nio( La Nia) in the Pacific SST,and the Indian Ocean SST was the north-south type,there was significant negative correlations between time coefficient and annual precipitation in Tibet,Xinjiang,Fujian and the northwest part of the northeast.
Using the NOAA/NASA sea surface temperature extension reconstruction data and the national station observation data from 1979 to 2014,starting from the annual average sea surface temperature( SST) of equator,the temporal and spatial characteristics of tropical SST and the effect of Indian Ocean-Pacific SST on the annual precipitation in China were analyzed by the empirical orthogonal function( EOF) method. The results showed that the annual average SST in the tropical region was 26 ℃ from 1979 to 2014,and the warm zone of SST was mainly concentrated in the equatorial region of the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The tropical SST anomalies were characterized by the fact that the first eigenvector field was consistent with the same area in the Indian Ocean SST,and the Pacific SST was weak El Nio( La Nia). The time coefficient and the annual precipitation were mainly positive correlation in Xinjiang,Tibet,Qinghai,Gansu and Hetao area. The second eigenvector field was El Nio( La Nia) in the Pacific SST,and the Indian Ocean SST was characterized by dipole type. There was a significant positive correlation between time coefficient and annual precipitation in Tibet and the middle reaches of the Yellow River,and significant negative correlation between the eastern part of the Northeast and the south of the Yangtze River. The third eigenvector field was weak El Nio( La Nia) in the Pacific SST,and the Indian Ocean SST was the north-south type,there was significant negative correlations between time coefficient and annual precipitation in Tibet,Xinjiang,Fujian and the northwest part of the northeast.
引文
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[8]谭言科,张人禾,何金海,等.热带印度洋海温的年际变化与ENSO[J].气象学报,2004,62(6):831-840.
[9]孙楠楠.东海黑潮海表温度变化及其与厄尔尼诺和全球变暖的关系[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.
[10]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[2]龚道溢,王绍武.ENSO对中国四季降水的影响[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):44-52.
[3]赵振国.厄尔尼诺现象对北半球大气环流和中国降水的影响[J].大气科学,1996,20(4):422-428.
[4]袁媛,杨辉,李崇银.不同分布型厄尔尼诺事件及对中国次年夏季降水的可能影响[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):467-478.
[5]邓爱军,陶诗言,陈烈庭.印度洋海表温度的时空分布特征及其与我国汛期降水关系的探讨[J].大气科学,1989,13(4):393-399.
[6]张晓玲,肖子牛,李跃凤.ENSO背景下印度洋偶极子海温异常对中国冬季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(5):621-632.
[7]晏红明,肖子牛,谢应齐.近50年热带印度洋海温距平场的时空特征分析[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(2):180-188.
[8]谭言科,张人禾,何金海,等.热带印度洋海温的年际变化与ENSO[J].气象学报,2004,62(6):831-840.
[9]孙楠楠.东海黑潮海表温度变化及其与厄尔尼诺和全球变暖的关系[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.
[10]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.