我国制造业产能利用率测度与影响因素研究——基于十个重点行业
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摘要
选取制造业的十个重点行业,使用2001—2014年的面板数据,运用数据包络分析法(DEA)对其产能利用率、技术效率和设备利用率进行了测算,结果显示:我国制造业的部分行业存在严重的产能过剩问题;非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业等传统行业的产能利用率较低;通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业等新兴行业的产能利用率相对较高。剖析制造业产能过剩的影响因素,发现市场需求与产能利用率存在显著的正相关关系,资本密集度、就业水平、开放度、金融支持与产能利用率有显著的负相关关系。
We estimate capacity utilization,technical efficiency and equipment utilization of ten key industries in manufacturing industry by using data envelopment analysis( DEA) with the panel data from 2001 to 2014.The results show that there is a serious overcapacity problem in some of China's manufacturing industries. Some traditional industries have low production capacity utilization like non-metallic mineral products,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. However,some emerging industries,such as communications equipment,computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing and so forth have relatively high utilization.Through the analysis of influencing factors of overcapacity in the manufacturing industry,we found that there is a significantly positive correlation between market demand and capacity utilization while there is a significantly negative correlation between capital intensity,employment level,openness,financial support and capacity utilization.
We estimate capacity utilization,technical efficiency and equipment utilization of ten key industries in manufacturing industry by using data envelopment analysis( DEA) with the panel data from 2001 to 2014.The results show that there is a serious overcapacity problem in some of China's manufacturing industries. Some traditional industries have low production capacity utilization like non-metallic mineral products,ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. However,some emerging industries,such as communications equipment,computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing and so forth have relatively high utilization.Through the analysis of influencing factors of overcapacity in the manufacturing industry,we found that there is a significantly positive correlation between market demand and capacity utilization while there is a significantly negative correlation between capital intensity,employment level,openness,financial support and capacity utilization.
引文
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[17]魏作磊,刘海江.服务业FDI提升了我国制造业的生产效率了吗[J].财经理论研究,2017(3):176.
[18]郑猛,杨先明.要素替代、技术进步与中国制造业比较优势动态化[J].贵州财经大学学报,2017(6):18.
[19]余东华,吕逸楠.政府不当干预与战略性新兴产业产能过剩——以中国光伏产业为例[J].中国工业经济,2015(10):53-68.
[2]Phillips A.An Appraisal of Measures of Capacity[C].American Economie Review,1963:275-292.
[3]Fare R,Kokkelenberg E C.Measuring Plant Capacity,Utilization and Technical Change:A Nonparametric Approach[J].International Economic Review,1989,30(3):655-666.
[4]Pascoe S,Tingley D.Economic Capacity Estimation in Fisheries:A Non-Parametric Ray Approach[J].Resource&Energy Economics,2006,28(2):124-138.
[5]Ishii J.Useful Excess Capacity[J].An Empirical Study of US Oil&Gas Drilling,2010.
[6]Dixit B A.The Role of Investment in Entry Deterrence[J].The Economic Journal 90,2010.
[7]沈利生.我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1999(12):3-6.
[8]韩国高,高铁梅,王立国,齐鹰飞,王晓姝.中国制造业产能过剩的测度、波动及成因研究[J].经济研究,2011(12):18-31.
[9]董敏杰,梁泳梅,张其仔.中国工业产能利用率:行业比较、地区差距及影响因素[J].经济研究,2015(01):84-98.
[10]沈坤荣,钦晓双,孙成浩.中国产能过剩的成因与测度[J].产业经济评论,2012(04):1-26.
[11]刘航,孙早.城镇化动因扭曲与制造业产能过剩——基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J].中国工业经济,2014(11):5-17.
[12]干春晖,邹俊,王健.地方官员任期、企业资源获取与产能过剩[J].中国工业经济,2015(03):44-56.
[13]林毅夫,巫和懋,邢亦青.“潮涌现象”与产能过剩的形成机制[J].经济研究,2010(10):118-118.
[14]江飞涛,耿强,吕大国,等.地区竞争、体制扭曲与产能过剩的形成机理[J].中国工业经济,2012(06):44-56.
[15]王立国,鞠蕾.地方政府干预、企业过度投资与产能过剩:26个行业样本[J].改革,2012(12):52-62.
[16]杨振兵,张诚.中国工业部门产能过剩的测度与影响因素分析[J].南开经济研究,2015(06):92-109.
[17]魏作磊,刘海江.服务业FDI提升了我国制造业的生产效率了吗[J].财经理论研究,2017(3):176.
[18]郑猛,杨先明.要素替代、技术进步与中国制造业比较优势动态化[J].贵州财经大学学报,2017(6):18.
[19]余东华,吕逸楠.政府不当干预与战略性新兴产业产能过剩——以中国光伏产业为例[J].中国工业经济,2015(10):53-68.