农地流转市场发育的微观机制——来自中国家庭追踪调查的证据
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摘要
从影响农户收入、就业、生存等方面的因素出发,以市场供给和需求为主线,构建农地流转市场发育的微观驱动机制分析框架,并在此框架下利用中国家庭追踪调查数据中的24个省份的农户农地流转数据,选择合适的指标构建模型,采用Logistic模型从农地流入和农地转出两个层面进行案例研究。结果表明:(1)农户主要是通过农户自身特征、区位条件、对农业生产的依赖程度、商业保险购买额度等方面的传导,对收入、就业和生存对农地流转供给和需求产生影响,进而影响到农地流转市场发育。(2)农户家庭特征(农户文化程度、健康水平和劳动力数量)、区位条件、对农业生产的依赖程度、商业保险购买额度对农地流转市场发育产生显著影响。家庭人口数、农户健康状况、农业依赖程度和区位条件对农户土地流出有负向影响,农户文化程度、商业保险、地貌类型对农户土地流出有正向影响;影响农户土地流入的因素只有家庭人口数、农户健康状况、地貌类型、农业依赖程度对之产生正向影响。
This paper analyses the spatial and temporal variation and the influencing factors of farmland transfer by using the farmland transfer data of Chinese family tracing survey in 24 provinces. In the process of analyzing the influencing factors of farm land transfer,this paper establishes Logistic regression model of farmland inflow and outflow. In the end,this paper put forward some suggestions to accelerate the transfer of agricultural land. The main conclusions are as follows:( 1) Rural land transfer level is not high and the differences in the rate of farm transfer between regions are obvious. The eastern region has the highest rate of farm transfer,followed by the central region,and the western region the lowest; in addition,there are also differences within the region.( 2) The empirical results show that the health condition of farmers,family size,family farm income,the nearest commercial center have a negative impact on the farm land outflow,and commercial health insurance expenditure,rural geomorphology and regional virtual variable have a positive impact on farm land outflow. The health condition of farmers,family size,family farm income,and regional virtual variables significantly influence the inflow of farm land,and they all have a positive impact on the inflow of farm land.( 3) The level of rural land transfer and economic levels are closely related.
This paper analyses the spatial and temporal variation and the influencing factors of farmland transfer by using the farmland transfer data of Chinese family tracing survey in 24 provinces. In the process of analyzing the influencing factors of farm land transfer,this paper establishes Logistic regression model of farmland inflow and outflow. In the end,this paper put forward some suggestions to accelerate the transfer of agricultural land. The main conclusions are as follows:( 1) Rural land transfer level is not high and the differences in the rate of farm transfer between regions are obvious. The eastern region has the highest rate of farm transfer,followed by the central region,and the western region the lowest; in addition,there are also differences within the region.( 2) The empirical results show that the health condition of farmers,family size,family farm income,the nearest commercial center have a negative impact on the farm land outflow,and commercial health insurance expenditure,rural geomorphology and regional virtual variable have a positive impact on farm land outflow. The health condition of farmers,family size,family farm income,and regional virtual variables significantly influence the inflow of farm land,and they all have a positive impact on the inflow of farm land.( 3) The level of rural land transfer and economic levels are closely related.
引文
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[9]张明辉,蔡银莺.功能区定位约束下农户参与农地流转决策的关键因素——以湖北省武汉、孝感的832个农户为例[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(3):119-125.
[10]林善浪,叶炜,梁琳.家庭生命周期对农户农地流转意愿的影响研究——基于福建省1570份调查问卷的实证分析[J].中国土地科学,2018,32(3):68-73.
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[12]何欣,蒋涛,郭良燕,等.中国农地流转市场的发展与农户流转农地行为研究——基于2013—2015年29省的农户调查数据[J].管理世界,2016,32(6):79-89.
[13]马贤磊,仇童伟,钱忠好.农地产权安全性与农地流转市场的农户参与——基于江苏、湖北、广西、黑龙江四省(区)调查数据的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2015,31(2):22-37.
[14]张桂颖,吕东辉.乡村社会嵌入与农户农地流转行为——基于吉林省936户农户调查数据的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2017,36(8):57-66.
[15]陈美球,肖鹤亮,何维佳,等.耕地流转农户行为影响因素的实证分析——基于江西省1396户农户耕地流转行为现状的调研[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(3):369-374.
[16]刘芬华.是何因素阻碍了中国农地流转——基于调研结果及相关观点的解析[J].经济学家,2011,23(2):83-92.
[17]周广肃.Stata统计分析与应用[M].2版.北京:机械工业出版社,2015.
[18]卞琦娟,周曙东,葛继红.发达地区农地流转影响因素分析——基于浙江省农户样本数据[J].农业技术经济,2010,29(6):28-36.
[2]赵光,李放,黄俊辉.新型农村养老保险对农民土地流转行为的影响[J].江西财经大学学报,2015,17(4):49-58.
[3]包宗顺,徐志明,高珊,等.农村土地流转的区域差异与影响因素——以江苏省为例[J].中国农村经济,2009,25(4):23-30.
[4]郜亮亮.中国农地流转市场的现状及完善建议[J].中州学刊,2018,40(2):46-52.
[5]罗必良.科斯定理:反思与拓展——兼论中国农地流转制度改革与选择[J].经济研究,2017,63(11):178-193.
[6]徐志刚,谭鑫,郑旭媛,等.农地流转市场发育对粮食生产的影响与约束条件[J].中国农村经济,2017,33(9):26-43.
[7]牛星,吴冠岑.供给侧结构性改革:农地流转市场发展的困境与出路[J].经济体制改革,2017,25(3):75-81.
[8]李庚.农村土地流转的空间差异及成因分析——以陕西关中三县为例[J].人文地理,2012,27(1):102-106.
[9]张明辉,蔡银莺.功能区定位约束下农户参与农地流转决策的关键因素——以湖北省武汉、孝感的832个农户为例[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(3):119-125.
[10]林善浪,叶炜,梁琳.家庭生命周期对农户农地流转意愿的影响研究——基于福建省1570份调查问卷的实证分析[J].中国土地科学,2018,32(3):68-73.
[11]陈飞,翟伟娟.农户行为视角下农地流转诱因及其福利效应研究[J].经济研究,2015,61(10):163-177.
[12]何欣,蒋涛,郭良燕,等.中国农地流转市场的发展与农户流转农地行为研究——基于2013—2015年29省的农户调查数据[J].管理世界,2016,32(6):79-89.
[13]马贤磊,仇童伟,钱忠好.农地产权安全性与农地流转市场的农户参与——基于江苏、湖北、广西、黑龙江四省(区)调查数据的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2015,31(2):22-37.
[14]张桂颖,吕东辉.乡村社会嵌入与农户农地流转行为——基于吉林省936户农户调查数据的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2017,36(8):57-66.
[15]陈美球,肖鹤亮,何维佳,等.耕地流转农户行为影响因素的实证分析——基于江西省1396户农户耕地流转行为现状的调研[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(3):369-374.
[16]刘芬华.是何因素阻碍了中国农地流转——基于调研结果及相关观点的解析[J].经济学家,2011,23(2):83-92.
[17]周广肃.Stata统计分析与应用[M].2版.北京:机械工业出版社,2015.
[18]卞琦娟,周曙东,葛继红.发达地区农地流转影响因素分析——基于浙江省农户样本数据[J].农业技术经济,2010,29(6):28-36.