1961-2016年河南省极端气温事件变化特征
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摘要
以1961-2016年河南省17个气象站逐日最高、最低和日平均气温数据为研究对象,运用Sen’s倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、R/S分析和空间分析等方法,分析了河南省16个极端气温指数(冷指数和暖指数)的变化特征.结果表明:过去的56年,河南省极端气温冷指数和暖指数均呈暖化趋势.其中,霜冻日数、冷夜日数、暖夜日数和生物生长季暖化趋势最显著.空间上,河南省各地极端气温冷指数和暖指数均呈暖化趋势.其中,郑州、开封、新乡、三门峡等地暖化趋势最显著.极端冷指数开始变暖、显著变暖和变暖突变时间均早于暖指数,且冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,说明冷指数对全球变暖更敏感.河南省极端气温冷指数和暖指数可持续性均较强,意味着河南省极端气温指数暖化趋势将持续.
Using daily maximum,minimum and average temperature data from 17 meteorological stations in Henan province during 1961-2016,the spatial and temporal variations of sixteen extreme temperature indices(cooling and warm indices)were analyzed by using multiple methods,such as Sen's tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall test,R/S analysis and spatial analysis.The results showed that:in terms of temporal variations,extreme temperature indices over Henan province presented a warming trend during the last 56 years.The indices(e.g.frost days,cool nights,warm nights and growing season length)showed the most significant warming trend.In terms of spatial variations,each station also showed a warming trend.The warming trends of Zhengzhou,Kaifeng,Xinxiang and Sanmenxia area were the most obvious.The initial warming,the significant warming and abrupt warming of cooling indices occurred earlier and to a greater magnitude.It suggested that the cooling indices were more sensible than warming indices in response to global warming.Extremes temperature indices over Henan province showed a strong persistence,indicating that the warming trend of extreme temperature indices would continue.
Using daily maximum,minimum and average temperature data from 17 meteorological stations in Henan province during 1961-2016,the spatial and temporal variations of sixteen extreme temperature indices(cooling and warm indices)were analyzed by using multiple methods,such as Sen's tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall test,R/S analysis and spatial analysis.The results showed that:in terms of temporal variations,extreme temperature indices over Henan province presented a warming trend during the last 56 years.The indices(e.g.frost days,cool nights,warm nights and growing season length)showed the most significant warming trend.In terms of spatial variations,each station also showed a warming trend.The warming trends of Zhengzhou,Kaifeng,Xinxiang and Sanmenxia area were the most obvious.The initial warming,the significant warming and abrupt warming of cooling indices occurred earlier and to a greater magnitude.It suggested that the cooling indices were more sensible than warming indices in response to global warming.Extremes temperature indices over Henan province showed a strong persistence,indicating that the warming trend of extreme temperature indices would continue.
引文
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[22]赵安周,刘宪锋,朱秀芳,等.1965-2013年黄土高原地区极端气温趋势变化及空间差异[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):639-652.ZHAO Anzhou,LIU Xianfeng,ZHU Xiuqin,et al.Trend variations and spatial difference of extreme air temperature events in the Loess Plateau from 1965to 2013[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(4):639-652.
[23]赵雪雁,雒丽,王亚茹,等.1963-2012年青藏高原东缘极端气温变化特征及趋势[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2113-2122.ZHAO Xueyan,LUO Li,WANG Yaru,et al.Extreme temperature events in Eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1963to 2012[J].Resources Sciences,2014,36(10):2113-2122.
[24]周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(6):1589-1598.ZHOU Yaqing,REN Guoyu.Urbanization effect on long-term trends of extreme temperature events in North China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2014,33(6):1589-1598.
[25]赵国永,韩艳,刘明华,等.1951-2014年内蒙古自治区极端气温事件时空变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(12):110-16.ZHAO Guoyong,HAN Yan,LIU Minghua,et al.Characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of extreme temperature events in Inner Mongolia during 1951-2014[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(12):110-116.
[26]PETERSON T C,TAYLOR M A,DEMERITTE R,et al.Recent changes in climate extremes in the Carib bean region[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2002,107(D21):4601.
[27]KLEINTANK A M G,PETERSON T C,QUADIR D A,et al.Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(D16).doi:10.1029/2005JD006316.
[28]LI Z X,HE Y Q,WANG P Y,et al.Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008[J].Global andPlanetray Change,2012(80/81):255-272.
[29]李双双,杨赛霓.1960-2014年北京极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1640-1647.LI Shuangshuang,YANG Saini.Changes of extreme temperature events in Beijing during 1960-2014[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(12):1640-1647.
[30]AGUILAR E A,BARRY A A,BRUNET M,et al.Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa,Guinea Conakry,and Zimbabwe,1955-2006[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2009,114(D2).doi:10.1029/2008JD011010.
[2]ALEXANDER L V,ZHANG X,PETERSON T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(D5):1-22.
[3]KARL T R,NICHOLLS N,GHAZI A.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extreme[J].Climate Change,1999(42):3-7.
[4]FRICH P,ALEXANDER L V,DELLA-MARTA P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Research,2002,19(3):193-212.
[5]钱维宏.全球气候系统[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2009.QIAN Weihong.Global climate system[M].Beijing:Peking University Press,2009.
[6]任国玉,封国林,严中伟.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):337-353.REN Guoyu,FENG Guolin,YAN Zhongwei.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):337-353.
[7]王安乾,苏布达,王艳君,等.中国极端低温事件特征及其耕地暴露度研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(5):954-963.WANG Anqian,SU Buda,WANG Yanjun,et al.The characteristics of extreme minimum temperature events and exposure of farmland in China[J].Resources Science,2017,39(5):954-963.
[8]赵国永,韩艳,郭雪莲,等.1961-2013年河南省气温要素时空变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(13):249-257.ZHAO Guoyong,HAN Yan,GUO Xuelian,et al.Temporal-spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Henan province during1961-2013[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(13):249-257.
[9]闫军辉,张向敏,周红升,等.1951-2015年河南省温度变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):102-107.YAN Junhui,ZHANG Xiangmin,ZHOU Hongsheng,et al.Annual temperature variations in Henan during the period of 1951-2015[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(7):102-107.
[10]余卫东,柳俊高,常军,等.1957-2005年河南省降水和温度极端事件变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(2):78-83.YU Weidong,LIU Jungao,CHANG Jun,et al.Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in Henan province during 1957-2005[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(2):78-83.
[11]马晓华,赵景波.1958-2013年豫南地区极端气温变化特征及周期分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(9):1825-1833.MA Xiaohua,ZHAO Jingbo.Analysis on characteristics of extreme temperature change and cycle of southern Henan from 1958to2013[J].Resources Science,2014,36(9):1825-1833.
[12]高文华,李开封,崔豫.1960-2014年河南极端气温事件时空演变分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(8):1259-1269.GAO Wenhua,LI Kaifeng,CUI Yu.Temporal and spatial variation of extreme temperature events in Henan province during 1960-2014[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(8):1259-1269.
[13]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996.XU Jianhua.Mathematical methods in modern geography[M].Beijing:Higher Education Press,1996.
[14]冯新灵,罗隆诚,邱丽丽,等.青藏高原至中国东部年雨日变化趋势的分形研究[J].地理研究,2007,26(4):835-843.FENG Xinling,LUO Longcheng,QIU Lili,et al.Fractal research of rainy day changing trend from Tibetan Plateau to Eastern China[J].Geographical Research,2007,26(4):835-843.
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.WEI Fengying.Modern climate statistics diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological,1999.
[16]SEN P K.Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's Tau[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1968,63(324):1379-1389.
[17]HAMED K H.Trend detection in hydrologicdata:the Mann-Kendall trend test under the scalling hypothesis[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,349(3):350-363.
[18]黄小燕,王小平,王劲松,等.1960-2013年中国沿海极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):612-620.HUANG Xiaoyan,WANG Xiaoping,WANG Jinsong,et al.Variation of extreme temperature events in coastal region of China in1960-2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):612-620.
[19]王琼,张明军,王圣杰,等.1962-2011年长江流域极端气温事件分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):611-625.WANG Qiong,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Extreme temperature events in Yangtze river basin during 1962-2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):611-625.
[20]吴灿,赵景波,王格慧.黄河流域极端气温指数的气候演变特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):525-535.WU Can,ZHAO Jingbo.Characteristic analysis of the climatic revolution in the Yellow River extreme temperature index[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(5):525-535.
[21]谢志祥,李亚男,秦耀辰,等.1960-2012年淮河流域极端气温变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(7):407-416.XIE Zhixiang,LI Yanan,QIN Yaochen,et al.Evolution characteristics of the extreme temperature in Huaihe River Basin form 1960to 2012[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorogy,2017,38(7):407-416.
[22]赵安周,刘宪锋,朱秀芳,等.1965-2013年黄土高原地区极端气温趋势变化及空间差异[J].地理研究,2016,35(4):639-652.ZHAO Anzhou,LIU Xianfeng,ZHU Xiuqin,et al.Trend variations and spatial difference of extreme air temperature events in the Loess Plateau from 1965to 2013[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(4):639-652.
[23]赵雪雁,雒丽,王亚茹,等.1963-2012年青藏高原东缘极端气温变化特征及趋势[J].资源科学,2014,36(10):2113-2122.ZHAO Xueyan,LUO Li,WANG Yaru,et al.Extreme temperature events in Eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1963to 2012[J].Resources Sciences,2014,36(10):2113-2122.
[24]周雅清,任国玉.城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J].高原气象,2014,33(6):1589-1598.ZHOU Yaqing,REN Guoyu.Urbanization effect on long-term trends of extreme temperature events in North China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2014,33(6):1589-1598.
[25]赵国永,韩艳,刘明华,等.1951-2014年内蒙古自治区极端气温事件时空变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(12):110-16.ZHAO Guoyong,HAN Yan,LIU Minghua,et al.Characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of extreme temperature events in Inner Mongolia during 1951-2014[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(12):110-116.
[26]PETERSON T C,TAYLOR M A,DEMERITTE R,et al.Recent changes in climate extremes in the Carib bean region[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2002,107(D21):4601.
[27]KLEINTANK A M G,PETERSON T C,QUADIR D A,et al.Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(D16).doi:10.1029/2005JD006316.
[28]LI Z X,HE Y Q,WANG P Y,et al.Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008[J].Global andPlanetray Change,2012(80/81):255-272.
[29]李双双,杨赛霓.1960-2014年北京极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1640-1647.LI Shuangshuang,YANG Saini.Changes of extreme temperature events in Beijing during 1960-2014[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(12):1640-1647.
[30]AGUILAR E A,BARRY A A,BRUNET M,et al.Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa,Guinea Conakry,and Zimbabwe,1955-2006[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2009,114(D2).doi:10.1029/2008JD011010.