1955～2015年汉中极端气温事件变化特征
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摘要
基于汉中1955～2015年逐日最高气温和最低气温实测数据,利用RClimDex软件计算了11项极端气温指数,运用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall法分析了汉中极端气温事件变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:(1)近60年汉中增温趋势明显,极端最高气温、最低气温分别以0.06℃/10 a、0.45℃/10 a趋势增加;(2)夏日日数、热夜日数、暖日日数、暖夜日数、作物生长期分别以2.91 d/10 a、3.31 d/10 a、0.67 d/10 a、2.66 d/10 a、3.89 d/10 a的趋势增加;(3)霜冻日数、冷日日数、冷夜日数和气温日较差分别以-4.41 d/10 a、-0.57 d/10 a、-1.93 d/10 a、-0.15℃/10 a的趋势减少;(4)汉中各极端气温指数突变年不一,主要集中在20世纪60至70年代、20世纪90年代至21世纪初叶。
Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature of Hanzhong meteorological station from 1955～2015, eleven indices of extreme temperature were calculated by using RClimDex. The change trend and mutation characteristics of eleven indices of extreme temperature were analyzed by the linear regression and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that the temperature increment was obvious in Hanzhong during 1955～2015, with extreme maximum temperature and minimum temperature increasing at rates of 0.06 ℃/10 a and 0.45 ℃/10 a. The occurrence of summer days, tropical nights, warm days, warm nights and growing season length duration had increased by 2.91, 3.31, 0.67, 2.66 and 3.89 d/10 a, while the frequency of frost days, cool nights, cool days and diurnal temperature range showed decreasing trends at rates of-4.41,-0.57,-1.93 d/10 a and-0.15 ℃/10 a. The change years of the extreme temperature indices were different in Hanzhong, mainly from the 1960 s to the 1970 s and from the 1990 s to the early 21 st century.
Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature of Hanzhong meteorological station from 1955～2015, eleven indices of extreme temperature were calculated by using RClimDex. The change trend and mutation characteristics of eleven indices of extreme temperature were analyzed by the linear regression and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that the temperature increment was obvious in Hanzhong during 1955～2015, with extreme maximum temperature and minimum temperature increasing at rates of 0.06 ℃/10 a and 0.45 ℃/10 a. The occurrence of summer days, tropical nights, warm days, warm nights and growing season length duration had increased by 2.91, 3.31, 0.67, 2.66 and 3.89 d/10 a, while the frequency of frost days, cool nights, cool days and diurnal temperature range showed decreasing trends at rates of-4.41,-0.57,-1.93 d/10 a and-0.15 ℃/10 a. The change years of the extreme temperature indices were different in Hanzhong, mainly from the 1960 s to the 1970 s and from the 1990 s to the early 21 st century.
引文
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[2] 中国气象局.中国气候变化蓝皮书[M].北京:中国气象局气候变化中心,2018.
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[4] Alexander L V,Zhang X B,Peterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation [J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2006,111(5):1-22.
[5] Choi G Y,Collins D,Ren G Y,et al.Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asian-Pacific network region 1955-2007[J].International Journal of Climatology,2009,29(13):1906-1925.
[6] 赵军,师银芳,王大为,等.1961～2008年中国大陆极端气温时空变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(3):52-56.
[7] 蒋卓亚.中国极端气温及降水事件的时空特征研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2017.
[8] 朱大运,熊康宁,肖华.贵州省极端气温时空变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2018,40(8):1672-1683.
[9] 刘学智,李王成,苏振娟,等.1962～2015年宁夏平均气温和极端气温的变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(5):1173-1180.
[10] 赵培培,张明军,王圣杰,等.1960-2012年中国天山山区极端气温的变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):190-197.
[11] 吴灿,赵景波,王格慧.黄河流域极端气温指数的气候演变特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):525-535.
[12] 史帆,赵景波.1960～2013年陕南地区极端气温指数变化研究[J].江西农业学报,2016,28(7):96-104.
[13] 国家统计局.2018中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2018.
[14] 刘金祥.可持续发展理念视角下的我国城市化[N].中国科学报,2012-09-03.
[15] 李双双,杨赛霓.1960～2014年北京极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学,2015,35(12):1640-1647.
[16] 吕婷,武胜利,刘强吉,等.1952～2013年吐鲁番市极端气温变化规律研究[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(3):606-614.
[17] 许小明,徐玉霞,雷雯.近60年宝鸡市主城区极端天气变化特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):67-74.
[18] 孙娴,魏娜,郝丽,等.近60年西安市极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].西北大学学报:自然科学版,2014,44(6):997-1000.
[19] 王志杰,苏嫄.1951-2010年汉中市气温变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):169-174.
[20] 胡江波,袁再勤,苏俊辉,等.汉中地区主要气象灾害时空分布特征分析[J].陕西农业科学,2012,58(5):154-157.
[21] Karl T R,Nicholls N,Ghazi A.CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes:workshop summary[J].Climatic Change,1999,42(1):3-7.
[22] Alexander L V,Zhang X B,Peterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2006,11(5):1042-1063.
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[24] 陈建宇,邵天杰,赵景波.陕西榆林地区1954～2013年极端气温变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(5):1426-1434.