命令控制型环境政策改善了中国城市环境质量吗?——来自“两控区”政策的“准自然实验”
|
摘要
利用1997—2015年的地级市数据,借助双重差分方法和空间计量模型,以SO_2排放量的对数值为衡量指标,对"两控区"政策的效果进行了实证检验。结果表明,"两控区"政策的实施使区内城市的SO_2排放量减少了23.4%,整体来看政策效果较为显著;然而,分区域的检验却发现政策效果在不同地区存在着明显差异。同时,利用空间计量分析,发现地方政府竞争是阻碍环境质量改善和削弱环境规制政策效果的重要因素。因此,环境政策应从区域管理转向全域管理,从行政规制逐步转向经济手段与行政、法律手段相结合,同时,应通过促进地方政府的合作与协调,抑制地区间过度竞争,更好地促进环境质量的改善和环境政策目标的实现。
Based on the prefecture-level data from 1997—2015,this paper used the methods of difference-in-difference(DID) and the spatial econometric model to evaluate the effect of TCZ policy,with the logarithm of SO_2 emissions as the indicator.The results suggested that the implementation of TCZ policy made SO_2 emissions decrease 23.4% in TCZ compared with cities out of TCZ,which was significant on the whole.However,separate tests of different regions found significantly distinct impacts of this policy,meanwhile the results of spatial econometric model suggested local government competition is an important factor hindering the improvement of environmental quality and weakening the effectiveness of environmental regulation policies.Therefore,environmental policies should shift from regional management to overall management,from administrative regulation to the combination of economic,administrative and legal means.At the same time,the central government should motivate the cooperation and coordination of local governments and restrain excessive competition among regions so as to improve the environmental quality and achieve environmental policy goals.
Based on the prefecture-level data from 1997—2015,this paper used the methods of difference-in-difference(DID) and the spatial econometric model to evaluate the effect of TCZ policy,with the logarithm of SO_2 emissions as the indicator.The results suggested that the implementation of TCZ policy made SO_2 emissions decrease 23.4% in TCZ compared with cities out of TCZ,which was significant on the whole.However,separate tests of different regions found significantly distinct impacts of this policy,meanwhile the results of spatial econometric model suggested local government competition is an important factor hindering the improvement of environmental quality and weakening the effectiveness of environmental regulation policies.Therefore,environmental policies should shift from regional management to overall management,from administrative regulation to the combination of economic,administrative and legal means.At the same time,the central government should motivate the cooperation and coordination of local governments and restrain excessive competition among regions so as to improve the environmental quality and achieve environmental policy goals.
引文
[1] 国务院.国务院关于两控区酸雨和二氧化碳污染防治“十五”计划的批复[Z].中华人民共和国国务院公报,2002-09-19.
[2] Zhao,X.,H.Yin,Y.Zhao.Impact of environmental regulations on the efficiency and CO2 emissions of power plants in China[J].Applied Energy,2015,149.
[3] Davis,L.W.The effect of driving restrictions on air quality in Mexico City[J].Journal of Political Economy,2008(1).
[4] Chen,Z.,E.Matthew.The Consequences of Spatially Differentiated Water Pollution Regulation in China[Z].NBER,2016.
[5] Cumberland,J.H.Interregional pollution spillovers and consistency of environmental policy[A].Regional Environmental Policy[C].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1980.
[6] Oates,W.E.,R.M.Schwab.Economic competition among jurisdictions:Efficiency enhancing or distortion inducing?[J].Journal of Public Economics,1988(3).
[7] Breton,A.Competitive Governments:An Economic Theory of Politics and Public Finance[M].Combridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[8] Anselin,L.Spatial effects in econometric practice in environmental and resource economics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2001(3).
[9] 杨海生,陈少凌,周永章.地方政府竞争与环境政策——来自中国省份数据的证据[J].南方经济,2008(6).
[10]陈思霞,卢洪友.辖区间竞争与策略性环境公共支出[J].财贸研究,2014(1).
[11]李胜兰,初善冰,申晨.地方政府竞争、环境规制与区域生态效率[J].世界经济,2014(4).
[12]刘建民,陈霞,吴金光.财政分权、地方政府竞争与环境污染——基于272个城市数据的异质性与动态效应分析[J].财政研究,2015(9).
[13]王艳丽,钟奥.地方政府竞争、环境规制与高耗能产业转移——基于“逐底竞争”和“污染避难所”假说的联合检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2016(8).
[14]李晓龙,徐鲲.地方政府竞争、环境质量与空间效应[J].软科学,2016(3).
[15]马春文,武赫.地方政府竞争与环境污染[J].财经科学,2016(8).
[16]Tanaka,S.Environmental regulations on air pollution in China and their impact on infant mortality[J].Journal of Health Economics,2015,42.
[17]Cai,X.,Y.Lu,M.Wu,et al.Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2016,123.
[18]Chen,Y.J.,P.Li,Y.Lu.Accountability,Career Incentives,and Local Bureaucrats:Evidence of a Target-Based Performance Evaluation System in China[Z].Leekuan Yew School of Public Policy Research Paper,No.16-11,2016.
[19]汤韵,梁若冰.两控区政策与二氧化硫减排——基于倍差法的经验研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2012(6).
[20]吴明琴,周诗敏,陈家昌.环境规制与经济增长可以双赢吗——基于我国“两控区”的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2016(6).
(1)区域划分依据1986年全国人大六届四次会议上对东部、中部、西部地区的首次划分:东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省(市);中西部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南、广西、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等19个省(区)。
[2] Zhao,X.,H.Yin,Y.Zhao.Impact of environmental regulations on the efficiency and CO2 emissions of power plants in China[J].Applied Energy,2015,149.
[3] Davis,L.W.The effect of driving restrictions on air quality in Mexico City[J].Journal of Political Economy,2008(1).
[4] Chen,Z.,E.Matthew.The Consequences of Spatially Differentiated Water Pollution Regulation in China[Z].NBER,2016.
[5] Cumberland,J.H.Interregional pollution spillovers and consistency of environmental policy[A].Regional Environmental Policy[C].London:Palgrave Macmillan,1980.
[6] Oates,W.E.,R.M.Schwab.Economic competition among jurisdictions:Efficiency enhancing or distortion inducing?[J].Journal of Public Economics,1988(3).
[7] Breton,A.Competitive Governments:An Economic Theory of Politics and Public Finance[M].Combridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[8] Anselin,L.Spatial effects in econometric practice in environmental and resource economics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2001(3).
[9] 杨海生,陈少凌,周永章.地方政府竞争与环境政策——来自中国省份数据的证据[J].南方经济,2008(6).
[10]陈思霞,卢洪友.辖区间竞争与策略性环境公共支出[J].财贸研究,2014(1).
[11]李胜兰,初善冰,申晨.地方政府竞争、环境规制与区域生态效率[J].世界经济,2014(4).
[12]刘建民,陈霞,吴金光.财政分权、地方政府竞争与环境污染——基于272个城市数据的异质性与动态效应分析[J].财政研究,2015(9).
[13]王艳丽,钟奥.地方政府竞争、环境规制与高耗能产业转移——基于“逐底竞争”和“污染避难所”假说的联合检验[J].山西财经大学学报,2016(8).
[14]李晓龙,徐鲲.地方政府竞争、环境质量与空间效应[J].软科学,2016(3).
[15]马春文,武赫.地方政府竞争与环境污染[J].财经科学,2016(8).
[16]Tanaka,S.Environmental regulations on air pollution in China and their impact on infant mortality[J].Journal of Health Economics,2015,42.
[17]Cai,X.,Y.Lu,M.Wu,et al.Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2016,123.
[18]Chen,Y.J.,P.Li,Y.Lu.Accountability,Career Incentives,and Local Bureaucrats:Evidence of a Target-Based Performance Evaluation System in China[Z].Leekuan Yew School of Public Policy Research Paper,No.16-11,2016.
[19]汤韵,梁若冰.两控区政策与二氧化硫减排——基于倍差法的经验研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2012(6).
[20]吴明琴,周诗敏,陈家昌.环境规制与经济增长可以双赢吗——基于我国“两控区”的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2016(6).
(1)区域划分依据1986年全国人大六届四次会议上对东部、中部、西部地区的首次划分:东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省(市);中西部地区包括山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南、广西、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等19个省(区)。