冷空气影响台风暴雨的中尺度分析及数值模拟
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摘要
利用常规探测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°6 h间隔的FNL再分析资料、NCEP GFS 0.5°×0.5°6 h间隔资料、多普勒雷达和中尺度地面自动站资料,对2014年"麦德姆"台风暴雨对流系统的天气背景、触发机制以及生消演变过程进行分析,并用中尺度数值模式WRF进行侵入冷空气强度的数值敏感性试验。研究结果表明:(1)强降水发生在"麦德姆"北上变性的过程中,冷空气的侵入使得台风热力结构改变,台风外围的大气斜压性增强,层结更不稳定,有利于中尺度对流系统发生发展。(2)对流系统的触发首先是由边界层内冷空气侵入造成的,冷空气与暖空气的对峙使得江淮东部辐合加强、降水回波稳定少动。(3)数值敏感性试验结果表明,冷空气侵入使台风外围层结更加不稳定,有利于产生深厚的垂直运动,使中尺度对流系统的生命史长、强度强。若入侵冷空气过弱,对流系统中的垂直运动弱,对流强度弱;若入侵冷空气过强,虽然对流系统中能发展出强的垂直运动,但垂直运动维持的时间短,中尺度对流系统的生命史短,不利于产生持续性强降水。
Based on observation data, NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°) 6 h interval FNL reanalysis data、NCEP GFS(0.5°×0.5°) 6 h interval data,Doppler radar and mesoscale ground automatic station data, the environmental condition, triggering mechanism and the evolution of the convection system in the typhoon "Matmo" rainstorm in 2014 were analyzed. The numerical sensitivity experiments for intrusion of cold air intensity were also conducted. The results are as follows.(1) Rainstrom occurred during the process of typhoon transition. The invasion of cold air makes the thermal structure of the typhoon change, atmospheric baroclinic enhance in the periphery of typhoon and the stratification become more unstable, which is beneficial to the development of the mesoscale convective system.(2) The trigger of the convective system is caused by the intrusion of cold air in the boundary layer. The confrontation between cold air and warm air masses causes a strong convergence in the Eastern JiangHuai, which makes the precipitation echo persist.(3) The results of numerical sensitivity experiments show that the intrusion of cold air makes the outer region of the typhoon more statically unstable, which is conducive to the formation of deep vertical motion, prolonging and strengthening mesoscale convective systems. If cold air were too weak, the vertical motion in the convective system would be weak and so would the convection intensity. If cold air were too strong, although strong vertical motion could be developed in the convective system, the life span of the mesoscale convective system would be short, because the short time vertical motion could not be conducive to persistent strong precipitation.
Based on observation data, NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°) 6 h interval FNL reanalysis data、NCEP GFS(0.5°×0.5°) 6 h interval data,Doppler radar and mesoscale ground automatic station data, the environmental condition, triggering mechanism and the evolution of the convection system in the typhoon "Matmo" rainstorm in 2014 were analyzed. The numerical sensitivity experiments for intrusion of cold air intensity were also conducted. The results are as follows.(1) Rainstrom occurred during the process of typhoon transition. The invasion of cold air makes the thermal structure of the typhoon change, atmospheric baroclinic enhance in the periphery of typhoon and the stratification become more unstable, which is beneficial to the development of the mesoscale convective system.(2) The trigger of the convective system is caused by the intrusion of cold air in the boundary layer. The confrontation between cold air and warm air masses causes a strong convergence in the Eastern JiangHuai, which makes the precipitation echo persist.(3) The results of numerical sensitivity experiments show that the intrusion of cold air makes the outer region of the typhoon more statically unstable, which is conducive to the formation of deep vertical motion, prolonging and strengthening mesoscale convective systems. If cold air were too weak, the vertical motion in the convective system would be weak and so would the convection intensity. If cold air were too strong, although strong vertical motion could be developed in the convective system, the life span of the mesoscale convective system would be short, because the short time vertical motion could not be conducive to persistent strong precipitation.
引文
曹晓岗,王慧,漆梁波.2014.台风与冷空气对“13.10”上海特大暴雨过程的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,33(4):351-362
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丛春华,陈联寿,雷小途,等.2012.热带气旋远距离暴雨的研究[J].气象学报,70(4):717-727
郭达烽,包慧濛,周芳,等.2014.空心台风“麦德姆”(2014)引发的江西局地暴雨过程分析[J].气象与减灾研究,37(4):24-32
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雷小途,陈联寿.2001.热带气旋的登陆及其与中纬度环流系统相互作用的研究[J].气象学报,59(5):602-615
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陆佳麟,郭品文.2012.入侵冷空气强度对台风变性过程的影响[J].气象科学,32(4):355-364
钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇.2005.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,63(1):57-68
任丽,赵玲,韩冰,张月.2019.台风狮子山与中纬度系统相互作用所致暴雨成因分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,13(1):44-51
汤鹏宇,何宏让,阳向荣,等.2015.北京“7.21”特大暴雨中的干侵入分析研究[J].高原气象,34(1):210-219
吴志彦,李宏江,石燕清,等.2016.山东半岛一次台风暴雨过程的冷空气侵入特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,35(1):61-68
许映龙,张玲,高拴柱.2010.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象,36(7):43-49
姚晨,张雪晨,毛冬艳.2010.滁州地区不同类型特大暴雨过程的对比分析[J].气象,36(11):18-25
姚增权,魏鼎文.1985.冷空气对台风影响的流体动力学模拟实验研究[J].气象学报,43(1):53-62
Knox J L.1955.The storm Hazel synoptic resume of its development as it approached Southern Ontario[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,36(1):239-246
Schumacher R S,Galarneau T J,Bosart L F.2011.Distant effects of a recurving tropical cyclone on Rainfall in a Midlatitude Convective System:A High-Impact Predecessor Rain Event[J].Monthly Weather Review,139(2):650-667
Sekioda M.1956.A hypothesis on complex of tropical and extratropical cyclones for typhoon in the middle latitudes[J].J Meteor Soc,34(2):276-287
Wang Y,Fudeyasu H.2009.The Role of Typhoon Songda(2004)in Producing Distantly Located Heavy Rainfall in Japan[J].Monthly Weather Review,137(11):3 699-3 716
陈联寿,丁一汇.1979.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社
陈鹏,庞玥,张虹,等.2017.台风与冷空气对重庆“9.17”大暴雨的影响分析[J].暴雨灾害,36(3):227-234
丛春华,陈联寿,雷小途,等.2012.热带气旋远距离暴雨的研究[J].气象学报,70(4):717-727
郭达烽,包慧濛,周芳,等.2014.空心台风“麦德姆”(2014)引发的江西局地暴雨过程分析[J].气象与减灾研究,37(4):24-32
韩瑛,伍荣生.2008.冷空气入侵对热带气旋发生发展的影响[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1 321-1 332
何立富,许爱华,陈涛.2009.“泰利”台风低压大暴雨过程冷空气与地形的作用[J].气象科学,37(4):385-392
雷小途,陈联寿.2001.热带气旋的登陆及其与中纬度环流系统相互作用的研究[J].气象学报,59(5):602-615
梁必骐,梁经萍,温之平.1995.中国台风灾害及其影响的研究[J].自然灾害学报,4(1):84-91
刘会荣,李崇银.2010.干侵入对济南“7.18”大暴雨的作用[J].大气科学,34(2):374-386
刘雯,李建刚,杨莲梅.2017.2016年夏末南疆地区中尺度对流系统(MCS)活动特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,11(4):9-16
陆佳麟,郭品文.2012.入侵冷空气强度对台风变性过程的影响[J].气象科学,32(4):355-364
钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇.2005.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验[J].气象学报,63(1):57-68
任丽,赵玲,韩冰,张月.2019.台风狮子山与中纬度系统相互作用所致暴雨成因分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,13(1):44-51
汤鹏宇,何宏让,阳向荣,等.2015.北京“7.21”特大暴雨中的干侵入分析研究[J].高原气象,34(1):210-219
吴志彦,李宏江,石燕清,等.2016.山东半岛一次台风暴雨过程的冷空气侵入特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,35(1):61-68
许映龙,张玲,高拴柱.2010.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考[J].气象,36(7):43-49
姚晨,张雪晨,毛冬艳.2010.滁州地区不同类型特大暴雨过程的对比分析[J].气象,36(11):18-25
姚增权,魏鼎文.1985.冷空气对台风影响的流体动力学模拟实验研究[J].气象学报,43(1):53-62
Knox J L.1955.The storm Hazel synoptic resume of its development as it approached Southern Ontario[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,36(1):239-246
Schumacher R S,Galarneau T J,Bosart L F.2011.Distant effects of a recurving tropical cyclone on Rainfall in a Midlatitude Convective System:A High-Impact Predecessor Rain Event[J].Monthly Weather Review,139(2):650-667
Sekioda M.1956.A hypothesis on complex of tropical and extratropical cyclones for typhoon in the middle latitudes[J].J Meteor Soc,34(2):276-287
Wang Y,Fudeyasu H.2009.The Role of Typhoon Songda(2004)in Producing Distantly Located Heavy Rainfall in Japan[J].Monthly Weather Review,137(11):3 699-3 716